Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week – July 15th, 2024
It is not accurate to say that the second half of the 2024 MLB season starts on Friday when the league comes out of its All-Star break as every team in the majors has played well more than half its 162 games. But we should see more intensity from the players — especially with the Trade Deadline on July 30. Here’s a look at two intriguing matchups when baseball returns Friday.
Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week (July 15th, 2024)
Phillies:
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) July 15, 2024
Yankees:
Mets: @BenVerlander's updated Power Rankings as we head into the All-Star break ⭐️ pic.twitter.com/DwMQBKWTCe
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
- When: Friday, July 19th, 2024, 7:05 PM ET
- Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
- TV: BSSUN, YES
- Radio: 95.3 WDAE FM The Wol (Rays) // WFAN 101.9 FM (Yankees)
- Live Stream: MLB.tv
- MLB Betting Odds: TBA
Arguably no team needed the All-Star break more than the Yankees (58-40), who at one point were favored to win the 2024 World Series but have been in a major funk for more than a month and now trails first-place Baltimore by a game in the AL East. On the morning of June 14, the Yankees woke up in their Boston hotel rooms owning the majors’ best record (50-22), team ERA (2.94) and mark for runs scored (371), seemingly set to continue flying high atop the division. Including Sunday’s tough loss in Baltimore, the Yanks have won just eight of their past 26 games.
Manager Aaron Boone admitted his team needed the break, both physically and mentally. Despite Sunday’s loss, Boone said that his players are “in a great spot” in large part because of their solid March/April (19-12) and strong May (21-7).
“It’s been a rough several weeks here for us; let’s acknowledge that,” Boone said. “The reality is, the last couple of games from Tampa [Bay] into here, I feel like we’re competing our [tails] off. We’re starting to turn the corner and seeing the signs we want to see as we turn this thing around.”
Tampa Bay (48-48) has not shot at the AL East title and probably will not be a playoff team in a rarity as the Rays are 5.5 games back of the last Wild-Card spot in the AL. They also could be sellers ahead of the upcoming Trade Deadline, while we know the Yankees will be buyers. This is the 21st time this season the Rays have been at .500, most in the American League, and just one shy of the full-season club record set in 2017. They’ve hovered around the break-even point for the past 3 1/2 months, never falling more than five games below or moving more than three games above.
“We’ve done some good things. We’ve done some things that aren’t so good,” manager Kevin Cash said Sunday morning. “But like the way that we have played here the last month. … I feel like we’re a better version of ourselves right now.”
Righty Zach Eflin is scheduled to start Friday on the hill for Tampa Bay. Eflin (5-6, 3.99 ERA) took the loss last Wednesday, giving up two runs (one earned) on four hits and a walk over seven innings as the Rays fell 2-1 to the Yankees. He struck out six. Eflin put together one of his better performances of the season, but a lack of run support forced him to settle for his sixth quality start of the year rather than a win. His control remains impeccable — Eflin has walked one batter or fewer in 11 straight outings, posting a 3.94 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 48:5 K:BB through 64 innings over that stretch.
It’s 2023 Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole for New York. Cole (2-1, 5.40 ERA) earned the win last Friday over the Orioles, allowing one run on five hits and a walk over six innings. He struck out seven. Cole allowed a lone run on Ramon Urias’ two-out triple in the second inning before blanking the Orioles over his final four frames as he completed six innings for the first time this season. After allowing eight runs over his first two outings, Cole has allowed just six runs over his subsequent three starts (15.1 innings) while striking out 21 in that span.
MLB Betting Pick: Yankees
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
- When: Friday, July 19th, 2024, 10:10 PM ET
- Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
- TV: NESN, SNLA, MLBN
- Radio: WEEI 93.7 FM (Red Sox) // AM 570 LA Sports (Dodgers)
- Live Stream: MLB.tv
- MLB Betting Odds: TBA
TBS has the national telecast to open one of the biggest series of the year in the National League, and it would be an upset if it’s not a preview of the NLCS with the Phillies running away with the NL East and the Dodgers doing the same in the NL West.
The 2024 Phillies have a chance to set a franchise record for regular season wins, and post a bunch of other all-time great statistics this season. More importantly, they’re among the front-runners for a World Series trip. They have seven All-Stars, the most in team history. The National League record for most players sent by one club is eight — done by the 2023 Braves. The Phillies fell just short.
One of those is first baseman Bryce Harper, who is likely to be activated off the injured list on Tuesday, along with outfielder and leadoff hitter Kyle Schwarber. Both players ran the bases prior to Sunday’s loss in Atlanta. Schwarber has now been running at full intensity for two straight days, while Harper was running “either at or close to 100% intensity.” Schwarber was sidelined with a groin strain and Harper with a hamstring strain, so baserunning is essentially the final step in assessing whether either player is fully ready to return. It’s not a sure thing Harper is back Tuesday, but very well could be.
The Phillies could use them. They are seeing the limits of a depleted lineup. They did not have an extra-base hit in Saturday’s loss. Furthermore, they were held scoreless Sunday for only the third time this season. A compromised roster had to avoid being swept at Truist Park, and the Phillies accomplished that. They will look different the next time they come here in late August.
Ace righty and Cy Young contender Zack Wheeler (9-4) is scheduled to start against the Dodgers on Tuesday. Wheeler allowed two runs on five hits and two walks while striking out seven over six innings in a no-decision versus the Cubs last Wednesday. Wheeler has posted quality starts in eight of his last nine outings, the lone exception being an eight-run disaster at Baltimore on June 16.
He left Wednesday’s game with a lead, but Matt Strahm couldn’t maintain it, though the Phillies went on to win, 5-3, anyway. Wheeler is now at a 2.74 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 119:33 K:BB through 111.2 innings over 18 starts this season.
The Dodgers had a chance to finish a home sweep of NL Central-leading Milwaukee on Sunday but lost 9-2. Shohei Ohtani stole a pair of bases. With 28 home runs and 20 stolen bases, he joins Davey Lopes (1979) and Matt Kemp (2011) as the only Dodgers players to reach the 20-20 mark before the All-Star break. Ohtani will be headed to the All-Star Game along with teammates Will Smith, Teoscar Hernández, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Tyler Glasnow. Betts — who is on the injured list and won’t be able to play in the game itself — earned his selection as a shortstop for the first time as a Major Leaguer, a childhood dream for the six-time Gold Glove Award winner in right field.
It’s young righty Bobby Miller (1-1) on the mound Tuesday. Miller pitched decently in a no-decision against the Diamondbacks last Tuesday, allowing two runs on four hits over his five innings of work. The 25-year-old right-hander punched out four batters while issuing three free passes. All the damage done against him came on one swing of the bat by Christian Walker in the fourth inning.
Miller generated 10 swings and misses on 90 pitches on the night — seven of those on his heater, which averaged 96.5 mph — while posting a CSW of 23 percent. Miller now sports a 6.12 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and a 25/15 K/BB ratio over 25 innings through his first six starts on the season. He’s struggled in three starts since returning from the injured list, posting a combined 7:9 K:BB with a 6.75 ERA and 1.73 WHIP.
Miller will face the Phillies for the second time in his career. He is 1-0 after tossing six scoreless innings on June 10, 2023, giving up three hits and three walks while striking out seven.
MLB Betting Pick: Dodgers
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