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2024 College Football Win Totals to Bet and To Avoid

By Hank Blaine •

The 2024-2025 NCAAF Season starts in about a month on August 24. Right now, college football bettors like us are preparing for what we hope is a profitable season. With that in mind, it makes sense to revisit the best college football win total plays, and the worst, for the upcoming NCAAF Season. Check out college football odds and picks for five top win total bets and five to avoid.

Avoid These 5 College Football Win Totals

Florida State Seminoles

About a month ago, Florida State offered a less than even money payout to win at least 10 games. But since FSU was a hot pick, handicappers have begun to sour on the Seminoles.

The reason? Over 9.5 implies 10 wins in 12 regular season games and the Seminoles have a tougher than it looks schedule traveling to Southern Methodist, Duke, Miami and Notre Dame while also taking on Clemson and North Carolina at home. In addition, Florida State must battle Florida, which should be much improved.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

The schedule doesn’t appear daunting. The Irish, though, don’t feel like an 11 win team. Florida State, USC, Texas A&M, and Louisville are decent teams.

The game versus the Aggies happens at College Station, where Texas A&M is tough to beat. The USC game happens in L.A. at the Memorial Coliseum, and Louisville almost went undefeated in 2023. Beating Purdue on the road isn’t a lock either, while Florida State should be better than Notre Dame.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Here’s another win total where the payout odds have dramatically changed. Bama opened a 9.5 -110 choice, no mater if you liked over or under. Right now, the Crimson Tide is for sure an under play according to college football handicappers.

The schedule is tough. Bama travels to Wisconsin, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and LSU. The Tide hosts Missouri, Georgia, and Auburn. Although Auburn won’t be good, the Iron Bowl, the annual game between the Crimson Tide and Tigers, is always close. Winning 9 won’t be easy, much less winning 10.

Oklahoma Sooners

Could the Sooners really lose 5 games this season? For sure, Oklahoma could. Dillon Gabriel, the reason Oklahoma won as many games as they did last season, is now an Oregon Duck.

Oklahoma must take on Tennessee, Ole Miss, Missouri, Alabama, Texas in the annual Red River Rivalry, and LSU. All six of those teams should beat the Sooners.

Texas A&M Aggies

How are the Aggies going to win 9 games? We counted 6 for sure wins and those 6 wins include beating Florida and Auburn on the road.

Yes, the Aggies take on Mizzou and the Texas Longhorns at home. But both the Horns and the Tigers are loaded on both sides of the football this season. A&M is going through a transition period after Jimbo Fisher left. The payout odds are sort of inexplicable.

Bet These 5 College Football Win Totals

Arizona Wildcats

The Wildcats have a tough schedule with road games versus Kansas State, BYU, Utah, and TCU. But Arizona boasts one of college football’s top quarterback and wide receiver tandems in Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan.

Also, the defense is much better than people realize, while the offensive line is stacked. Arizona is a top contender to win the Big 12.

USC Trojans

The odds on the Trojans to bounce back with a massive season makes a lot of sense. Lincoln Riley’s offense will score points.

So over bettors shouldn’t worry about the Trojans putting points on the scoreboard. As far as the defense is concerned, Riley poached D’Anton Lynn from UCLA. Lynn went out and recruited solid under the radar players. Expect an 8, possibly even 9 win season.

Michigan Wolverines

Save for having to travel to Columbus to take on the rival Buckeyes, Michigan battles most of their top rivals in Ann Arbor. Still, it’s asking a lot for the Wolverines to beat Texas, USC, Oregon, rival Michigan State, and Northwestern in the same season.

Even teams like Fresno State and Illinois should have a chance of upsetting Michigan in what amounts to a transition season. The Wolverines will play hard, but they may not have the talent to win 9 games.

SMU Mustangs

10 wins is a real possibility. The toughest games of the season is versus Florida State and it happens on SMU’s turf.

A week later, the Mustangs travel to Louisville. SMU can beat the Seminoles and the Cardinals. Nobody else on the schedule should beat the Mustangs. Who knows? Maybe, SMU goes undefeated this season.

Penn State Nittany Lions

The Nittany Lions will lose three games this season. All three losses will happen in a row: at USC on Oct 12, at Wisconsin on Oct 26, and versus Ohio State on Nov 2.

If Penn State wins one of those three games, they should go over the total. So for sure, handicap before backing under 9.5. The value, though, is definitely in going under. At a +140 payout, under 9.5 is a great play.

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READ MORE: 2024 College Football Teams That Can Reach 10 Wins

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