Philadelphia star Bryce Harper homered in Monday’s NLCS Game 1 to propel the defending National League champs to a first game win. The Phillies hope to push their championship series lead to 2 when Harper and the Phillies throw down against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Tuesday night. Will Philadelphia make the series 2-0? Or will Arizona storm back? Check out MLB odds, analysis, and a free pick for D’Backs at Phillies.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies 2023 MLB NLCS Game 2 Information

The @Phillies go around the horn to phinish Game 1 of the #NLCS. pic.twitter.com/HguBFx9UT1

— MLB (@MLB) October 17, 2023

• When: Tuesday, October 17, 2023, 8:07 PM ET
• Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
• TV: TBS
• Radio: KMVP Arizona Sports 98.7 (Diamondbacks) // WIP 94.1 FM (Phillies)
• Live Stream: MLB.tv
• MLB Odds: Diamondbacks (+141) // Phillies (-167)

Why bet on the Arizona Diamondbacks?

35-year-old Merrill Kelly gets the start and although the stats imply he struggles versus Philadelphia, a deep dive reveals Kelly could throw a decent game.

Kelly has faced Arizona batters just 59 times. He’s allowed 17 total hits for a .288 batting average. However, 9 of the 17 hits and 6-of-10 runs batted in, came off the wood swung by Trea Turner.

Without Tuner’s excellent at-bats, Kelly would have dominated the Phillies lineup. Harper is 1-of-5 versus Kelly. So Merrill could throw a great game on Tuesday night.

Why bet on the Philadelphia Phillies?

Arizona struggled against Zack Wheeler on Monday night. On Tuesday night, they face the Phillies other ace starter in Aaron Nola.

Nola finished the regular season going 12-9 and striking out over 200 batter. During the postseason, Nola has been brilliant.

Versus Miami, Aaron yielded 3 hits, struck out 3, and walked 1 without giving up a run in 7 innings. The Phillies beat the Marlins 7-1.

Then in his second start against Atlanta, Nola pitched a decent 5.2 innings, and gave up 2 earned runs off 6 hits. Aaron struck out 9 ATL batters.

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Betting Trends

• Arizona is 5-1 SU in the last 6 games.
• Diamondbacks are 1-5 SU in its last 6 games against Philadelphia.
• The total went over in 12 of Arizona’s last 17 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia.
• Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in the last 8 games.
• Phillies are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home.
• The total went over in 12 of Philadelphia’s last 18 games against Arizona.

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies 2023 MLB NLCS Game 2 Betting Prediction

3 of Philadelphia’s 5 runs came off the end of Harper’s bat. Bryce scored a run and knocked in 2. So Arizona’s loss can be ascribed to a single bad pitch from Zac Gallen.

Without Bryce’s heroics, Philadelphia may have lost Game 1. In Game 2, the chances of Bryce providing the same heroics are low.

Pitchers almost always have the edge when facing a batter that isn’t familiar with them. In this case, Harper and the rest of the Phillies’ line-up doesn’t know Kelly as well as they knew Gallen.

Not only that, but the 35-year-old has made adjustments this season to propel him into the top two on the D’Backs starting rotation. Also, Kelly was brilliant when giving up 3 hits and zero runs in over 6 innings versus the Dodgers in his lone start.

During the regular season, Merrill posted a 3.29 ERA. Behind Kelly’s arm, and because the D’Backs should score at least 2 runs off Nola before garnering 2 or 3 against Philadelphia’s bullpen, Arizona evens the series.

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