The Breeders’ Cup is often a great day for longshot bettors. Because the quality of each race is so high, morning line favorites don’t often run into the winner’s circle. In fact, in most races, unless the chalk is a horse like 2022 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Flightline, the winner usually produces at least a $12 win mutuel. This year’s Breeders’ Cup should be no different, which is why in this blog, we assess each favorite’s chances of winning every BC race.

2023 Breeders’ Cup Race Info

READ: Top-Class International Field Assembled for $6 Million @Longines #BreedersCup Classic

https://t.co/f3UtMZEcT5 pic.twitter.com/00ssElBcqZ

— Breeders' Cup (@BreedersCup) October 31, 2023

• When: Friday, Nov 3 – Saturday, Nov 4
• Where: Santa Anita Park, Arcadia, California
• TV/Streaming: NBC / Peacock

READ MORE: 2023 Breeders’ Cup Dark Horses and Longshots

A Closer Look at the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Favorites to Win

Friday, November 3

• Juvenile Sprint – Big Evs +300
• Juvenile Fillies – Tamara -125
• Juvenile Fillies Turf – She Feels Pretty +400
• Juvenile – Locked +350
• Juvenile Turf – River Tiber +300

Big Evs is a good horse but the Juvenile Sprint is wide-open. A horse Crimson Advocate, which won at Royal Ascot over the summer, offers +400 odds. Tiger Belle, +1500, won a 5 furlong turf race in 55.3 seconds. The chalk to win the Juvenile Turf Sprint is a bad bet.

Tamara crushed the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby field, beating her foes by 6 ½ lengths. The race was at 7 furlongs but the Mandella runner should have no trouble going 1 1/16 miles. Still, Tamara must go around 2 turns for the first time and Candied, trained by Todd Pletcher, projects to get a fantastic inside trip after breaking from post position 1. At the odds, Tamara is a bad bet to win the Juvenile Fillies.

She Feels Pretty can win this, but Aida O’Brien saddles +1500 shot Content. Phil D’Amato trained Laulne is also at 15-to-1 odds. Chad Brown has a +600 choice in Grade 2 Miss Grillo winner Hard to Justify. Looking for a price beyond the fave makes sense.

Prince of Monaco is undefeated, Timberlake won the Grade 1 Champagne by 4 ¼ lengths, Muth won the Grade 1 American Pharoah by 3 ¾ lengths, and General Partner comes from the Chad Brown barn. So why is Locked favored? Who knows.

Endlessly is 3-for-3 and offers 5-to-1 odds. The Mike McCarthy trainee also loves Santa Anita. So although River Tiber hails from the Aidan O’Brien barn, the chalk is a play against.

Saturday, November 4

• Dirt Mile – Cody’s Wish +180
• Filly & Mare Turf – Inspiral +250
• Filly & Mare Sprint – Good Night Olive +120
• Mile – Songline +250
• Distaff – Idiomatic +250
• Turf – Mostahdaf +250
• Classic – Arabian Knight +300
• Turf Sprint – Live In The Dream +450
• Sprint – Elite Power +180

Cody’s Wish could for sure win the Dirt Mile, but the Bill Mott trained runner appears to be at the end of his form cycle. Cody is a bad bet to beat dirt milers like Skippylongstocking, Algiers, Preakness winner National Treasure, and Charge It.

Inspiral doesn’t have the breeding to want 1 ¼ miles. Inspiral would probably have been best in the BC Mile. If we throw out Inspiral, the BC Filly and Mare Turf is wide open. +2000 With The Moonlight, 12-to-1 Moira, +1200 Lumiere Rock, and 8-to-1 Fev Rover can all win.

Good Night Olive shouldn’t be the favorite. The Chad Brown runner is 6-to-5 but didn’t even win her last race. Not only that, she’s a proven bouncer, which means she will run worse in this than she did in the Grade 1 Ballerina. Society, which has won her last couple of races by 10 ½ and 5 ½ lengths, should be the chalk.

The Breeders’ Cup Mile historically produces an overlay winner. But in 2023, it’s going to be difficult to beat Japanese trained Songline. The chalk has won all of her races over the turf. She’s won 5-of-9 over the turf at the mile distance. Songline is a legit Breeders’ Cup favorite.

Brad Cox trained Idiomatic is running great, but she’s got top competition in this. Randomized, Adare Manor, Pretty Mischievous and Search Results can upset the Cox runner.

Morning line chalk Mostahdaf has won 10-of-16 over the turf with a couple of second place finishes. The John Gosden trained runner is on a 2-race win streak. Both races were Grade 1 events. The chalk looks solid.

Arabian Knight can for sure wire the Classic field. Although the odds are low, the favorite offers 3-to-1 and is a Santa Anita Park based runner. The Baffert three-year-old is also the second best bred horse in the Classic after Dreamlike. So the morning line odds are fair.

The +450 odds on favorite Live In The Dream means the morning line oddsmaker has no idea who horseplayers will choose as the favorite. Live In The Dream does offer decent odds to win and does have a shot. So if you like, go for it.

At +180 odds, Elite Power is a bad bet to turn around the form. Elite fell in her last to +400 Gunite. Dr. Schivel, Speed Boat Beach, Nakatomi, The Chosen Vron, and Hoist the Gold can win this.

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