Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week – September 4th, 2023

While it has been a disastrous season for the New York Mets, slugger Pete Alonso has made history by reaching the 40-homer mark yet again. He’s just the fifth player in major league history with at least three 40-homer seasons in his first five campaigns, joining Hall of Famers Ralph Kiner (four times), Eddie Mathews, Ryan Howard, and Albert Pujols. Alonso is also the fourth player in Mets history with at least three 100-RBI seasons. Here are two intriguing early-week MLB games with playoff ramifications.

Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week (September 4th, 2023)

MLB Power Rankings: Why Twins could potentially make shocking playoff run, plus Braves' statement in L.A. https://t.co/hqUcdWiYrC

— CBS Sports MLB (@CBSSportsMLB) September 4, 2023

Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres

• When: Monday, September 4, 2023, 6:40 PM ET
• Where: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
• TV: NBCSP, SDPA
• Radio: WIP 94.1 FM (Phillies) // 97.3 The Fan (Padres)
• Live Stream: MLB.tv
• MLB Betting Odds: Phillies (-102) // Padres (-115)

The Phillies lead the NL wild card race, while the Padres are 5.5 games out of the final spot. The Phils are in a bit of a funk having lost three of four but avoided a sweep at Milwaukee with Sunday’s 4-2 win. Alec Bohm and J.T. Realmuto hit back-to-back homers off Wade Miley to open the seventh inning. Realmuto has now homered in consecutive games while batting .333 (14-for-42) over his last 12 contests.

Over their last 15 games, the Phillies have hit 40 home runs (2.7 per game). In the Modern Era (since 1900), the Phils are only the 7th MLB team and just the 2nd NL team with 40+ home runs in a 15-game span. Trea Turner had a five-game homer streak end Sunday. Over his last 26 games, Turner is slashing .362/.398/.781 with a 1.179 OPS.

It’s right-hander Taijuan Walker on the mound. Walker (14-5) earned the win last Monday, allowing three runs on eight hits and two walks over 5.2 innings against the Angels. He struck out six. Walker dealt with plenty of baserunners but limited the damage to an RBI single in the first inning and a two-run single in the fourth. He exited the game with two outs in the sixth, holding a 5-3 lead and ultimately notching his 14th win, further adding to his career high. Walker has a 4.05 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 119:57 K:BB across 142.1 innings on the campaign.

On July 15 in Philadelphia, Walker allowed two runs and four hits in five innings to beat the Padres. He is 4-3 with a 2.51 ERA in eight career starts against them.

It’s lefty Rich Hill (7-13, 5.26) for San Diego. Hill took a no-decision in last Wednesday’s 5-4 loss to the Cardinals after striking out two while allowing three earned runs on five hits and one walk across four innings. Through five outings with San Diego since being acquired from Pittsburgh on Aug. 1, Hill has gone 0-3 with an 8.50 ERA and 1.61 WHIP over 18 innings.

MLB Betting Pick: Phillies

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins

• When: Tuesday, September 5, 2023, 6:40 PM ET
• Where: LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL
• TV: SNLA, BSFL
• Radio: AM 570 LA Sports (Dodgers) // 940 WINZ AM (Marlins)
• Live Stream: MLB.tv
• MLB Betting Odds: TBA

The Dodgers are going to win the NL West, while the Marlins are tied for the final wild-card spot so this could be a playoff preview. LA avoided a four-game home sweep at the hands of the Braves with a 3-1 win Sunday. Mookie Betts stayed red hot by going 3-for-4 with one RBI. Betts finished the four-game series 5-for-15 with two home runs and five RBI and 30-year-old is now at a .316/.410/.615 slash line with 38 homers, 99 RBI, 10 stolen bases and 117 runs scored through 130 games. He was named NL Player of the Month for August.

Dodger first baseman Freddie Freeman has started in all 136 games this year and has played in 146 consecutive games in a row, heading into this afternoon. His last off day was Sept. 24, 2022 vs. St. Louis. He ranks third in the big leagues with 614 plate appearances this season. Freeman leads the majors with 51 doubles, one shy of the team record.

Miami swept four games at Washington over the weekend to get to 70-67. The Marlins are three games over .500 in September for the first time in a full season since their 73-69 start in 2010. Luis Arráez went 2 for 4 and scored twice Sunday. He raised his major league-leading batting average to .356, 15 points higher than the Texas Rangers’ Corey Seager (.341). Tanner Scott picked up the save Sunday against the Nationals. He allowed one hit while striking out one over a scoreless inning. Scott’s now gone 11 appearances (13 innings) without allowing an earned run.

It’s lefty Jesus Luzardo (9-8, 3.62) on the mound for the Marlins. Luzardo pitched six scoreless innings against Tampa Bay last Thursday, allowing one hit and two walks while striking out eight batters in a no-decision. Luzardo went through a rough stretch to end July and begin August, posting a 9.00 ERA and 2.24 WHIP over four starts (three losses) covering 17 innings. He’s bounced back nicely, however, two straight scoreless outings during which he’s allowed just three hits and posted a 15:3 K:BB over 12 frames.

The Dodgers counter with lefty and future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw (12-4, 2.48). He most recently took the mound last Tuesday vs. Arizona and got the win, tossing five innings, giving up three hits, one run, one home run, three walks and five strikeouts. It was his 209th career win, tying him with Don Drysdale for second in franchise history behind Don Sutton (233).

Kershaw will face Miami for the 15th time in his career. He is 7-5 with a 2.68 ERA (27 ER/90.2 IP IP) and 113 strikeouts against 24 walks. He last faced the club on May 14, 2021, tossing six innings, giving up six hits, five runs, one home run and one walk while punching out 11 in the win.

MLB Betting Pick: Dodgers

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READ MORE: Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week – September 11th, 2023