Mets vs. Diamondbacks MLB Odds, Preview and Prediction – July 5, 2023

By Hank Blaine • July 4, 2023

Could Wednesday be the final time that future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer takes the mound for the New York Mets? The team reportedly is open to trading him in a massively disappointing season but if something happens, it likely will be at the end of the month.

Nitrobetting checks out the game in this preview. Get a complete look at the game information, team and player statistics, and the latest MLB odds. We also deliver timely betting trends and predictions that help you secure the best picks.

Mets vs. Diamondbacks Game Information

Final. pic.twitter.com/UEqu4I8PBN
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) July 4, 2023

When: Wednesday, July 5, 2023, 6:10 PM ET
Where: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
TV: SNY, BSAZ, MLBN
Radio: WCBS 880 AM (Mets) // KTAR 620 AM (Diamondbacks)
Live Stream: MLB.tv
MLB Odds: Mets (-109) // Diamondbacks (-108)

Why bet on the New York Mets?

The Mets did make a trade this week to bolster the rotation – which makes me think they will not be trading away Scherzer or any other key pieces – in landing starting pitcher Chris Flexen and reliever Trevor Gott from Seattle. The 29-year-old Flexen was immediately designated for assignment as he struggled to a bloated 7.71 ERA, 1.86 WHIP and 29/19 K/BB ratio across 42 innings (17 appearances, four starts) this season for Seattle.

In essentially buying Flexen, the Mets also got Gott, who is owed about $600,000 and who has been a solid journeyman reliever and will slot into middle relief. The Mets’ bullpen has burned them often, proving too shallow without the injured Edwin Diaz at the back end. Gott has been excellent against righties (.517 OPS) but struggled against lefties (1.059 OPS).

Three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer (7-2, 3.87) is on the mound Wednesday. Scherzer allowed two runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out nine batters over six innings in a no-decision against Milwaukee last Thursday.

The right-hander maneuvered through five scoreless frames before Victor Caratini tagged him for a two-run homer in the sixth. The long ball tied the score and kept Scherzer from notching a third straight win, but the veteran still finished with his third consecutive quality start. Since being hammered by the Yankees for six runs over 3.1 innings on June 13, Scherzer has allowed just five earned runs over his subsequent 20 innings while posting a 25:4 K:BB. The strong stretch has lowered his ERA to 3.87 on the campaign, though that’s still on pace to be his worst mark since 2011 when he was with the Tigers.

He’s still one of the best pitchers in the league as 22 of his 33 earned runs allowed came in four bad outings. He’s given up two runs or less in nine of his other 10 starts. Scherzer does give up a lot of homers, though, 13 in 77 innings, with nine of those coming from right handed batters.

Why bet on the Arizona Diamondbacks?

Scherzer has a full no-trade clause but could potentially waive it to go to a strong contender. The problem? He’s making $43.3 million this year and $43.3 million next year, so the Mets would likely have to eat some portion of that to get any kind of talent return if they decide to trade him. Scherzer has not faced Arizona this season. His first two big-league seasons (2008 & ’09) were spent with the Diamondbacks. He has made five starts at Chase Field since he was traded to Detroit following the 2009 season, most recently in 2021. In those five starts he’s 4-0 with a 3.33 ERA.

With runners on base and 2 outs, among all teams since June 1, the D-backs are first with 65 runs, a .298 AVG and 25 extra-base hits and second with a .930 OPS. With runners in scoring position and 2 outs, among teams since June 1, the D-backs’ 52 runs lead the majors.

It’s lefty Tommy Henry (5-1, 4.08 ERA) for Arizona. Henry beat the Angels last Friday, striking out eight while allowing one run on four hits and two walks over 5.2 innings. Henry set a new season high for strikeouts and now has only four earned runs allowed over his last three starts. The southpaw has rebounded nicely after allowing 10 runs across nine innings pitched to begin the month of June.

For Henry, it’s about finding success with secondary pitches. His most frequently used secondary pitch this season has been the changeup at 20.3% usage but that appears to be changing. After throwing his slider just 9.9% of the time in his first 10 appearances, Henry has thrown his slider 23.4% of the time over his last three starts.

Henry has never faced the Mets. He’s 1-1 with a 3.50 ERA at home this year in 36 innings. We like the Snakes in a close game because they have been so good at home.

Mets vs. Diamondbacks Betting Trends

Mets are 1-5 in the last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Mets are 5-2 in its last 7 during game 2 of a series.
The totalwent over in 6 of the Mets’ last 9 games played in July.
Diamondbacks are 11-5 in the last 16 Wednesday games.
Diamondbacks are 3-7 in its last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
The total went under in 5 of Arizona’s last 6 games.

Mets vs. Diamondbacks Betting Prediction

Diamondbacks 4, Mets 3.

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*All odds stated are subject to change without prior notice.