A pair of teams that had some moments of success in 2022 step onto the field at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth on Thursday to battle it out in the 2022 Armed Forces Bowl. Baylor didn’t repeat their 2021 Big 12 victory, but the Bears did win 6 games in an ultra-deep conference. Air Force went 9-3 in the Mountain West. Will favored Baylor do enough for the win and cover? Or will Air Force get it done as the slight underdog?

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Baylor vs. Air Force 2022 Armed Forces Bowl Game Information

We're a bowl! We're 20! More history to be made on Thursday. #BowlForTheBrave @AF_Football @BUFootball pic.twitter.com/bVXw6nl7IA

— LM Armed Forces Bowl (@ArmedForcesBowl) December 21, 2022

• When: Thursday, Dec. 22 at 7:00 pm ET
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• Where: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
• TV: ESPN
• Radio: KRZI 1660 AM (Baylor) // KVOR 740 AM (Air Force)
Live Stream: WatchESPN
• College Footall Odds: Baylor (-3.5) // Air Force (+3.5)

READ MORE: Western Kentucky vs. South Alabama 2022 New Orleans Bowl Odds, Preview & Pick

Why Bet on the Baylor Bears?

Quarterback Blake Shapen didn’t have the best season. Shapen did put the Bears into position to upset College Football Playoff squad TCU, but the Bears couldn’t get it done.

For the season, Shapen averaged 235 passing yards per game and over 194 rushing yards each contest. The Bears prefer to rush the ball. So if Baylor can get the rushing game going, they should approach their 33.6 points per game average.

Baylor’s D didn’t play as well in 2022 as it did in 2021, but it wasn’t terrible. The Bears allowed 370.3 yards per game.

Opponents averaged just 26.6 points each contest. Christian Morgan led the team with 3 interceptions. Morgan’s 3 picks accounted for part of the 12 season takeaways.

Gabe Hall led the team with 4.5 sacks. Hall will have to revert to a more run-stopping strategy if the Bears wish to beat the Falcons.

Why Bet on the Air Force Falcons?

Air Force’s offense is one of the worst passing teams in college football. Ah, but the Falcons are fantastic at rushing the rock.

The Mountain West squad average 67.8 total passing yards per game. But Air Force ranks first in rushing yards per at 335.3.

QB Haaziq Daniels rushed for 614 yards and 7 touchdowns. The Falcons’ top rusher during the regular season was Brad Roberts, who rumbled for 1,612 yards and scored 15 rushing touchdowns.

One of the reasons for Air Force’s success this season has been their incredible defense. The Falcons rank first in total yards and passing yards allowed per game.

Opponents average 155 passing yards each contest. Opposing offenses go for a total of 255.4 total yards per game. Air Force ranks third in points allowed per at 13.3.

Baylor vs. Air Force Betting Trends

• Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
• Western Kentucky is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games at a neutral site.
• Under is 6-1-1 in the Hilltoppers’ last 8 games.
• Jaguars are 4-0 in their last 4 non-conference games.
• South Alabama is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on field turf.
• Over is 5-1 in the Jaguars’ last 6 non-conference games.

Baylor vs. Air Force Expert Betting Predictions

Baylor is getting the benefit of the doubt because the Bears hung with TCU and scored some points against Texas in a loss. But matchups make games, and in this case, this is a bad matchup for the Bears.

Baylor faces a team that will play all their starters. The Bears’ starters should also play, but Air Force players don’t expect to throw down at the NFL Combine, meaning they will be all out, like they are in every game, to win.

Even if Baylor contains Air Force’s rushing attack, a massive if, the Falcons’ D will shut down Shapen and Baylor’s offense. Air Force has a chance to win this straight up. Backing the Falcons at +3.5 makes sense.

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