Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week – June 17th, 2024

By Jeff Stinger • June 17, 2024

The Los Angeles Dodgers are holding their breath on the status of stellar rookie right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto as he had to leave Saturday’s start vs. Kansas City in the second inning due to right triceps soreness. That can lead to Tommy John surgery, although we aren’t there yet, but his velocity was down against the Royals. He will surely land on the IL at a minimum as a precaution. Here’s a look at two intriguing matchups early this week.

Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week (June 17th, 2024)

MLB power rankings: Red-hot Orioles have showdown vs. No. 1 Yankees … and Gerrit Cole? https://t.co/zwQIvNjTou
— USA TODAY Sports (@usatodaysports) June 17, 2024

San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies

When: Monday, June 17th, 2024, 6:40 PM ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
TV: SDPA, NBCSP
Radio: 97.3 FM The Fan (White Sox) // KWIP 94.1 FM (Phillies)
Live Stream: MLB.tv
MLB Betting Odds: Padres (+155) // Phillies (-182)

Could be an NL playoff preview – of course, the Phillies beat the Padres in five games in the 2022 NLCS. Philadelphia’s lineup will get much better on Monday with the return from the injured list of All-Star shortstop Trea Turner who will not even go out on a minor-league rehab stint. The 30-year-old has not appeared for the Phillies since May 3 after suffering a significant hamstring strain. At the time, he was expected to miss at least six weeks. That timeline proved to be accurate as last Friday represented the six-week mark.

Prior to suffering the injury, Turner was off to a tremendous start to the season. He had batted .343/.392/.460 (144 OPS+) with two home runs and 10 stolen bases (on 11 tries) in 33 games. His contributions were estimated to be worth 1.6 Wins Above Replacement, per Baseball Reference’s calculations. Edmundo Sosa has played really well at shortstop with Turner out but will move to a super-utility role and perhaps even play in the outfield some.

Two-time MVP Bryce Harper leads all MLB players this season in OPS with runners in scoring position (1.372), OPS with RISP & 2 out (1.877) and OPS with the bases loaded (3.300). In five plate appearances with the bases loaded, he has hit 2 grand slams, a double, and has 11 RBI this year. Since April 16, Harper leads the NL in fWAR at 2.6.

The Phillies are playing their first home game since June 5 and really have been traveling a lot of late. Since May 23, they have flown from Philly to Denver, Denver to San Francisco, San Francisco to Philly, Philly to London, London to Boston and Boston to Baltimore. In total, they have crossed 18 time zones and flown approximately 12,213 miles in the last 24 days.

It’s lefty Cristopher Sanchez (3-3) on the hill Monday. Sanchez did not factor into the decision in last Wednesday’s 8-6 loss to the Red Sox, allowing four runs on seven hits and two walks with two strikeouts over four innings. Sanchez opened with three scoreless frames before allowing a run on a sacrifice fly in the fourth, then he surrendered three straight hits to open the fifth and was pulled at just 67 pitches. All three inherited runners came around to score, marking the first time since April 29 that Sanchez yielded four runs or more in a start. On the season, Sanchez now owns a 3.07 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 61:23 K:BB through 13 starts. He is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA career in five innings vs. the Padres.

Padres rookie shortstop Jackson Merrill over the weekend became the 1st player younger than 22 to have 4 home runs in any 3-game span since now-teammate Fernando Tatis Jr. in 2020. Merrill’s 66 hits lead all rookies in 2024, and he leads National League rookies in RBI (28), total bases (97), 3-hit games (5), and games played (70).

It’s righty Randy Vasquez (1-3) on the mound Monday. Vasquez allowed one run on seven hits and two walks while striking out five over five innings in a no-decision versus the Athletics last Tuesday. Vasquez’s first pitch of the game was deposited over the center-field wall by Abraham Toro. Beyond that, Vasquez was able to settle in for a fine start. He has allowed seven runs over 16.2 innings across his three outings in June.

For the season, he has a 4.93 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 26:7 K:BB over eight starts, but it appears he’s gotten more comfortable the longer he stays in the majors. Vasquez’s season-long metrics, including a high BABIP of .344 and a modest 6.1 K/9, are not good.

MLB Betting Pick: Phillies

New York Yankees vs. New York Mets

When: Wednesday, June 19th, 2024, 7:05 PM ET
Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
TV: MASN, AmazonPV, MLBN
Radio: 98 Rock FM (Orioles) // WFAN 101.9 FM (Yankees)
Live Stream: MLB.tv
MLB Betting Odds: TBA

These are the top two teams in the AL East Division and likely will be battling for that title all season. It’s their first meeting of 2024 in New York as the Orioles won three of four at Camden Yards against the Yankees from April 29-May 2.

While the series opens on Tuesday, we are going to look at Wednesday because Yankees ace and 2023 Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole could make his season debut off an elbow issue. Tuesday’s starter will be Nestor Cortes, and Thursday will be Luis Gil. Wednesday has a TBD by it, and it seems possible — if not probable — that it’ll be Cole returning to the rotation.

Cole pitched in likely his final minor-league rehab start on Friday and allowed just two hits and an unearned run with 10 strikeouts over 4⅓ sharp innings for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders at Rochester, a Washington Nationals affiliate. Cole threw 46 of his 70 pitches for strikes and did not issue a walk. The 70 pitches that Cole threw was a pre-determined number, something that everyone involved in the decision agreed upon before the game. His fastball on the night topped-out at 97.8 mph.

“I felt really strong at the end,” said Cole. “There are probably a few more in the tank, which is a good thing. We’re making steady progression at the same time.”

The six-time All-Star has struck out 19 and walked none over 12⅓ innings in three minor league rehabilitation starts (two with Double-A Somerset).

“I’ve just got to get the pitch count up,” Cole said. “I mean, the team’s playing well. It’s not a situation where you come in and, like, disrupt the distribution of innings with your bullpen when everything’s flowing so well.”

AL East-lading New York has 20 come-from-behind wins this season, tied with Baltimore and Washington for the most in the Majors. The Yankees have scored an MLB-best 59 runs in the first inning this year and 26-3 when doing so.

Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson ranks second in MLB with 22 home runs, trailing only the Yankees’ Aaron Judge (25 as of Sunday), Henderson owns a career-best 24-game on-base streak since May 22, the longest active streak in MLB and on-base streak by an O’s batter since Ryan Mountcastle had a 28-game streak from July 21 to August 23, 2023. Henderson also has a season-high 10-game hitting streak since June 6; his career long is an 11-gamer from August 14-26, 2023.

Rookie lefty Cade Povich (0-1, 4.76 ERA) is scheduled to pitch Wednesday. Povich came away with a no-decision in last Wednesday’s 4-2 win over Atlanta, allowing five hits over six scoreless innings. He struck out six without walking a batter. He was brilliant in his second big-league start, firing 63 of 89 pitches for strikes and leaving the mound in line for his first career win before Matt Olson tied the game at 2-2 in the eighth inning. This might be Povich’s last start in the majors before being sent down if injured starter Dean Kremer is ready to be activated at some point next week.

“No walks for Cade Povich. That’s something we talked a lot [about] with him at the end of spring,” Manager Brandon Hyde said of the success of his last outing. “Command and how important commanding your fastball [is] here and being able to land off-speed in fastball counts for strikes, and he did all of that tonight. The curveball was really good; the cutter was good; he had life to his fastball. Just threw a ton of strikes and did an unbelievable job.”

MLB Betting Pick: Yankees

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Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week – June 17th, 2024