How Do You Handle Longshot Bets

By Hank Blaine • June 30, 2023

When it comes to betting on sports, we have to mix favorites with longshots. If all we do is back chalk, there’s no way to turn a profit. This is especially true when it comes to betting on moneylines. Check out the best way for us to handle longshot bets.

Best Way to Handle Longshot Bets

1. Bet half your usual unit

Spreads lines in football and basketball don’t really have many longshots. The spread is there to even the wager. So if a football teams is -6, the idea is the favored team should win by at least 6.

However, when it comes to longshot money line plays, there are pitfalls. We have to be selective.

Selective often means we lower our bet. Cutting our bet unit in half on longshot money line plays helps us manage risk. Most ML longshots lose. So we must pick our spots and then be careful with our investments.

2. Handicap the line for value

Just like we do when betting against the spread, we must look for value when we handicap money line longshots. Value can come in the form of a false favorite, an underdog having an edge at home, or simple handicapping intuition.

One of the best places to find value is against undefeated NFL teams on the road against a squad they’re supposed to beat. Often, the NFL chalk will bounce a week after a signature victory.

Longshot opportunities abound with this angle.

3. If the public likes your longshot bet, stay away

The public loves to bet favorites. So when the public jumps on a longshot, we should consider it a negative.

Anytime we agree with the public, we must study why. We are professional handicappers. Or if we’re not pros, we at least have more knowledge than most casual sports bettors. So we have to think hard if the public agrees with us. This goes for ML and ATS longshot plays.

4. Determine if the longshot is a true longshot

Number four is as important as it gets. There is such a thing as a false longshot. Not all longshots offer fair odds.

Study horse race handicapping if you want to learn more. In horses races with full fields, there are longshots with a chance and those we must disregard. Finding the right longshot to bet in a horse race with ten or more participants leads to profit. Betting bad longshots, underlay longshots, leads to a depressed bankroll.

5. Don’t bet straight up, instead, put your longshot in a small investment parlay

If you’re having trouble finding winning longshot plays, stop betting longshots straight up. Instead, play parlays and put your longshot into the parlay with your top favorite bet.

By using this method, you control how much you wager on longshots. You also stand to make a lot of money on your parlay should your longshot play come through, while using most of your funds towards making wagers for which you are more comfortable.