Two former champions go at it in the main event in Salt Lake City on Saturday nigh when Dustin Poirier takes on Justin Gaethje at UFC 291. Poirier versus Gaethje isn’t for a championship strap, but it might as well be. The bout is a rematch of one of the most exciting events in recent UFC history. Before Gaethje and Poirier throw down, Jan Blachowicz battles Alex Pereira in the co- main event. Check out the MMA odds, analysis, and free picks for the fights on the UFC 291 main card.

UFC 291 Event Info

Running it back for the BMF title

Two more sleeps to #UFC291!

[ B2YB @DrinkMonaco ] pic.twitter.com/3Llm8ko8r0

— UFC (@ufc) July 28, 2023

• When: Saturday, July 29, 2023. 7pm EST
• Where: Delta Center, Salt Lake City, UT
• TV: PPV
• Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass

READ MORE: UFC 291 Sleeper Picks

UFC 291 Main Card Odds

UFC 291 Main Card Preview

Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland

Slight underdog Michael Chiesa heads into this off a 2-match losing streak. The good news if you’re looking to back Chiesa is that both loses were via unanimous decision. The bad news is that both losses happened in 2021, which means Chiesa goes into this off a massive layoff.

Kevin Holland last fought on April 8, knocking out Santiago Ponzinibbio in an impressive victory. If this goes to the ground, Chiesa might have the edge. It’s difficult to back the +125 choice after such a long layoff, though.

UFC 291 Pick: Kevin Holland

Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green

Now 39, former champ Tony Ferguson is desperate to end a losing streak. Earlier in his career, Ferguson appeared unbeatable. But a 2020 loss to Justin Gaethje has sent Tony on a downward spiral.

Ferguson enters the Octagon on Sunday on a 5-match losing streak. Tony has lost via straight-up knockout, via decision, and via submission during the streak. Green wins.

UFC 291 Pick: Bobby Green

Stephen Thompson vs. Michel Pereira

Favorite Stephen Thompson had lost 2 straight, but in his last, the chalk in this fought a antastic match. Thompson bested Kevin Holland via a fourth round knockout. Not only did Thompson win, but he won in a potential fight of the year candidate.

However, even though Thompson looks like a solid play, we’re siding with Michel Pereira. The +125 underdog is on a 5-match winning streak. Pereira won a split-decision over Santiago Ponzinibbio in his last. Also, the fight versus Holland may have taken too much out of Thompson.

UFC 291 Pick: Michel Pereira

Jan Błachowicz vs. Alex Pereira

The odds suggest a competitive fight. Money is landing on both Blachowicz and Pereira. The two figure to put on a show in what should be a terrific matchup.

Blachowicz drew against excellent Magomed Ankalaev in his last. Ankalaev is 18-1-1 and 10-0 via technical knockout or knockout.

Pereira lost the belt to Israel Adesanya via second round knockout in his last. Pereira had beaten Adesanya in his previous match. This is a tough bout to handicap. However, Pereira is 0-1 via submission. Blachowicz can get this to the ground and gain an edge.

UFC 291 Pick: Jan Błachowicz

Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje

Slight dog Justin Gaethje has won 3-of-5. Gaethje’s lone losses came versus the great Khabib Nurmegomedov in 2020 and via submission to Charles Oliveira in 2022. Gaethje bounced back from the loss to Oliveira with a majority decision win against Rafael Fiziev earlier this year.

Poirier’s lone loss in his last 5 came against Oliveira. Since the loss, Poirier has beaten Michael Chandler via submission last November.

For sure, the chalk can win this. But Gaethje has fought the better opponents the past couple of years. Not only that, but Justin’s victory came in 2023. So he has a recency edge over the chalk.

UFC 291 Pick: Justin Gaethje

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