Bills vs. Dolphins 2023 NFL Week 18 Odds, Preview & Pick

By Hank Blaine • January 3, 2024

The 2023 NFL regular season comes to a close on Sunday night with the Buffalo Bills visiting the Miami Dolphins, with the winner claiming the AFC East title and the conference’s No. 2 seed. The Bills could miss the playoffs entirely with a loss, but the Dolphins are in no matter what.

Buffalo trounced Miami 48-20 in Week 4 as Allen threw four TDs and rushed for another. Although the Dolphins finished with 393 yards of offense, Buffalo held Miami to 3 of 10 on third down and 0 for 3 on fourth down. The Bills also forced two turnovers and sacked Tagovailoa four times.

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Game Information

Win and we're in.

How we can clinch a playoff spot in Week 18: https://t.co/h1ljUCLtVX pic.twitter.com/Jwxy5x72Uv
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) January 1, 2024

When: Sunday, January 7th, 2024. 8:20pm EST.
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
TV: NBC
Radio: WGR 550 AM (Bills) // BIG 105.9 FM (Dolphins)
Live Stream: NFL+
NFL Odds: Bills (-2) // Dolphins (+2)

Why Bet on the Buffalo Bills?

If Buffalo loses this game, it can still clinch a wild card spot with a Pittsburgh loss or tie on Saturday in Baltimore OR Jacksonville loss or tie on Sunday in Nashville OR Houston-Indianapolis tie. I don’t happen to think the Steelers or Jaguars lose, so the Bills better not. If the Bills beat the Dolphins to win the division, they will also earn the No. 2 seed in the AFC and host whoever the No. 7 seed is in the Wild Card round. The same for Miami. If the Dolphins lose, they will likely travel to Kansas City for a rematch against Patrick Mahomes and the defending champion Chiefs.

Once 6-6, the Bills have won four in a row – although they didn’t play great Sunday in a 27-21 home win over New England. QB Josh Allen rushed for two touchdowns and wide receiver Stefon Diggs had four receptions.

Allen has 15 rushing touchdowns this season, tied with Jalen Hurts (15 also this year) for the most rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in a season in NFL history. Allen is the fifth quarterback in the Super Bowl era with a rushing touchdown in five consecutive games, joining Justin Fields (six consecutive games in 2022), Joshua Dobbs (five in 2023), Kyler Murray (five in 2020) and Can Newton (five games in 2021). Allen has 12 games with a rushing touchdown this season, the most such games by a quarterback in a season in NFL history.

Diggs has 100 receptions this season and became the third player ever with at least 100 receptions in four-or-more consecutive seasons, joining Antonio Brown (six consecutive seasons from 2013-18) and Marvin Harrison (four consecutive seasons from 1999-2002). Diggs has 803 receptions in 135 career games, surpassing Andre Johnson (137 games) and DeAndre Hopkins (137) as the fifth-fastest player to reach 800 career receptions in NFL history.

Diggs was on the field for just 65% of the team’s snaps against the Patriots, and hasn’t topped a 70% snap share since Week 14 against the Chiefs. While those aren’t typical usage numbers for Buffalo’s No. 1 option, interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady said that he and Diggs are on the same page about his usage.

,p>”Look I think there’s times where we definitely tag him out of plays,” Brady said. “I think it was something earlier in the season we talked about to get to where we want to get — to just not playing (that many snaps). There are plays where we go into the weekend where we purposely have him out of the game.”

Why Bet on the Miami Dolphins?

Miami was obliterated 56-19 in Baltimore on Sunday with a chance to clinch the AFC’s top seed. The Fins are really banged up and lost star pass-rusher Bradley Chubb and Pro Bowl cornerback Xavien Howard due to injuries in that one. Chubb is done for the season with a torn ACL and the fact that Chubb and the Dolphins’ defensive starters were on the field in a blowout loss drew instant criticism from fans on social media. Chubb leads the team with 12 sacks. Miami is now without its top two pass-rushers, including Jaelan Phillips, who tore an Achilles in Week 12).

Howard isn’t done for the year, but not expected this week. The 2022 Pro Bowler has played in 13 of Miami’s 17 games this season, recording 45 tackles, 12 passes defended and an interception. No. 2 WR Jaylen Waddle didn’t play against the Ravens and likely won’t Sunday. QB Tua Tagovailoa tweaked his shoulder but should be fine. Running back Raheem Mostert missed their Week 17 game with an ankle injury, but Coach Mike McDaniel is optimistic the veteran will be back Sunday night.

In his career, Allen is 10-2 against Miami if you include the playoffs. The QB is 9-2 in the regular season against the Dolphins since coming into the NFL. In those 11 games, Allen has averaged 3.27 touchdowns per game, 273 passing yards per game, has only five interceptions and a 110.8 passer rating. Since the start of the 2018 season, Allen’s 34 total touchdowns thrown against Miami (including playoffs) are the most by any quarterback versus a single opponent. The QB also has multiple passing touchdowns in 12 consecutive games against the Dolphins which is the longest streak by a quarterback against one opponent in NFL history.

Bills vs. Dolphins Betting Trends

Buffalo is 2-5 SU in the last 7 games.
The Bills are 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games against Arizona.
The totals went under in 6 of Seattle’s last 7 games on the road.
Miami is 4-16 SU in the last 20 games.
The Dolphins are 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games played on a Sunday when playing at home.
The totals went over in 4 of Arizona’s last 5 games.

Bills vs. Dolphins Expert Betting Predictions

The Bills take the win on Sunday night to close out the regular season.

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*All stated odds are subject to change without prior notice.