One the UFC’s best rivalries resumes on Saturday at O2 Arena in London, England when Leon Edwards defends the UFC welterweight strap against Kamaru Usman. Who wins the third fight between the two best welterweights at UFC? Before Usman and Edwards settle their differences, Justin Gaethje returns to the Octagon in a bout against Rafael Fiziev. See below for UFC odds, analysis, and a free pick for the main card bouts at UFC 286.

UFC 286 Event Info

ROUND 3 #UFC286 pic.twitter.com/fWjqdKCRR7

— UFC (@ufc) March 16, 2023

• When: Saturday, Mar. 18, 2023
• Where: The O2 Arena, London, England
• TV: PPV
• Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass

READ MORE: UFC 286 Sleeper Picks

UFC 286 Main Card Odds

UFC 286 Main Card Preview

Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze

The underdog in this has a couple of physical advantages. Dolidze is 2 inches taller and has a 2- inch reach advantage. Dolidze is also 12-1 and has taken home the victory in 4 straight.

Vettori has an 18-6-1 record. He’s lost 2-of-3. Both losses were by unanimous decision, which is why he’s the chalk in this. Still, it’s tough to back Marvin at the -280 odds. Dolidze is the pick.

UFC 286 Pick: Roman Dolidze

Jennifer Maia vs. Casey O’Neill

Based on the odds, Maia versus O’Neill should be one of UFC 286’s main card’s most competitive bouts.

Maia, the underdog in this, has lost 3-of-4. Granted, the losses were against tough opponents, and 1 of the losses happened versus Valentina Schevchenko in a championship fight in 2020, but the underdog is 2 inches shorter and has a 5 inches reach disadvantage.

Casey O’Neill is 9-0. She’s 3-0 via knockout or technical knockout and 2-0 via submission wins. She also has the aforementioned physical advantages. The chalk is an overlay at the price.

UFC 286 Pick: Casey O’Neill

Gunnar Nelson vs. Bryan Barberena

Underdog Bryan Barberena heads into this off a loss. Barberena faced Rafael Dos Anjos at a UFC Fight Night on Dec. 3 last year and lost via second-round submission. Before losing to Dos Anjos, Barberena had won 3 straight, so there’s a reason to believe he can bounce back in this.

Favorite Gunnar Nelson has lost 3-of-5. Gunnar won his last bout via unanimous decision over Takashi Sato. Nelson has a massive advantage in the sense he’s 12-0 via submission victories. If the chalk gets this to the ground, and Nelson should, he’ll force a tap out.

UFC 286 Pick: Gunnar Nelson

Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev

2 of Justin Gaethje’s 4 losses have come to his last 3 fights. Gaethje suffered a submission loss to one of the greatest of all time, Khabib Nurmagomedov, in 2020. Then in May 2022, Charles Oliveira beat Gaethje via first round submission.

Rafael Fiziev has just a single loss on his record. Although Fiziev gives up 3 inches in height, he’s fighting much better and has been more active than Gaethje. Fiziev is the pick.

UFC 286 Pick: Rafael Fiziev

Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usmano // UFC Welterweight Championship

Champion Leon Edwards and challenger Kamaru Usman first fought in 2015. Usman beat Edwards via unanimous decision.

Leon hasn’t lost since. Edwards is on a 10-match winning streak with a no contest. Usman was undefeated before losing to Edwards in this last bout.

Kamaru deserves to be the chalk. If Edwards hadn’t knocked Usman out in the fifth round, Kamaru probably would have won via decision. But at the odds, Edwards is the better play. Leon always adjusts. So if he made further adjustments heading into this, he can make it back-to-back wins versus his rival.

UFC 286 Pick: Leon Edwards

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