Jaguars vs. Chiefs 2023 AFC Divisional Round Odds, Preview & Pick

By Hank Blaine • January 17, 2023

The first of the NFL’s four Divisional Round games this weekend is Saturday as AFC South champion Jacksonville visits AFC West champion and Super Bowl 57 betting favorite Kansas City, which is the biggest favorite of the weekend.

Jacksonville visited Kansas City in Week 10 and lost 27-17. Patrick Mahomes threw for 331 yards with touchdown passes to four different receivers, and the Kansas City offense piled up nearly 500 yards. Kadarius Toney, Travis Kelce, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Noah Gray had touchdown catches, and Isiah Pacheco ran for 82 yards as the Chiefs beat the Jaguars for the sixth straight time.

Trevor Lawrence threw for 259 yards and two touchdowns, both to Christian Kirk, who finished with nine catches for 105 yards for the Jaguars. Zay Jones also had eight catches for 68 yards while Travis Etienne ran for 45 yards.

“We have to execute better than we did the first matchup,” Jags Coach Doug Pederson said of a game in which the Jaguars committed three turnovers, forced none and failed to score on four of seven possessions inside Kansas City territory. “They’ve got great players over there, so we just have to execute better.”

Nitrobetting is ready to equip its bettors with the latest news, NFL odds, and special features for the entire duration of the 2022 NFL season. This time, let’s take a closer look at the upcoming AFC Divisional Round showdown between the Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs.

Jaguars vs. Chiefs AFC Divisional Round Game Information

When: Saturday, January 21, 2023, 3:30 PM ET
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
TV: NBC
Radio: 1010 XL AM (Jaguars) // 106.5 The Wolf (Chiefs)
Live Stream: NFL Game Pass
NFL Odds: Jaguars (-2.5) // Chiefs (+2.5)

Why Bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars?

The Jaguars had one of the most unlikely wins in NFL history in the Wild Card Round, rallying from down 27-0 late in the first half this past Saturday to stun the Los Angeles Chargers 31-30. It was the third-biggest comeback win in playoff annals. Lawrence completed 28-of-47 passes for 288 yards, four touchdowns and four interceptions.

He threw four interceptions on his first 16 attempts, becoming just the second quarterback in playoff history to have a four-INT half. He was the third quarterback in the Super Bowl era to throw four interceptions in the first half of a playoff game (Gary Danielson and Craig Morton were the others).

But down 27-0 late in the second quarter, Lawrence finally adjusted to Chargers coach Brandon Staley’s looks and was unstoppable. He went 18-of-23 for 211 yards and three scores after the break. Lawrence engineered the winning drive, highlighted by Travis Etienne’s 25-yard run on a fourth-and-1 play, and put the Jaguars in position for Riley Patterson’s 36-yard field goal on the final play as the Jags won their sixth straight game. Etienne rushed 20 times for 109 yards.

Jacksonville was the first team in playoff history to have a turnover margin of minus-5 or worse and win. The last time a team turned the ball over five times in the first half of a playoff game as Jacksonville did was in the 1999 divisional playoffs — the Miami Dolphins did it against the Jaguars on this same field. The Jaguars won that game 62-7 and sent Dolphins quarterback Dan Marino into retirement.

Why Bet on the Kansas City Chiefs?

As the AFC’s top seed, the Chiefs were off last week. Mahomes led the NFL with 5,250 passing yards and 41 touchdown passes this season to help the Chiefs earn their seventh consecutive AFC West division title and fifth since he became the starting quarterback in 2018. He’s going to win a second MVP Award.

In 11 career postseason starts, he has 3,381 passing yards (307.4 per game) with 33 touchdowns (28 passing, five rushing) against seven interceptions for a 105.7 rating and has led the Chiefs to four consecutive AFC Championship games with two Super Bowl appearances in the past four seasons. During the 2019 season, Mahomes became the youngest quarterback to win Super Bowl MVP honors as Kansas City earned the Super Bowl LIV title.

Chiefs end Chris Jones was named Pro Football Focus’ Defensive Player of the Year. award. Jones was simply tremendous this past season, matching a career-best with 15.5 sacks. With 77 total pressures, Jones tallied 14 more than any other interior pass rusher, and he even had snaps where he kicked out to rush around tackles from a true edge alignment at well north of 300 pounds.

Jacksonville’s last win against the Chiefs was in 2009 and its last win at Arrowhead Stadium was in 2007.

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Betting Trends

Jaguars are 4-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Jaguars are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC.
The total went under in 9 of Jacksonville’s last 12 games played in January.
Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff home games.
Chiefs are 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 vs. AFC.
The total went under in 4 of Kansas City’s last 5 games against Jacksonville.

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Expert Betting Predictions

Chiefs 30, Jaguars 23.

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*All stated odds are subject to change without prior notice.