2025 March Madness Favorites, Smart Picks and Dark Horses

The 2025 March Madness Tournament tips off on Tuesday, March 18, when the First Four battle out to see which teams make it to the final field of 64. Then, on Thursday, things heat up with the tournament’s first round. College basketball odds to win March Madness have been set. Duke and Florida, the ACC and SEC tournament winners, are the solid +280 and +390 favorites. Houston and Auburn offer decent odds at +600 and +500, while a couple of dark horses should be on your radar to upset the faves. Check out college basketball odds for the favorites, smart picks, and top dark horses for this year’s tournament.

Top 2024 March Madness Betting Picks

THE BRACKET #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/fo6lA8hJ7g

— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 16, 2025

2025 March Madness Favorites

• Florida Gators +390
• Duke Blue Devils +280

Among the two chalk teams, there is a clear choice and one that we shouldn’t touch. Cooper Flagg will play in Duke’s first game at the NCAA Tournament this week, which means the ankle injury he suffered in the ACC Tournament wasn’t severe enough for him to sit on the bench.

Still, it’s tough to back the Dookies at less than 3-to-1 odds, knowing Cooper may or may not be one hundred percent. Not only that but although a phenom, the kid is still, well, a kid. He’s a freshman, so his body will tell him it’s time to rest.

It happens to all first-year students in the NCAA Tournament. So by the time the Blue Devils make the Final Four, Cooper could be ready to take a siesta if they even go that far.

Florida is a warrior of a basketball team. The Gators survived and thrived in the toughest conference this year, the loaded SEC. Florida beat Auburn, Alabama twice, and Tennessee this season. So among the two chalk teams, the Gators are the ones to back to cut down the nets.

2025 March Madness Favorites Pick: Florida Gators

2025 March Madness Smart Picks

• Houston Cougars +600
• Auburn Tigers +500

Auburn tailed off toward the end of the regular season. Then, the Tigers failed to win the SEC Tournament. We shouldn’t just write off Bruce Pearl’s squad, though.

Any team with Johni Broome is good enough to win the NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament. Broome also gets a lot of help because the Tigers have role players and bench players who know their assignment. So Auburn can win the title.

But they aren’t the most brilliant pick. Kelvin Sampson’s Houston Cougars are the smartest play to win the NCAA Tournament. Sampson preaches defense, and this Cougs squad can play some serious defense. However, unlike past Houston teams that rolled into the Big Dance, this Houston squad can also score in bunches.

Houston lost a single game in the better-than-many believe Big 12. This accomplishment means the Cougars blasted Arizona, Kansas, BYU, Baylor, and Iowa State. Those are solid teams that can go far in the NCAA Tournament.

Guar L.J. Cryer is having a great season. He’s one of the reasons the Cougars average over 74 points per game, which is high for a team that plays the type of defense that Houston plays. Backing Houston is the imaginative play to win March Madness.

2025 March Madness Smart Pick: Houston Cougars

2025 March Madness Dark Horses

• Alabama Crimson Tide +2000
• St. John’s Red Storm +3200

You can’t go wrong backing the Alabama Crimson Tide to cut down the nets. The Tide came oh so close last season. This season, they are a more cohesive bunch that averages an astonishing 91.1 points per game.

Regarding guard play, Marc Sears is as good as any in the NCAA Tournament. His leadership skills will take Bama far. Maybe even to an upset win over Duke in the Elite Eight. But Sears and his mates can get caught up in the run-and-gun system, meaning elite defensive teams will take advantage of a shoot-happy squad like Bama.

The better dark horse play is the dominant St. John’s Red Storm. Rick Pitino’s second season as head coach of St. John’s has been excellent. St. John’s rolled through the Big East, the conference that gave us the Connecticut Huskies in 2023 and 2024.

The Red Storm lost four games. Two of those losses were by a point to Creighton and Baylor. Another loss came by 2 points against Villanova on the road. The fourth loss was to Georgia early in the season by 4 points.

St. John’s does everything well, and there isn’t a better tournament coach than Hall of Famer Rick Pitino. RP has a serious team that can definitely upset the favorites and win the NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament. Back to the top dark horse to finish first.

2025 March Madness Dark Horse Pick: St. John’s Red Storm

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READ MORE: 2025 March Madness Odds Update