Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week – June 24th, 2024

By Hank Blaine • June 24, 2024

The last thing the offensively challenged Toronto Blue Jays needed was to lose another hitter but rookie shortstop Orelvis Martinez, the team’s No. 2 overall prospect, received an 80-game suspension over the weekend for a positive PED test. Martinez was in position to play a fair amount with Jays starting shortstop Bo Bichette on the injured list. Here’s a look at two intriguing matchups early this week.

Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week (June 24th, 2024)

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers

When: Tuesday, June 25th, 2024, 6:40 PM ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
TV: NBCSP, BSDET
Radio: KWIP 94.1 FM (Phillies) // WXYT-FM 97.1 (Tigers)
Live Stream: MLB.tv
MLB Betting Odds: TBA

It’s a matchup of potential Cy Young Award winners in Philly’s Ranger Suarez and Detroit’s Tarik Skubal. Suarez is one of the biggest surprises in baseball at 10-1 with a 1.75 ERA – he’s on pace to go 21-2. Suarez came away with a no-decision in last Wednesday’s 5-2 loss to the Padres, allowing one run on six hits over six innings. He struck out four without walking a batter.

Prior to Wednesday, Suárez had made 229 appearances across the Minors and Majors (including the postseason) since 2015 and his family had never seen him in person, only watched on TV (when available) from their home in Pie de Cuesta, Venezuela. But they were there for Wednesday’s start. As Suarez walked off the field after the sixth, the always Stoic southpaw waved to his family behind home plate.

The lefty was sharp as he delivered his 10th quality start of the season, firing 67 of 94 pitches for strikes, but he was locked in a pitchers’ duel with Matt Waldron until the Phillies’ bullpen and defense faltered after Suarez left the mound. The 28-year-old has a 0.89 WHIP and 95:19 K:BB through 92.1 innings.

His 1.75 ERA is the lowest mark by any Phillies’ pitcher through his first 15 starts of a season since 1968 (Woodie Fryman, 1.61). He’s just the fifth pitcher in AL/NL history to begin a season with a 1.75 ERA or better, 95 strikeouts and fewer than 20 walks through 15 starts. The others are Jacob deGrom (2021), Clayton Kershaw (2016) and Hall of Famers Greg Maddux (1995) and Jim Bunning (1966). The only other Phillies’ pitcher with even a sub-2.00 ERA, 90-plus strikeouts and fewer than 70 hits allowed over any 15-game span within a season is Hall of Famer Grover Alexander… in 1915.

Suarez is currently slated to hit free agency following the 2025 season, but while the Phillies signed fellow lefty Cristopher Sanchez to an extension recently, they are not deep in talks with Suarez and appear likely to wait until after the 2024 campaign has concluded. For his part, GM Dave Dombrowski noted that the club “love[s]” Suarez and that they “hope that he’s part of the organization for a long time,” but also declined to discuss the state of negotiations with him.

Detroit’s Skubal (8-3) took the loss last Wednesday against Atlanta, allowing five runs (four earned) on seven hits and two walks over four innings. He struck out seven. Most of the damage against Skubal came via the long ball — he gave up a two-run homer to Sean Murphy in the third inning, before Ramon Laureano tacked on a solo shot in the fourth. It was the shortest and least effective of Skubal’s 15 starts this year. He ended up contributing to his early exit with two walks and two hit-batsmen, very uncharacteristic lapses in control and command.

The 27-year-old Skubal has now lost back-to-back starts for the first time this season — he’s given up eight earned runs over 10.1 innings in that span. The southpaw still sports a solid 2.50 ERA on the year, with a 0.97 WHIP and 105:18 K:BB across 90 innings.

MLB Betting Pick: Tigers

New York Yankees vs. New York Mets

When: Wednesday, June 26th, 2024, 7:10 PM ET
Where: Citi Field, Queens, NY
TV: AmazonPV, SNY, MLBN
Radio: WFAN 101.9 FM (Yankees) // WCBS 880 AM (Mets)
Live Stream: MLB.tv
MLB Betting Odds: TBA

Finale of a two-game Subway Series on Wednesday from Citi Field. They will play another series later on at Yankee Stadium. New Mets manager Carlos Mendoza, 44, knows the Yankees organization as well as just about anybody in the game.

After being signed by the Giants as a teenager out of Venezuela, Mendoza latched on with the Yankees’ High-A affiliate in 2006 and played in every level of their minor league system aside from Single-A. He did manage there with the Single-A Charleston River Dogs in 2011. Ultimately, he became the Yankees’ infield coach in 2017 and spent the last four seasons under Aaron Boone as the Yankees’ bench coach.

The Mets are not likely to have All-Star closer Edwin Diaz for the series. He was ejected from Sunday’s game before throwing a pitch due to sticky stuff and is facing an automatic 10-game suspension pending any appeal. As Díaz took the field to warm up before facing the Cubs in the bottom of the ninth Sunday, second-base umpire Brian Walsh performed the routine inspection of the pitcher’s hand and glove. Walsh saw something and called in the other umpires. Díaz this season has pitched to a 4.70 ERA in 23 appearances, with 33 strikeouts and seven walks in 23 innings.

The Yankees are missing two regulars who recently landed on the IL in first baseman Anthony Rizzo and DH Giancarlo Stanton, who left Saturday’s win over Atlanta with a hamstring injury. Stanton is on the IL for the eighth time in the past six seasons and expects to miss a month. Rizzo will be out even longer with a fractured arm. Boone said Aaron Judge likely will see more designated hitter days while Stanton is sidelined, and Trent Grisham will be the primary outfield replacement.

It’s AL Rookie of the Year favorite Luis Gil on the mound Wednesday. Gil (9-2, 2.77 ERA) ) was hit with the loss against the Orioles last Thursday, allowing seven runs on eight hits and two walks while striking out one over 1.1 innings. Gil struggled out of the gate, surrendering a leadoff double to open the contest before eventually allowing one run in the first. Things would get much worse for the right-hander in the following frame, as he failed to retire nine of the next 10 batters he faced, leading to his shortest outing of the campaign. Gil gave up a season-high seven runs and failed to make it through six innings for the third consecutive start. It also marked his first loss since April 15 against Toronto.

The Mets counter with lefty and trade candidate Sean Manaea (4-3, 4.16 ERA). Manaea pitched 5.2 innings in a no-decision against Texas last Wednesday, allowing three runs on two hits and three walks while striking out six batters. Manaea gave up just one run through five but ran into trouble in the sixth. In that frame, a two-out Josh Smith double narrowed New York’s lead to one and resulted in Manaea getting the hook. Reliever Sean Reid-Foley followed by allowing his inherited runner to score, taking Manaea out of contention for a victory. It was still a solid outing overall for Manaea, although he’s now failed to complete six innings in each of his past five starts.

MLB Betting Pick: Yankees

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Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week – June 24th, 2024