Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week (August 22nd, 2022)

By Hank Blaine • August 22, 2022

We’re midway through August, as we get closer to the postseason. There are many teams that have their seasons locked in, while others are still struggling to keep it alive. We take a look at the top games that could define the future for these teams.

Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week (August 22nd, 2022)

Entering Monday, the Atlanta Braves have won 11 of their last 13 games and that certainly helped the team's case in the latest USA TODAY Sports MLB power rankings. https://t.co/juB2sVyzY9
— USA TODAY Sports (@usatodaysports) August 22, 2022

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

When: Monday, August 22, 2022, 10:10 PM ET
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
TV: Bally Sports Wisconsin, SportsNet LA
Radio: WTMJ 620 (Brewers) // Dodgers Radio AM570 (Dodgers)
Live Stream: MLB.tv
MLB Betting Odds: Brewers (+224) // Dodgers (-263)

The series of the early week around Major League Baseball is a potential playoff preview as the Milwaukee Brewers visit the Los Angeles Dodgers. LA is a lock to win the NL West and probably finish with the best record in MLB, while Milwaukee is 1.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League. These teams just played last week and split four games in Beer Town.

Tuesday’s pitching matchup has Cy Young considerations as it features 2021 winner Corbin Burnes of the Brewers and Tony Gonsolin of the Dodgers.

Burnes (9-5) allowed three earned runs on six hits and two walks while striking out six across 5.2 innings to earn the win last Thursday against the Dodgers. Burnes held the potent Los Angeles lineup scoreless through five innings. However, he allowed the first three batters he faced in the sixth inning to reach base and ultimately surrendered a two-out, two-RBI triple to Gavin Lux to end his outing.

“It was definitely good to get to him, get him out of the game in the sixth, kind of ruin his day a little bit and put a couple runs on him,” Dodgers catcher Will Smith said. “That was a big swing by Gavin to get us back in the ballgame. He pitched well today, but we still found a way to get a couple runs late.”

Though Burnes has failed to work at least six innings in three of his last six starts, he’s still maintained a 3.60 ERA with a 43:11 K:BB in that span. For the season, Burnes has a 2.48 ERA with 187 strikeouts across 148.2 frames.

Since June 9, none of the 63 pitchers who have induced at least 75 grounders have allowed a lower batting average on ground balls than Burnes’ .118. It’s not even close — Joe Musgrove ranks second at .149. His 6.8 percent full-season walk rate is among the lowest for any pitcher with a first-pitch strike rate of 60.0 percent or lower — and his 56.1 percent rate is well below that 60.0 percent threshold.

Gonsolin (15-1) earned the win over Milwaukee last Wednesday, allowing two hits and one walk while striking out eight batters over seven scoreless innings. Gonsolin held the Brewers without a hit until the fifth inning, and he didn’t allow any baserunners to reach second base over his seven innings of work. The All-Star tied a season high with eight strikeouts and picked up his fourth straight victory.

Gonsolin is nearing his high mark as a professional with 123.1 innings on the campaign, but he’s showing no signs of slowing down — in fact, he’s been dominant over his past three starts, allowing just one run over 18.2 innings. The right-hander is tied for the MLB lead with 15 victories, has held opponents to a league-low .169 batting average and ranks second in the National League with a 2.12 ERA.

“I’m just proud of Tony. His first couple and two and a half years have been mired with injuries. Winning games is one thing. It’s still the ultimate goal and being able to post is more important. He’s posting and he’s winning. He’s done a great job of saving our pen when we need it most,” Manager Dave Roberts said.

MLB Betting Pick: Dodgers

New York Mets vs. New York Yankees

When: Tuesday, August 23, 2022, 7:05 PM ET
Where: Yankees Stadium, New York City, NY
TV: WPIX, YES, MLBN (out-of-market only)
Radio: WCBS 880 (Mets) // WFAN 660 (Yankees)
Live Stream: MLB.tv
MLB Betting Odds: Astros (-127) // White Sox (+110)

If the Subway Series rivals meet again after Tuesday, it will be in the World Series – a distinct possibility as both clubs should win their East Division. The Mets won the first two games of the Subway Series at home from July 26-27.

It’s two-time NL Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom on the mound Tuesday. DeGrom (2-1) took the loss against Atlanta last Thursday, allowing three runs on five hits and no walks while striking out nine batters over 6.2 innings. DeGrom was his usual dominant self in the outing — he racked up 20 swinging strikes and fanned nine batters while giving up just five hits. However, the right-hander surrendered a pair of runs in the third inning, and an infield single by the final batter he faced in the contest (Vaughn Grissom) came back to bite him when Michael Harris II followed with a run-scoring double off reliever Seth Lugo. DeGrom ended up being charged with a season-high three runs.

The Yankees have just five wins this month and are coming off a .500 July. They held a 15.5-game lead in the American League East through July 8, but the Yankees’ advantage over Toronto and Tampa Bay is now down to eight games. The Yankees still lead MLB in home runs, but are in the midst of a serious power outage. Entering Sunday, they had hit just four home runs over their last seven games, three of them coming in their one win. For a team that often leans on the long ball, they have struggled to score runs without it. Not having Giancarlo Stanton (Achilles tendinitis) for this series won’t help in that regard.

It’s trade acquisition Frankie Montas for the Yankees on the mound. Montas (4-10) took the loss last Thursday against Toronto, allowing six runs on eight hits and a walk while striking out two in six innings. The second inning was a nightmare for Montas as the Blue Jays scored five times, capped off by a two-out, three-run homer by Vladimir Guerrero. Following that, he settled down, allowing just one run and inducing seven ground-ball outs over the final four frames. Two of his three starts as a Yankee have been subpar and he has a 9.00 ERA, 1.71 WHIP and 8:6 K:BB in 14 innings since being acquired from the A’s.

MLB Betting Pick: Mets

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*All odds stated are subject to change without prior notice.