Patriots vs. Dolphins 2022 NFL Week 1 Odds, Preview & Pick

By Jeff Stinger

During the Tom Brady era in New England, the Patriots had their way with the Miami Dolphins time and again. But ever since Brady left for Tampa Bay, the Dolphins have gotten the better of the Patriots of late. Will that trend continue for Miami on opening week, or will Bill Belichick and the boys from Foxborough pull off a road upset?

Nitrobetting is ready to equip its bettors with the latest news, NFL odds, and special features for the entire duration of the 2022 NFL season. This time, let’s take a closer look at the upcoming Week 1 divisional showdown between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins.

Patriots vs. Dolphins Game Information

  • When: Sunday, September 11, 2022, 1:00 PM ET
  • Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
  • TV: CBS
  • Radio: 98.5 The Sports Hub (Patriots) // 560 Sports WQAM (Dolphins)
  • Live Stream: NFL Game Pass
  • NFL Odds: Patriots (+3.5) // Dolphins (-3.5)

READ MORE: Colts vs. Texans 2022 NFL Week 1 Odds, Preview & Pick

Why Bet on the New England Patriots?

After a brief one-year absence away from the postseason, the New England Patriots found themselves back in the title picture after finishing with a 10-7 record and a Wild Card berth in the 2021 NFL season. The Patriots did make a nice jump back to relevancy but were thoroughly outmatched in their first-round playoff loss to another division rival, the Buffalo Bills.

Quarterback Mac Jones earned his first Pro Bowl nod last season after throwing for over 3,800 passing yards and 22 passing touchdowns to just 13 interceptions. Jones’s success under center was aided by New England’s strong running game, which ranked eighth in the league averaging 126.5 rushing yards per game.

That Pats’ defense was also back in full force, ranking second the previous season in points allowed (17.8 PAPG) and third in yards surrendered per contest (310.8 YAPG). The departures of elite secondary defenders J.C. Jackson and Stephon Gilmore are causes for concern, but we know better than to doubt the defensive prowess that a Bill Belichick defense has to offer regardless of the pieces on that D.

Why Bet on the Miami Dolphins?

Few teams have high expectations in 2022 as the Miami Dolphins, who broke bank in the offseason by making splashy moves. After hiring new head coach and former 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, Miami went all-in and paid a handsome price to acquire speedy Kansas City wide receiver and six-time Pro Bowl selection, Tyreek Hill.

As intriguing as all the new shiny toys the Dolphins have at their disposal, though, all would be for naught if quarterback Tua Tagovailoa doesn’t take the next big leap in the pros similar to the same level of success that Jones is seeing in New England. Tagovailoa, a former play-caller out of Alabama like Jones as well, had a passer rating of 90.1 but only threw for 16 TDs whilst getting picked off 10 times last season.

Then again, the Dolphins have won three straight meetings against the Patriots and with two of those victories on their own home turf. If Miami’s middle-of-the-road defense contains New England’s still rather suspect passing game, the former could very well find themselves gloating over their heated division rivals once more.

Patriots vs. Dolphins Betting Trends

  • The Patriots went 6-2 at home the previous regular season (5-3 ATS).
  • The Pats are 2-5 in their last seven games as underdogs (3-6 ATS).
  • The totals went under in four of New England’s last five road games.
  • The Dolphins went 6-3 at home last season (5-4 ATS), with all six of those home wins coming in succession to close out their campaign.
  • The Fins are 7-3 in their last 10 contests against their AFC East rivals (6-3-1 ATS).
  • The totals went over in three of the last four games played in Miami Gardens.

Patriots vs. Dolphins Expert Betting Predictions

The trendy pick here would be to side with the revamped Dolphins with an upgrade offensive roster from top to bottom. On the other hand, New England’s defensive is still no slouch, which could present problems for Miami’s game plan. In turn, call this a toss-up with the slight edge in favor of the visiting squad despite what the odds would currently suggest.

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*All stated odds are subject to change without prior notice.