One of the world’s top mixed martial artists steps into the Octagon on Saturday night when Israel Adesanya throws down against Alex Pereira for Adesanya’s UFC Middleweight strap. Before the main event, Carla Esparza puts her title on the line versus Zhang Weili. Also on the main card at UFC 281, are bouts with Dan Hooker, Frankie Edgar, and Dustin Poirier. Check out the MMA odds, analysis, and free picks for the UFC 281 main card bouts.

UFC 281 Event Info

The reckoning awaits on the world's biggest stage. #UFC281 is almost here ????

— UFC (@ufc) November 10, 2022

• When: Saturday, November 12th at 10:00 pm ET
• Where: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
• TV: PPV
• Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass

READ MORE: UFC 281 Sleeper Picks

UFC 281 Main Card Odds

UFC 281 Main Card Preview

Dan Hooker vs. Claudio Puelles

The underdog in this is 13-2. Puelles is 2-1 via knockout or technical knockout wins. The dog is 7-0 in submission victories. Also, Claudio hasn’t lost since 2016.

Dan Hooker has a 21-12 record. The reason he’s such a big favorite is because of his name. Anybody who saw any of Hooker’s last 5 where he won a single bout and lost 4 can’t accept the odds. Puelles is the play.

UFC 281 Pick: Claudio Puelles

Frankie Edgar vs. Chris Guitierrez

Veteran Frankie Edgar looks up against it versus the talented Chris Gutierrez. Frankie has won a single bout in his last 5. The victory came in a 2020 match against Pedro Munhoz.

Guitierrez is 18-3-2 and has won 4 of his last 5 with a draw. No doubt, Edgar is the best fighter the chalk has faced in his last five. But Guitierrez is 8-0 in TKO/KO bouts and has a 3-inch height advantage. Guitierrez wins.

UFC 281 Pick: Beneil Dariush

Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Chandler

Underdog Michael Chandler boasts an excellent 23-7 record. Chandler last fought in May when he beat Tony Ferguson via one of the most brutal knockouts we’re ever going to see.

Dustin Poirier hasn’t fought since last December, losing via submission to Charles Oliveira. Before that bout, Poirier had beat up Conor McGregor.

The odds imply Dustin easily wins this. But Chandler can brawl. The underdog is worth backing to pull off the upset.

UFC 281 Pick: Michael Chandler

Carla Esparza vs. Zhang Weili

Carla isn’t afraid of anybody, which is why she’s willing to put her strawweight belt on the line versus one of the top women MMA fighters on the planet, Zhang Weili. Esparza has a 20-6 record and hasn’t lost since 2018. The champ has won 6 straight, including beating Rose Namajunas via split-decision to take the title.

Zhang Weili lost twice to Rose Namajunas but in her last fight this past June, Weili knocked out rival Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Weili has more championship experience, which is why she’s such a huge favorite. But the champ won’t just give up her belt. Backing Esparza to pull off the upset win makes sense.

UFC 281 Pick: Carla Esparza

Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira

The underdog in this has a decent 6-1 record. The problem for Pereira is that he hasn’t come close to facing a beast like Israel Adesanya. The middleweight champ’s only loss happened when he went up in weight to take on then lightweight titlist Jan Blachowicz. Adesanya has 23 wins in his division.

Not only that, but the champ is 15-0 via knockout or technical knockout. If Pereira can get the fight to the mat, he might have a shot. The chances of that happening aren’t great.

UFC 281 Pick: Israel Adesanya

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READ MORE: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev UFC 282 Odds and Preview