Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week (July 4th, 2022)

By Hank Blaine • July 4, 2022

This week’s MLB betting picks have the Nationals taking on the Phillies on Tuesday night, while the Angels head east to take on the Phillies. Who will have the best chances to take the win this week? Check back for MLB odds.

Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week (July 4th, 2022)

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Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies

When: Tuesday, July 5, 2022, 7:05 PM ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
TV: MASN, MLBN (out-of-market only), NBCSP
Radio: WJFK 106.7 The Fan (Nationals) / 94 WIP (Phillies)
MLB Betting Odds: TBA

The Washington Nationals are not a good team so you should be fading them most nights as it is. However, had young superstar Juan Soto suffered a major injury as it appeared he might have over the weekend, well, you should have just faded Washington the rest of the way.

Soto isn’t seriously hurt but is going to miss at least a few games with an injured calf. He left Sunday’s loss to Miami after being involved in a fourth-inning rundown. The All-Star outfielder flexed and pointed to his left leg after making a throw in right field in the third inning. An MRI showed that “everything was fine” with the calf.

Given the Nationals’ place in the standings – last by far in the NL East — they will obviously proceed with caution with their franchise player. It’s been a down season by Soto’s standards. He’s hitting just .226, albeit with a .382 on-base percentage and 15 more walks than strikeouts. He does lead Major League Baseball with 67 walks. Soto hit .313 with a .465 OBP last season when he was the NL MVP runner-up to Bryce Harper.

Last week, the Nationals reportedly offered Soto a 13-year, $425 million extension and he actually turned it down. That was $75 million more than the team originally offered him. Soto has two years of arbitration eligibility before becoming an unrestricted free agent in 2025. He’s playing on a one-year, $17.1 million contract for 2022.

Nice break for the Phillies, though, as they open a three-game home series vs. Washington on Tuesday and certainly will be solidly favored in each game. Paolo Espino (0-1, 2.80 ERA) is on the mound for the Nats in the opener. Since joining the starting rotation on June 12, Espino is 0-1 with a 3.93 ERA in six starts. He posted a 2.03 ERA in 20 games out of Washington’s bullpen prior to that.

Cristopher Sanchez was scratched from his scheduled start at Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Sunday and is likely to start for the Phillies. The Phillies have an unexpected opening in their rotation after Ranger Suarez (back) was placed on the 15-day IL on Sunday. The 25-year-old southpaw Sanchez has posted a 4.60 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 15/6 K/BB ratio over 15 2/3 innings in eight appearances (one start) for the Phillies this season.

MLB Betting Pick: Phillies

Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins

When: Wednesday, July 6th, 2022. 6:40pm ET.
Where: LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL
TV: Bally Sports West, Bally Sports Florida
Radio: KLAA 830 (Angels) / FOX Sports 940AM (Marlins)
MLB Betting Odds: TBA

Always an event when Shohei Ohtani is on the mound the Halos and the reigning AL MVP is back there Wednesday against a Marlins team missing its best offensive player in the injured Jazz Chisholm.

Ohtani (7-4, 2.68 ERA) struck out 11 across 5 2/3 innings of shutout ball in last Wednesday’s 4-1 win over the White Sox. He scattered five hits and walked one while throwing 108 pitches (74 strikes). Ohtani is up to four starts of double-digit strikeouts in 13 starts this season.

Ohtani of the Angels is just the fourth pitcher in the past 10 years with 30+ strikeouts and no runs allowed in a three-start span. And he also hit four homers during that time. Those are Babe Ruthian numbers.

Through May 8, Ohtani was hitting just .235/.302/.383 with four homers. On the mound, he was better, going 3-2 with 3.08 ERA and sparkling peripherals. Since that May 8 nadir, Ohtani has hit .279/.370/.581 with 14 homers at the dish while going 4-2 with a 2.45 ERA on the mound. At the plate, Ohtani has cut his strikeout rate this season and has produced a slightly higher BABIP than in 2021. However, his homer percentage has slipped by nearly 2% and his walk rate is down by more than 4%.

Chisholm is out with a back strain. The 24-year-old is slashing .254/.325/.535 with 14 homers, 45 RBI and 12 steals on the season. Outfielder/DH Jorge Soler has joined him there with bilateral pelvis inflammation. I don’t know what that is but it doesn’t sound fun. Soler sits third among qualified hitters on the Marlins with a .727 on-base plus slugging percentage. Additionally, the World Series MVP ranks third on the team in runs batted in and second in runs scored.

Miami is scheduled to start Trevor Rogers (4-6, 5.56) on the mound. Rogers gave up a run over five innings Friday as the Marlins beat the Nationals. Rogers scattered two hits, walked three, and struck out four. Another day, another lackluster start for the 24-year-old left-hander. While he did give up just one run, it was his 13th start striking out five or less batters. He’s now tossed six innings just once through 15 starts.

MLB Betting Pick: Angels

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*All odds stated are subject to change without prior notice.