When we use the words sleeper picks, we often mean underdogs on the money line. This is especially true when it comes to NFL betting. In this blog, we choose the top NFL Week 1 money line sleeper picks. Betting money lines leads to more profit than betting against the spread. So if you agree, go for it.

Top Sleeper Picks for 2023 NFL Week 1

#Kickoff2023 #Kickoff2023 #Kickoff2023 #Kickoff2023 #Kickoff2023

5 days.

— NFL (@NFL) September 2, 2023

Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• When: Thursday, September 7th, 2023. 8:20pm EST.
• Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
• NFL Odds: Detroit Lions (+221) // Kansas City Chiefs (-286)

It’s tough to endorse the Lions on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL Season’s first game, right? It is, but it isn’t.

It is because the Chiefs are the defending Super Bowl Champions. It isn’t because KC’s D will be without end Chris Jones. So Jared Goff and the Lions’ offense will move the ball and score points. Also, Patrick Mahomes has a new left tackle in Donovan Smith. That should also have an impact.

2023 NFL Week 1 Pick: Detroit Lions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Minnesota Vikings

• When: Sunday, September 10th, 2023. 1:00pm EST.
• Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
• NFL Odds: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+141) // Minnesota Vikings (-172)

Minnesota’s defense will struggle all season. This game will be no different. The Vikings’ offense won’t aid the defense because Minny plays so fast on offense. Also, Baker Mayfield is a solid starter. Baker will move the football and Tampa left tackle Tristan Wirfs will open holes for the rushing attack.

2023 NFL Week 1 Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

San Francisco 49ers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

• When: Sunday, September 10th, 2023. 1:00pm EST.
• Where: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
• NFL Odds: San Francisco 49ers (-143) // Pittsburgh Steelers (+116)

The betting line hasn’t moved much, meaning NFL handicappers believe the Steelers play well against one of the NFC’s top Super Bowl contenders.

Mike Tomlin, for sure, will manage the game right. So Kenny Pickett and the Steelers’ offense could have a shot to win this on the final possession.

2023 NFL Week 1 Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

• When: Sunday, September 10th, 2023. 4:25pm EST.
• Where: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
• NFL Odds: Green Bay Packers (+105) // Chicago Bears (-128)

The difference will be on the defensive side of the football, where the Green Bay Packers have the edge.

Also, nobody is talking about Jordan Love, who played well in preseason. Love and wide receiver Christian Watson could hook up for plenty of yards and scores this season. Don’t be surprised if the underdog Packers win this by 6 or more.

2023 NFL Week 1 Pick: Green Bay Packers

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots

• When: Sunday, September 10th, 2023. 4:25pm EST.
• Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
• NFL Odds: Philadelphia Eagles (-196) vs. New England Patriots (+158)

Betting against the Eagles my not be wise. However, the against the spread line hasn’t moved from Patriots +4, which means NFL betting handicappers aren’t jumping all over Philly.

The Patriots’ defense will be solid. In addition, new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien will add wrinkles that could expose Philadelphia’s defense. The Eagles' D went through some changes. So there is a chance the Patriots score enough points for the victory.

2023 NFL Week 1 Pick: New England Patriots

Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers

• When: Sunday, September 10th, 2023. 4:25pm EST.
• Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
• NFL Odds: Miami Dolphins (+135) // Los Angeles Chargers (-167)

Miami may have the slightly better offense because of Mike McDaniel’s play-calling and wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. If Tua stays upright, Fins will have a shot at the SU win.

2023 NFL Week 1 Pick: Miami Dolphins

Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers

• When: Sunday, September 10th, 2023. 4:25pm EST.
• Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
• NFL Odds: Miami Dolphins (+135) // Los Angeles Chargers (-167)

Miami may have the slightly better offense because of Mike McDaniel’s play-calling and wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. If Tua stays upright, Fins will have a shot at the SU win.

2023 NFL Week 1 Pick: Miami Dolphins

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants

• When: Sunday, September 10th, 2023. 8:20pm EST.
• Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
• NFL Odds: Dallas Cowboys (-172) // New York Giants (+141)

The Cowboys shouldn’t be the chalk. The Giants added tight end Darren Waller, one of the best in the NFL, to their offense. Saquon Barkley signed his contract and the G-Men receiver room is significantly better with Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins, and Paris Campbell.

Kayvon Thibodeaux should take the next step on the defensive side of the ball. NYG should be the chalk against the spread and on the money line. So the Giants are an excellent play.

2023 NFL Week 1 Pick: New York Giants

Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets

• When: Monday, September 11th, 2023. 8:15pm EST.
• Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
• NFL Odds: Buffalo Bills (-143) // New York Jets (+117)

Buffalo remains the favorite, even though the Bills have everything going against them in this. The game takes place on the Jets’ field, and NYJ’s D had success against Josh Allen in 2022.

Also, Aaron Rodgers is the Jets quarterback. Rodgers gets to throw to Garrett Wilson, who is the best wide receiver he’s had a chance to throw to since Davante Adams. From every angle, the Jets win this.

2023 NFL Week 1 Pick: New York Jets

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READ MORE: 2023 NFL Week 1 Odds, Overview & Picks