Two of college football’s most surprising teams step onto the gridiron at the Superdome in New Orleans on Saturday when the Baylor Bears and Ole Miss Rebels throw down in the 2021 Sugar Bowl. Baylor won the Big 12 after beating Oklahoma State in the championship. Ole Miss played great in 2021, losing just 2 games this season to Arkansas and Alabama. Which team gets it done in Saturday’s prime time affair? Check out NCAAF odds, analysis, and a free pick for Baylor versus Mississippi.
Georgia vs. Alabama 2022 CFP National Championship Game Information
- When: Mon, Jan. 10 at 8:00 pm ET
- Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
- TV: ESPN
- Radio: WSVV-FM 95.5 (Georgia) / Tide 100.9 FM (Alabama)
- Live Stream: WatchESPN
- College Football Odds: Georgia (-3) / Alabama (+3)
Why Bet on the Georgia Bulldogs?
After losing the SEC Championship 41-24 to Alabama, UGA bounced back with a stunning 34- 11 victory over the Michigan Wolverines. The Dawgs displayed the type of defense that had led to an undefeated regular season. Georgia held the Wolverines to 88 rushing yards and 237 passing yards. On offense, Stetson Bennett played the best game of his career. Bennett completed 21-of-31 for 310 yards and threw 3 touchdown passes. Georgia could do no wrong on either side of the ball.
The Bulldogs must blitz Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young. In the SEC title game, Georgia allowed Young time to go through his reads and deliver pinpoint passes to John Metchie III and Jameson Williams. Blitzing Young forces the 5’ 11” quarterback to throw over taller defensive linemen. Without Metchie III, Young could have trouble getting the ball to his other open receivers. So blitzing is the chance UGA must take.
Why Bet on the Alabama Crimson Tide?
Knowing the Cincinnati Bearcats had one of the best secondaries in college football, Nick Saban and Bama offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien employed a run first strategy. Heading into the game, the Bearcats allowed around 137 rush yards per. The Alabama offense exploited Cincinnati with 301 rushing yards from 47 carries. Bama’s rushing attack slowed down the game, which allows the Crimson Tide to build an insurmountable lead. At the end, Alabama beat the upstart Bearcats 27-6.
Alabama must come up with a way to get wide receiver Jameson Williams loose. We don’t know how O’Brien and Saban plan on doing that because the Tide had a much different strategy against the Bearcats than they did versus UGA in the SEC title game. Without Metchie III, Williams becomes Young’s top target. So getting Jameson the ball will be key to Alabama’s success on offense.
Georgia vs. Alabama Betting Trends
- Georgia is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an against the spread win.
- Bulldogs are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 neutral site games.
- Under is 8-2-2 in the Bulldogs’ last 12 neutral site games.
- Alabama is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
- Crimson Tide is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.
- Over is 4-0-1 in the Crimson Tide’s last 5 National Championship games.
Georgia vs. Alabama Expert Betting Predictions
These two teams know each other very well, which is why oddsmakers have given Georgia the benefit of the doubt. But although UGA looked much better than Alabama in their semifinal victory over Michigan than the Tide looked in their CFP semi win against Cincinnati, let’s not kid ourselves.
O’Brien and Saban had the perfect antidote to the Bearcats’ top-rated secondary. Bama mercilessly pounded the ball with running back Brian Robinson Jr. Alabama might hand the ball off to their running back 10 times or less in this game. What we could see is Katy, Texas freshman quarterback Jalen Milroe in the run-pass option. Milroe not only has a cannon for an arm, but he’s an incredibly gifted runner.
If Georgia’s defensive linemen decide to pull out and put their hands up to knock away the shorter Young’s passes, Saban might send Milroe to the field. The freshman is 6’ 2”, which means he can throw over Georgia’s D-linemen. We should also expect Young to throw plenty of quick slants and rollouts away from UGA’s blitz. The combination of a mobile Bryce Young and RPO Milroe should lead to plenty of Alabama points.
When Georgia has the ball, the Bulldogs will put together decent drives. But although the Dawgs scored 34 against a good Michigan defense, many of Bennett’s top throws went to running back James Cook. Cook won’t have the same success on wheel routes against Alabama’s defense like he did versus Michigan’s. With that being written, Bennett should throw a good game.
It won’t be enough. Alabama has way more weapons on offense than John Metchie III. More importantly, Georgia is what they are on offense. It’s tough to see how Smart and his crew mix things up enough on offense for a Bulldogs’ victory Alabama, especially if they employ Milroe in the RPO, will be unstoppable. Bama wins by 10.
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*All odds stated are subject to change without prior notice.