The Miami Marlins are one of the biggest surprises in the majors and legitimate National League contenders. They look to finish their interleague series in Boston on Thursday on a high note ahead of an even bigger weekend series vs. NL East-leading Atlanta.

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Marlins vs Red Sox Game Information

Mid-year review: 13 games over .500

Raise soon? pic.twitter.com/uma0udEylo

— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) June 29, 2023

• When: Thursday, June 29, 2023, 6:10 PM ET
• Where: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• TV: BSFL, NESN
• Radio: 940 WINZ AM (Marlins) // WEEI-FM 93.7 (Red Sox)
• Live Stream: MLB.tv
• MLB Odds: Marlins (-154) // Red Sox (+130)

READ MORE: Rays vs. Diamondbacks MLB Odds, Preview and Prediction – June 28, 2023

Why bet on the Miami Marlins?

Miami is off to its second-best start to a season through the club’s first 80 games in franchise history, behind the 1997 World Series team (48-32). Nearly 50% of the Marlins’ games this season (39) have been decided by two runs or less – most in the Majors. The Marlins are 27-12 in such contests.

The Red Sox had won 10 straight at Fenway Park vs Miami, Boston’s longest winning streak ever against an NL team the venue and longest against any team since an 11-game streak vs. Baltimore from 7/12/2008-7/25/09. That 10-game run ended Monday in a 10-1 loss. This series vs. Miami is the first of 3 consecutive series for Boston against teams with a record of .500 or better (also 3 games at Toronto and three vs. Texas). A total of 11 of the Red Sox’s last 17 games have been decided by 3 runs or fewer, including 6 one-run games.

The Marlins got a lot better Tuesday when they activated infielder Jazz Chisholm, a 2022 All-Star, and Jean Segura from the injured list. Chisholm landed on the IL in mid-May after suffering turf toe when colliding with the wall while attempting to make a catch. The estimated timeline that was given at that time was four to six weeks and he’s now returning at the long end of that window. Chisholm went 3-for-4 with a double, two runs scored and three RBIs in his return Tuesday. Just a different offense with him in there, although Chisholm has lost his leadoff spot to Luis Arraez, who is flirting with hitting .400 this year. Segura homered in his return on Tuesday but won’t necessarily play every day.

Lefty Jesus Luzardo is scheduled to take the hill for Boston in this one. Luzardo (6-5) did not factor into the decision last Friday, allowing two hits and one walk over seven scoreless innings against the Pirates. He struck out nine. He dominated with 19 swinging strikes on 96 pitches. Unfortunately for Luzardo, closer A.J. Puk couldn’t hold onto the lead in the ninth and squandered his win. Luzardo has a 3.77 ERA, 1.19 ERA and 103:23 K:BB on the year.

Why bet on the Boston Red Sox?

Only a few Red Sox have ever faced Luzardo: Justin Turner has the most (while with the Dodgers), going 1-for-7 with two strikeouts. Adam Duvall is 0-for-3 with a walk and RBI.

Boston actually made a trade Tuesday, landing reliever Andres Nunez from the Royals for cash considerations. The 27-year-old old hurler will begin his Red Sox tenure at Triple-A Worcester. Nunez registered a 6.66 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and 20/14 K/BB 24 1/3 innings at Triple-A Omaha for the Royals. With outfielder and leadoff hitter Alex Verdugo activated from the bereavement list on Tuesday, the Sox sent Bobby Dalbec back down to Triple-A. He has been raking down there but there’s simply no room for him in the Show right now.

It’s young Bryan Bello (5-4) on the mound for Boston. Bello introduced a cut fastball during Friday’s 3-1 win over the White Sox: “I started working on the pitch this week,” Bello said about the pitch he threw nine times. Bello said he hadn’t been able to control his slider the way he wanted to, so he tried out the cutter for the first time in a game situation. He pitched one-run ball for 6.2 innings in the win over Chicago. Working on four days’ rest for just the second time this season, Bello had a little less velocity than usual but still pitched well. He hasn’t allowed a homer in his past five starts spanning 32.2 innings and has thrown at least six innings in four straight.

Since allowing five runs over 2.2. innings in his first start of the season, Bello has been Boston’s most consistent starter, posting a 2.70 ERA over 11 outings while not allowing more than three earned runs. Prior to Bello, the most recent Red Sox to post a sub-2.50 ERA in a 10-start span before turning 25 years old were Jon Lester, Aaron Sele, Roger Clemens, and Dennis Eckersley.

Bello has never faced the Marlins but one Miami batter has seen him: MLB batting leader Luis Arraez went 1-for-2 off Bello with a walk while with the Twins.

Marlins vs Red Sox Betting Trends

• Marlins are 16-41 in the last 57 vs. American League East.
• Marlins are 7-3 in its last 10 interleague road games.
• The total went under in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games.
• Red Sox are 4-1 in the last 5 home games.
• Red Sox are 80-38 in its last 118 vs. National League East.
• The total went under in 4 of Boston’s last 6 games.

Marlins vs Red Sox Betting Prediction

Red Sox 4, Marlins 3.

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