One of the most important games in College Football Week 12 happens on Saturday afternoon when the Cincinnati Bearcats welcome the SMU Mustangs. When it comes to the College Football Playoff, Cincinnati remains on the outside, ranked fifth. Will the Bearcats show they deserve a shot to play for the National Championship? Or will the Mustangs end Cincinnati’s dream of a title? Keep reading for NitroBetting odds, analysis, and a free pick for Cincinnati versus SMU.
SMU vs. Cincinnati Game Information
- When: Saturday, Nov. 20 at 3:30 pm ET
- Where: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
- TV: ESPN
- Radio: The Ticket 1310 AM (SMU) / 700 AM WLW (Cincinnati)
- Live Stream: WatchESPN
- College Football Odds: SMU Mustangs (-2.5) / Cincinnati Bearcats (+2.5)
Why Bet on the SMU Mustangs?
Southern Methodist fields one of the top offenses in the nation. The Mustangs rank sixth in total yards per at 499.9. SMU ranks eighth in passing yards with 329 each game. The 8-2 Mustangs rush for 170.9 each contest. The yards add up to the sixth-ranked scoring offense in college football. Southern Methodist goes for 41.6 each game. The key for SMU’s offense is quarterback Tanner Mordecai. The 6’ 2” player from Waco, Texas, has thrown for 37 TDs and 3,264 yards.
While the offense rocks, SMU’s defense is decent but not great. The Mustangs allow 405.7 yards per game. Opponents average close to 280 passing yards and around 126 rushing yards each contest. SMU allows just 26 points per, though, which means the bend but don’t break philosophy has worked.
Why Bet on the Cincinnati Bearcats?
Led by quarterback Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati fields a take no prisoners offense. The Bearcats average 39.2 points per from 418.3 total yards. Luke Fickell’s bunch runs a balanced attack. Desmond Ridder averages 244 passing yards per while Cincinnati rushes for 173.6 each game.
One of the reasons the Bearcats rank fifth on the College Football Playoff rankings is because the defense is one of the best in the country. The Bearcats rank fifth in passing yards allowed. Opponents average 153.3 yards per game through the air.
Opposing offenses rush for over 151 each game. The rushing yards doesn’t translate into points because Cincinnati allows just 16.2 per, ranking sixth in the nation. The best part of Cincy’s D? The Bearcats have forced 16 takeaways this season, which ranks third. The turnover to takeaway ratio is 9-to-16.
SMU vs. Cincinnati Betting Trends
- Mustangs are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 on the road.
- SMU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road dog.
- Over is 5-2 in SMU’s last 7 games as an underdog.
- Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games.
- Cincinnati is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
- Under is 19-9 in Cincinnati’s last 28 games on field turf.
SMU vs. Cincinnati Expert Betting Predictions
Cincinnati hasn’t covered in four straight. One of the problems appears to be a lack of competition. Navy, Tulane, Tulsa, and UCF aren’t close to Cincinnati’s level. At least SMU has an offense that can hang with the Bearcats. The key in this game is for the Mustangs to get their rushing attack going because Cincinnati is terrific at controlling quarterbacks.
Tanner Mordecai is a talented signal-caller. But he’s thrown at least one pick in Southern Methodist’s last 3 games. Throwing picks against Houston, Memphis, and UCF doesn’t inspire heading into this matchup.
Cincinnati’s D is an opportunistic bunch. As well as Mordecai has played, this is a bad matchup for he and SMU. The Bearcats win and they do so by braking the ATS losing streak.
NCAAF Week 12 Pick: Cincinnati Bearcats
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*All odds stated are subject to change without prior notice.