Betting Stats On The Top Five Super Bowl LVI AFC Favorites
The American Football Conference boasts the overall favorite to win Super Bowl LVI. Heading into NFL Preseason Week 2, the KC Chiefs are the chalk to win the 2022 Super Bowl. The Bills follow Kansas City from the AFC. The other three teams from the conference attracting Lombardi Trophy odds are the Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, and the surprising Denver Broncos. Check out betting stats for the AFC’s top five Super Bowl favorites along with an analysis.
Betting Stats On The Top Five AFC 2022 Super Bowl Favorites
Kansas City Chiefs
- Super Bowl LVI Odds: +500
- ATS: 7-9
- Moneyline: 14-2
- Over/Under Total: 8-8
Analysis: Kansas City almost replaced their entire offensive line. If Orlando Brown is as effective on the left side as he was playing on the right side with Baltimore, KC could dominate on the moneyline.
But no matter if the Chiefs win or lose on the moneyline, their agianst the spread record should finish similar to where it finished in 2020. Oddsmakers know what spread lines to set on Kansas City games. The oddsmakers rarely make a mistake, which is why the Chiefs went 7-9 ATS last season.
Expect an 8-9 or 9-8 record agianst the spread this season. The total should also finish 8-9 or 9-8 to the over. It doesn’t get better for an oddsmaker than an 8-8 total record. The total record from last season tells us those who set the odds know exactly what number to assign to Chiefs’ games.
- Super Bowl LVI Odds: +1300
- ATS: 11-5
- Moneyline: 13-3
- Over/Under Total: 10-6
Analysis: Buffalo shouldn’t lose more than 3 or 4 games this season. Backing the Bills on the moneyline will be a safe play. Backing Buffalo against the spread won’t. Whenever a team ends up with an 11-5 ATS record, we can assume it took more than half a season for the oddsmakers to figure out that team.
Heading into this season, Vegas should already know the best lines to set on Buffalo games. Also expect a 9-8 or 8-9 over/under total record instead of the 10-6 from last season. Like the spread, oddsmakers have a better idea of how many points Josh Allen and his crew will score in each contest.
- Super Bowl LVI Odds: +1400
- ATS: 10-6
- Moneyline: 11-5
- Over/Under Total: 7-9
Analysis: The Ravens are a run first franchise, which is why they played in more under games in 2020 than over games. The total should finish similar because Baltimore faces strong offensive teams in the Browns, Bengals, and Steelers a total of six times this season. Baltimore could lose more than the five they posted in 2020.
The Ravens play the second or third toughest schedule in the NFL. Pittsburgh plays the strongest followed by the Ravens or Browns. Don’t be surprised if the team that wins the AFC North finishes with a 9-8 record. As far as the spread goes, Baltimore shouldn’t come close to the 10-6 record from last season. 9-8, more likely 8-9, is the best the Ravens’ will do.
- Super Bowl LVI Odds: +1600
- ATS: 6-10
- Moneyline: 11-5
- Over/Under Total: 9-7
Analysis: The Browns are in the same boat as the Baltimore Ravens. What’s interesting is how Cleveland finished 6-10 ATS, but 11-5 on the moneyline.
Usually, a moneyline winning team won’t play so badly against the spread. Why? It’s easier for oddsmakers to set spread lines on football teams that win a lot of games straight up, think Alabama and Clemson in college football, than it is on teams that don’t win a lot of games. Perhaps, bookmakers gave the Browns too much love last season. They won’t this season, not when the Browns have such a difficult schedule.
So expect a closer to even money ATS record, more in line with the total record from 2020, than what Baker Mayfield and his mates posted last season. How will Cleveland perform on the moneyline? A 9-8 SU record is a real possibility.
- Super Bowl LVI Odds: +2200
- ATS: 9-7
- Moneyline: 5-11
- Over/Under Total: 8-8
Analysis: The Super Bowl odds on Denver don’t make sense. The Broncos are a co-second choice, or third choice depending on the day, to win the AFC West.
How could Denver possibly offer lower odds to win the Super Bowl than the Los Angeles Chargers? In any case, the Super Bowl odds won’t have an affect on Denver’s chances to cover spreads.
An 8-9 or 9-8 ATS record is the most likely outcome. Expect a similar 8-9 or 9-8 over/under record in 2021. The Broncos should win more games on the moneyline. The Super Bowl odds imply Denver makes the playoffs, which means at least 9 victories is a foregone conclusion.
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*All odds stated are subject to change without prior notice.