Diamondbacks vs. Brewers 2023 MLB Wild Card Game 1 Odds and Preview

By Hank Blaine • October 2, 2023

It appears to be a major mismatch in Game 1 of the NL Wild Card series between the Diamondbacks and Brewers from Milwaukee on Tuesday night, as the Brew Crew start ace Corbin Burnes, and the Snakes are giving rookie Brandon Pfaadt his first postseason look.

Nitrobetting checks out the game in this preview. Get a complete look at the game information, team and player statistics, and the latest MLB odds. We also deliver timely betting trends and predictions that help you secure the best picks.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers 2023 MLB Wild Card Game 1 Information

There is no debate. We have the best fans in baseball.#ThisIsMyCrew pic.twitter.com/oanNvBHcU0
— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) October 1, 2023

When: Tuesday, October 3, 2023, 7:08 PM ET
Where: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
TV: ESPN2
Radio: KMVP 98.7 FM (Diamondbacks) // WTMJ 620 AM (Brewers)
Live Stream: MLB.tv
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks (+165) // Brewers (-185)

Why bet on the Arizona Diamondbacks?

Arizona won the season series vs. Milwaukee 4-2 and outscored the Brewers 30-19. However, Arizona has lost 7 straight road postseason games. Their last postseason road win was in the 2007 NLDS vs. the Cubs. The Snakes have a 5-14 road postseason record all time.

Outfielder Corbin Carroll’s 5.8 and infielder Ketel Marte’s 4.9 offensive bWAR are sixth and tied for eighth, respectively, among NL offensive leaders. Corbin’s number is tied for the fourth-best season mark by a D-back ever. Carroll will win NL Rookie of the Year. He has the rare combination of power and elite speed, as evidenced by becoming the first rookie in MLB history to hit 25-plus homers and steal 50-plus bases.

If Carroll is clicking at the top of the lineup, the D-backs will score some runs. He’s a big reason why Arizona set a team record with 166 steals this year. Defensively, Arizona’s 56 errors were a team record for fewest in a season (excluding 2020), 20 fewer than the 75 miscues in 2013 and ’18.

With Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly not available until Games 2 and 3, the D-backs will turn to rookie Brandon Pfaadt to start Game 1. Pfaadt was the D-backs’ top pitching prospect coming into this season and after a rough start to his big league career, which included a pair of demotions to Triple-A, he has pitched much better of late.

Pfaadt matched a season-high with eight strikeouts over 5 2/3 scoreless innings last Wednesday in a win over the White Sox in his regular-season finale. Pfaadt, who combined with relievers Luis Frías, Andrew Saalfrank, Ryan Thompson and Paul Sewald on an eight-hit shutout, closed the regular season with an impressive 22/1 K/BB ratio across 15 2/3 innings of work over his final three starts.

The 24-year-old right-hander finished with an inflated 5.72 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 94/26 K/BB ratio across 96 innings (19 appearances, 18 starts). Pfaadt did not pitch against the Brewers in any of Arizona’s six regular season games against Milwaukee.

Why bet on the Milwaukee Brewers?

The Brewers have qualified for the postseason for the fifth time in the last six seasons. The franchise is postseason bound for the ninth time (1981-82, 2008, 2011, 2018-21 and 2023). The Brewers have won 86+ games in each of the last six seasons, not including 2020. During that stretch (2017-23), the Brewers, Astros and Dodgers are the only MLB teams that have 86+ wins each season.

The Brewers are 27-13 in their last 40 games, the best record in the NL since August 18. They are 49-32 at home, going 16-7-2 in series play. The team is 17-5 in its last 22 home games. Their offense ranked 23rd in the majors in OPS, sandwiched between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the New York Yankees in mediocrity. William Contreras delivered a strong performance in his first season as a starting catcher. Christian Yelich, the former National League MVP, put together his best offensive season since 2019.

It’s former Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes on the mound Tuesday. Burnes (10-8, 3.39) tossed four scoreless innings before being lifted last Thursday against the Cardinals. He was pulled early simply to be as fresh as possible for this one and didn’t allow a run in his final nine regular-season innings.

After three straight seasons with a sub-3.00 ERA, Corbin Burnes had to battle a bit more often in 2023, but he still posted a sensational year. He led the Brewers in starts (32) and innings (193 2/3) while posting a 3.39 ERA and reaching 200 strikeouts for the third straight year. Opposing hitters batted .200 against Burnes in 2023, making he and NL Cy Young Award contender Blake Snell the only qualifying pitchers in baseball to hold opponents to a .200 batting average or lower.

Burnes faced the Diamondbacks twice this season, resulting in two starkly different outcomes. In April, Burnes dominated, holding the Diamondbacks scoreless with just three hits allowed over 8 innings. In June, Burnes struggled and was pulled from the game in the 5th inning after conceding seven runs on 8 hits.

Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Betting Trends

Arizona is1-4 SU in the last 5 games.
Diamondbacks are 5-2 SU in its last 7 games against Milwaukee.
The total went under in 4 of Arizona’s last 5 games.
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in the last 5 games.
Brewers are 14-4 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Arizona.
The total went under in 5 of Milwaukee’s last 6 games.

Diamondbacks vs. Brewers 2023 MLB Wild Card Game 1 Betting Prediction

Brewers 4, Diamondbacks 2.

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*All odds stated are subject to change without prior notice.