Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week – July 10th, 2023

All of Major League Baseball’s stars, at least the healthy ones, will descend on Seattle’s T-Mobile Park this week for the Home Run Derby on Monday and the All-Star Game on Tuesday. Here’s a quick breakdown and pick to win each.

Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week (July 10th, 2023)

As Major League Baseball breaks for the All-Star Game, just one team is poised to lap the field − the Atlanta Braves. https://t.co/MzXrrvmRM8

— USA TODAY Sports (@usatodaysports) July 10, 2023

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2023 Home Run Derby

• When: Monday, July 10, 2023, 8:00 PM ET
• Where: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
• TV: ESPN
• Live Stream: MLB.tv
• Full Preview: 2023 MLB Home Run Derby Betting Preview

The Derby is Monday night starting at 8 p.m. ET and televised by ESPN. It’s a single-elimination bracket system with three rounds total. In each bracket, the higher seed hits second. Batters will have three minutes per round in the first and second rounds and two minutes in the final round. There are a few additional rules but basically if you do anything but homer, it’s an out. Each batter is entitled to one 45-second timeout in each of the three regulation periods. The Home Run Derby seeds were determined by each player’s season home run total through July 4.

New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso is the +300 favorite and should be favored considering he’s the only guy in the field who has won the Derby, doing so in 2019 and 2021 and it’s an odd-numbered year! Ken Griffey Jr. is the only player ever to win three Home Run Derbies (1994, ’98 and ’99). Alonso, fittingly, could become the second in Seattle.

Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the +360 second favorite but only the No. 6 seed. In 2019, Guerrero set the all-time record for most home runs in a Derby with 91. (He hit 40 in the second round alone.) One thing Vlad Jr. did not do that year, however, was win: He lost 29-22 in the finals to Alonso. Baby Vlad hasn’t competed since. If he wins, he and his Hall of Fame father will become the only father-son combo ever to win the Home Run Derby (Vlad Sr. won in 2007 in San Francisco).

The White Sox’s Luis Robert Jr. is the top seed and +500, while hometown Mariners star Julio Rodriguez is +550. It’s the first time in this competition for Robert, who already has a career high in homers. Rodriguez competed last year as a rookie and hit 81 total bombs, second-most ever, but lost in the final to Juan Soto, who isn’t competing this year.

Four new contestants like Robert round out the field: the Rangers’ Adolis Garcia (+650), Rays’ Randy Arozarena (+950), Dodgers’ Mookie Betts (+1000) and Orioles’ Adley Rutschman (+1700). As a former league MVP, Betts is the most accomplished player in the field as he competes for the first time.

“It’s the last thing I haven’t done,” Betts said. “My wife kind of compared it to [NBA superstar LeBron James] not doing the dunk contest. And that’s not a knock or anything, but she just feels like for what I’m trying to do in baseball, bring awareness to Black culture, I should probably be more involved.”

MLB Betting Pick: Guerrero

2023 Home Run Derby MLB All-Star Game

• When: Tuesday, July 11, 2023, 6:00 PM ET
• Where: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
• TV: FOX
• Live Stream: MLB.tv
• MLB Betting Odds: American League (-115) // National League (-105)

The All-Star Game per usual is Tuesday night at 8 p.m. ET and televised by FOX. The manager of the American League is Houston’s Dusty Baker and the manager of the NL is Rob Thomson of the Philadelphia Phillies. Both will name their starting pitchers on Monday but pitchers rarely go more than two innings in an All-Star Game.

We do know that Baker won’t take his own ace Framber Valdez of the Astros. Because he pitched Saturday and has been dealing with a minor ankle issue, Valdez has been replaced on the roster by Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano. Romano has a 2.95 ERA and 47 strikeouts across 36 2/3 innings. He shares the league lead in saves (25) with Cleveland’s Emmanuel Clase.

There have been several big-name players who have been replaced due to injury led by three-time AL MVP Mike Trout and reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge. Trout’s teammate Shohei Ohtani, the current favorite to win a second AL MVP, is dealing with a blister so he won’t pitch in the game but will start at designated hitter again.

Each of MLB’s 30 teams must be represented by at least one All-Star selection, although that selection doesn’t have to play in the game or even be healthy when chosen. The Braves topped the field with eight All-Star selections this year but some of them won’t pitch.

The American League has won the All-Star Game every year since 2013 – there was no game in 2020 due to COVID. Last year, it was 3-2 in favor of the Junior Circuit in Los Angeles. The Yankees’ Giancarlo Stanton, who grew up in the LA area, was named the game’s MVP. He’s not an All-Star this year. The AL’s dominance ends without Judge and Trout.

MLB Betting Pick: NL 4, AL 3

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