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Procházka vs. Pereira UFC 295 Odds and Preview

By Hank Blaine

Jiri Prochazka steps into the Octagon a +100 underdog versus former middleweight champ Alex Pereira. Will Pereira’s jump to light heavyweight, where many MMA fans believe he will thrive, lead to a title? Or will Prochazka show why some feel he’s one of UFC’s top mixed martial artists? Check out UFC odds, analysis, and a free pick for Prochazka versus Pereira and the rest of the bouts on the UFC 295 main card.

UFC 295 Event Info

  • When: Saturday, November 11, 2023. 10pm EST
  • Where: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
  • TV: PPV
  • Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass

UFC 295 Main Card Odds

Fighter Odds Fighter Odds
Jiri Prochazka -103 Alex Pereira -128
Sergei Pavlovich -105 Tom Aspinall -125
Jessica Andrade +155 McKenzie Dern -213
Matt Frevola +180 Benoit Saint Denis -250
Diego Lopes -105 Pat Sabatini -125

UFC 295 Main Card Preview

Diego Lopes vs. Pat Sabatini

The slight underdog in this, Diego Lopes, is a solid MMA fighter. Lopes has a 22-6 record. He’s lost just 2 of the 6 via TKO or KO and is an incredible 12-0 via submission victories.

Right now, UFC bettors are siding with Pat Sabatini because the favorite has a single loss in his last 5 and has an 11-0 submissions record. But the money has begun to go Lopes’s way. Finding the winner is tough but Diego has a 3-inch height advantage and that could be enough to swing the bout in his direction.

UFC 295 Pick: Diego Lopes

Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint Denis

12-1 Benoit Saint Dennis has a couple of physical advantages. First, he’s 2 inches taller than rival Matt Frevola. Second, he has a 2 inches reach advantage over his underdog rival. Not only that, but the chalk is 3-0 via technical knockout and knockout and 9-0 via submission victories.

Matt Frevola is 11-3-1. Frevola has been much more aggressive in recent bouts, knocking out Genaro Valdez, Ottman Azaitar, and Drew Dober all in the first round. The knockout wins are a sign Frevola is going to jump all over Saint Denis. That could lead to a surprise ending that leads to a nice payout on the dog.

UFC 295 Pick: Matt Frevola

Jessica Andrade vs. McKenzie Dern

Jessica Andrade still has a name, which is why she’s at +175 in this, but Andrade is on the tail end of her career. She’s up against it from a physical perspective because she’s giving up 3 inches to Mackenzie Dern.

It doesn’t bode well for Andrade that she enters on a 3-match losing streak. What also doesn’t bode well for Jessica is the fact she lost 2-of-3 via submission and the other via knockout.

Dern has won 3-of-5. The 2 losses were via decision. Mackenzie should have no issue grabbing the victory.

UFC 295 Pick: McKenzie Dern

Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall

Aspinall is 2 inches taller but Pavlovich, amazingly, has a 6 inches reach advantage. Not only does Pavlovich have a crazy reach advantage, but he’s been a devastating knockout artist since a loss to Alistair Overeem in 2018.

Sergie has knocked out his last 6 opponents. The knockout wins have all come in the first round. Also, Pavlovich has beaten some tough dudes like Curtis Blaydes and Tai Tuivasa. At +100 ,Pavlovich is a great bet.

UFC 295 Pick: Sergei Pavlovich

Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira // UFC Light Heavyweight Title

Pereira is a good fighter but he’s up agianst a mixed martial artist with much more experience and has a lot of motivation. Jiri Prochazka believes he’s the best light heavyweight in the world.

He’s got incredible skill, is undefeated at UFC, and hasn’t lost since 2015 when he fell to Muhamed Lawal. Prochazka is on a 14-match winning streak. He’s 25-2 via TKO/KO but he submitted Glover Texeira in his last. Give Jiri a big chance to win this.

UFC 295 Pick: Jiri Prochazka

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