Four of the most popular mixed martial artists in the world step into the Octagon on Saturday in a couple of huge championshiop bouts. In the co-main event, possibly the best overall MMA fighters on the planet, Amanda Nunes, puts her belt on the line versus Juliana Pena. Then in the second main event, Charles Oliveira takes on Dustin Poirier in defense of his lightweight championship. Check out the MMA odds, analysis, and free picks for UFC 269’s main card.

UFC 269 Event Info

• When: Saturday, December 11, 2021 at 10:00 pm ET
• Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
• TV: PPV
• Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass

UFC 269 Main Card Odds

UFC 269 Main Card Preview

Raulian Paiva vs. Sean O’Malley

14-1 chalk Sean O’Malley tries to build upon his 2-match winning streak going when he takes on 23-3 Raulian Paiva. O’Malley has a 3 inches height advantage over Paiva. But Paiva has an advantage in this that could expose O’Malley. The favorite is a great striker. The underdog, though, is 3-1 via submission victories. So if Paiva can get past O’Malley’s length and take this to the mat, he can pull off the win.

UFC 269 Pick: Raulian Paiva

Kai Kara-France vs. Cody Garbrandt

Well known Cody Garbrandt has a decent 12-4 record. The problem? All 4 of Garbrandt’s losses have happened in his last 5 bouts. However, 3-of-4 losses happened before 2020. So we can’t read too much into Cody’s record. Kai Kara-France is 22-9 and heads into this after a March victory at UFC 259. Kara-France is a tough dude. But Garbrandt has a 4-inch height advantage. If Cody doesn’t get it done on Saturday night, he may never.

UFC 269 Pick: Cody Garbrandt

Geoff Neal vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio

Save for Oliveira versus Poirier, Neal against Ponzinibbio might be the toughest match on the main card to handicap. Geoff Neal brings a 13-4 record to the Octagon. Santiago Ponzinibbio has a 29-4 record. Ponzinibbio has a win and a loss in his last 2. Those were his first bouts since 2018. So Santiago could be fighting his way back into his best form.

Neal lost his bout in 2020 and then lost his 2021 bout. Both were versus top competition. In 2020, Neal fell to Stephen Thompson and then earlier this year, Neil Magny beat him. Since both losses were via unanimous decision, we should give the slight underdog the benefit of the doubt. Geoff Neal can beat Santiago Ponzinibbio.

UFC 269 Pick: Geoff Neal

Amanda Nunes vs. Julianna Pena

Does Julianna Pena have any shot versus Amanda Nunes? It doesn’t appear she does. Not only does Pena give up a couple of inches in height, but the challenger has lost 2-of-4. Nunes hasn’t lost since 2014. Her last 9 fights have all been championship bouts. During the winning streak, Amanda has beaten Ronda Rousey, Valentina Schevchenko, Raquel Pennington, Holly Holm, and Cris Cyborg. That’s a who’s who of MMA women fighters. Backing Nunes equates to easy money.

UFC 269 Pick: Amanda Nunes

Charles Oliveira vs. Dustin Poirier

Oliveira and Poirier are going to throw down. Both are accomplished. Poirier is 28-6 and 15-2 via KO or TKO and 6-2 via submission. Oliveira is 31-8 and 9-4 via KO or TKO and 19-3 via submission. We have no trouble backing Poirier, but should he be the -160 chalk over Oliveira? First, oddsmakers might be reading too much into Poirier’s victories over Conor McGregor. How good is Conor nowadays? Not only that, but McGregor had to retire after breaking an ankle in the last fight. Oliveira hasn’t lost since 2017. So the current champ is taller by an inch, has a longer reach by 2 inches, and offers better odds? We’re all over it.

UFC 269 Pick: Kamaru Usman

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