Defending National League Champion Philadelphia heads to Phoenix for Game 3 versus the Arizona Diamondbacks the slight -136 money line chalk. Philly has a 2 games to 0 lead. But in Game 3, the Phillies send the third starter in their rotation to the mound. Will Ranger Suarez lock down the AZ lineup the way Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola did? Or will Suarez help the Phillies cut the series lead from 2 games to 1? Keep reading for NLCS baseball odds, analysis, and a free pick for Phillies at Diamondbacks Game 3.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks 2023 MLB NLCS Game 3 Information

You can Bank on the @Phillies at home in the #Postseason.

They own the best record all-time at a home venue (min. 20 games)

h/t @SlangsOnSports pic.twitter.com/zHMq2vnZ2e

— MLB (@MLB) October 18, 2023

• When: Thursday, October 19, 2023, 5:07 PM ET
• Where: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
• TV: TBS
• Radio: WIP 94.1 FM (Phillies) // KMVP Arizona Sports 98.7 (Diamondbacks)
• Live Stream: MLB.tv
• MLB Odds: Phillies (+119) // Diamondbacks (-144)

Why bet on the Philadelphia Phillies?

The Phillies didn’t just beat the Arizona D’Backs in Game 2. Philadelphia showed why they’re one of the favorites to win the World Series with a dynamite 10-0 victory.

Aaron Nola threw a gem. Nola, the Phillies second starter in their rotation, tossed 6 innings, yielded 3 hits and 0 runs, and struck out 7.

Philadelphia’s lineup belted 2 home runs, a couple of dingers came off of Kyle Schwarber’s bat and the other was from Trea Turner, and had 11 hits from 32 at-bats. Catcher J.T. Realmuto knocked in 3 runs after going 2-of-4.

Why bet on the Arizona Diamondbacks?

After Arizona got down early, the D’Backs appeared to decide to throw away Game 2 and prepare for Game 3.

Arizona isn’t as good as Philadelphia based on lineup and rotation. The D’Backs can’t afford to blow out their bullpens’ arms in meaningless games. So once the D’Backs fell behind by 4 runs, they played to get out of the contest.

On Thursday night, a different Arizona D’Backs squad should step onto the Chase Field diamond. Arizona knows it’s do or die time. The Diamondbacks are plenty good enough to get to Ranger Suarez. So we should expect the Arizona team that dominated the Dodgers to show up instead of the one that lost 10-0.

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Betting Trends

• Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in the last 8 games.
• Phillies are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home.
• The total went over in 12 of Philadelphia’s last 18 games against Arizona.
• Arizona is 5-1 SU in the last 6 games.
• Diamondbacks are 1-5 SU in its last 6 games against Philadelphia.
• The total went over in 12 of Arizona’s last 17 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia.

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks 2023 MLB NLCS Game 3 Betting Prediction

The Phillies could push the D’Backs to the brink. However, the smart play is on Arizona to cut the series lead to a game.

For starters, few teams continue offensive outbursts after such a dominating performance at the plate. During the regular season it’s difficult to come right back and hit the ball with the same enthusiasm after dropping 10 runs onto an opponent.

This is the playoffs where bouncing happens more often than in the regular season. The Phillies should bounce at the plate and score way fewer runs.

Second, Arizona is at home where their bats should find the sweet spot on Ranger Suarez’s pitches. The D’Backs, like most team, score more runs at their plate than they do on the road.

Also, Brandon Pfaadt, AZ’s starter, could be more effective than Suarez. Pfaadt struggled in his first postseason start versus Milwaukee. But he bounced back against the Dodgers, yielding 2 hits in 4.1 innings and striking out 2.

Philadelphia is playing games. They have yet to announce that Suarez will start even though that’s the logical conclusion. For now, Arizona is the play but if the Phillies decide to sit Suarez and rolls the dice with Wheeler off three days rest or goes with Christopher Sanchez, we may have to change our bet. So bet the game once we know for sure who’s taking the mound for the Phillies.

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