2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500 NASCAR Odds, Preview, and Prediction

The NASCAR Cup Series stays out west this week for the Ruoff Mortgage 500 from Phoenix Raceway. Kyle Larson is the +400 favorite for Sunday’s race and Martin Truex Jr. the defending champion.

The 500 in the race title actually doesn’t mean miles but kilometers – there are 312 laps run and 312 miles. The Rouff Mortgage 500 will be a critical race for teams to learn how the Next Gen car reacts in true race conditions around the 1-mile, D-shaped oval. There’s the extra motivation of figuring out the track that will play host to the Championship race in November.

This is one of two Cup Series races at the track, the other being the Season Finale 500. Martin Truex Jr. is the defending race winner. Truex restarted second to Joey Logano on Lap 288 of the 312-lap race in 2021 and got by Logano exiting Turn 2. Truex never looked back.

“It just happened that I got a really good jump, side-by-side with him going into (Turn) 1,” Truex said. “I think he got tight or something. He ran way up the racetrack. I was turning kind of to the right, letting my car go up the hill as well, to keep him from running into the left side of me. … I’m guessing he just drove in, got tight. We both ended up pretty high on the track. When that happened, I was able to grab the (traction compound) with my right sides and get the thing turned, get on the gas pretty early. That’s really what made the difference.”

It was a great 2021 race for Toyota and Joe Gibbs Racing, which had the winner in Truex and Denny Hamlin in the third spot. Hamlin was fast early in the race, leading for 31 laps until the competition caution midway through the first stage. Logano, who won this race in 2020, finished second. He said even if he was able to hold Truex on the restart, he probably would have passed him before the checkered flag. “They just had a fast car,” Logano said.

Check out the 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500 odds analysis. Be sure to check out for NASCAR betting odds and lines at our online Bitcoin sportsbook.

2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500 Race Info

  • When: Sunday, Mar. 13 at 3:30 pm ET
  • Where: Phoenix Raceway, Avondale, AZ
  • TV: FOX
  • Radio: MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
  • Live Stream: NBCSports.com

Odds to Win the 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500

  • Kyle Larson +350
  • Martin Truex Jr. +650
  • Chase Elliot +700
  • Kyle Busch +750
  • Denny Hamlin +800
  • Joey Logano +900
  • Ryan Blaney +1200
  • William Byron +1400
  • Alex Bowman +2000

  • Kevin Harvick +2000
  • Christopher Bell +2500
  • Tyler Reddick +2500
  • Aric Almirola +3300
  • Brad Keselowski +3300
  • Austin Cindric +4000
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +5000
  • Ross Chastain +5000
  • Kurt Busch +5000
  • Erik Jones +6000
  • Austin Dillon +6000
  • Chase Briscoe +6600
  • Daniel Suarez +8000
  • AJ Allmendinger +8000
  • Cole Custer +10000
  • Chris Buescher +15000
  • Bubba Wallace +15000
  • Harrison Burton +25000
  • Justin Haley +30000
  • Michael McDowell +50000
  • Ty Dillon +50000
  • Corey Lajole +75000
  • Todd Gilliland +100000
  • B.J. McLeod +150000
  • Garrett Smithley +150000
  • Cody Ware +150000

Track Facts

  • Number of previous races: 51.
  • First Cup race: November 6, 1988, won by Alan Kulwicki.
  • Last Cup race: November 7, 2021, won by Kyle Larson.
  • Won from pole: 6, most recently by Kyle Larson in 2021.
  • Won from top-5 starting position: 20 times in 51 races (39%).
  • Won from top-10 starting position: 28 times (55%).
  • Won from 21st or worse starting position: 4 times (8%).
  • Worst starting spot for race winner: 29th, by Ricky Rudd in 1995.
  • Most laps led: 264, by Kevin Harvick in 2014.
  • Fewest laps led by a race winner: 6, by Ryan Newman in 2017.
  • Fastest race: 118.132 mph by Tony Stewart in 1999.
  • Fastest qualifying speed: 143.158 mph by Jimmie Johnson in 2015.
  • Most lead changes: 28 in 2011.
  • Closest finish: Kevin Harvick’s .010 second margin over Carl Edwards in 2016.
  • Most caution flags: 12 in 2014 and 2020.

2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500 Current Favorites

Current betting favorite Kyle Larson finished seventh despite having to start at the rear because of inspection issues before the race and two speeding penalties during it. Last Sunday in Las Vegas, Alex Bowman beat Larson in a door-to-door overtime battle that sent Hendrick Motorsports to Victory Lane for the second consecutive week.

Larson, who was the defending Las Vegas winner and winner two weeks ago in California, chose the outside line for the restart with Bowman on his inside. The two were in a drag race over the final two laps, and Bowman got significant separation only as he closed in on the checkered flag.

The win was the first of the year for Bowman and seventh of his career. Bowman got his shot at the win when a caution with three laps remaining shifted the race from a pair of Joe Gibbs Racing cars to the Hendrick teammates.

The last six races at Phoenix overall have been won by different drivers: Kyle Busch, Hamlin, Logano, Chase Elliott, Martin Truex Jr. and Larson. The only driver to win more than once since the start/finish line was moved is Busch, who won the first two races after the shift. Larson is the only stage winner to win at Phoenix in the past four events. Eight of the last 10 Phoenix races have featured at least 15 lead changes. Each Cup race in 2022 has featured at least 23 lead changes.

Larson is the only driver with two top-five finishes this year and has won five of the last eight races, including his title triumph in November at Phoenix. Truex Jr. is +750 to repeat. His failed risk last week during the late stages of the Pennzoil 400 left Truex in eighth place. It also left him in second place in the 2022 drivers’ standings.

Which drivers should you keep in consideration for the 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500?

This is a track where Bred Keselowski (+3000) usually fares well. Keselowski (#6 Ford Mustang) makes his 26th start at Phoenix, where he has 13 top-10s all-time with an average finish of 12.5. Despite no wins at the 1-mile track, he has three-straight top-10s in Arizona with a runner-up result in the 2020 season finale, one of his two P2 finishes there (2018, fall). He’s led 283 laps at Phoenix in 14 different races and is coming off a 10th-place run last fall. In the 2021 spring event he finished fourth after starting from the pole. Keselowski is a two-time Xfinity Series winner in Phoenix.

Who wins the 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500?

Chase Elliott at +800.

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