Rangers vs. Marlins MLB Odds, Preview and Prediction – July 21st, 2022

By Carlos Chacon • July 20, 2022

There was a manager fired in Major League Baseball on Wednesday, but to the dismay of many Chicago White Sox fans, it wasn’t Tony La Russa. He continues to come under fire for puzzling decisions with his team struggling. The Sox open a series at the AL Central-leading Twins on Thursday. Both these teams are technically in Wild-Card contention but neither is likely to make it with Texas 7.5 games out of the final’s AL spot and Miami 5.5 back of the NL’s last spot.

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Rangers vs. Marlins Game Information

All-Star x3️⃣ pic.twitter.com/b6hv9qlIv2
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) July 18, 2022

When: Thursday, July 21, 2022, 1:10 PM ET
Where: LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL
TV: Bally Sports Southwest, Bally Sports Florida
Radio: 105.3 The Fan (Rangers) / FOX Sports 940AM WINZ (Marlins)
Live Stream: MLB.tv
MLB Odds: Rangers (-106) / Marlins (-109)

Why bet on the Texas Rangers?

Texas, which hasn’t been over .500 since August 2020, spent a ton of money this offseason and big-ticket free Corey Seager and Marcus Semien picked things up after sluggish starts (Semien in particular was awful in April, hitting .157 with no home runs). Seager leads the team in homers (22), RBIs (52) and hits (87), among other things. His 22 homers led MLB shortstops. Seager and pitcher Martin Perez were both named to the All-Star team. Perez is on just a one-year deal so he could be traded by Aug. 2.

The Rangers have had some bad luck with an AL-leading 20 one-run losses … tied for Miami for the most in MLB. The Rangers’ 5 one-run wins are fewest in MLB, and at 5-20 (.200) in one-run games this season, Texas has lowest win pct. in MLB. Six of the Rangers’ last nine defeats have been one-run losses.

Right-hander Jon Gray (6-4, 3.71 ERA), another free-agent addition, is on the mound Thursday. Gray was masterful in last Wednesday’s 5-2 win over the A’s, allowing just one hit while striking out nine over seven scoreless innings. Gray needed just 95 pitches (67 strikes) to complete his seven innings of work, allowing only a fourth-inning infield single by Vimael Machín along the way.

The nine strikeouts were the third-most the veteran has managed in an outing this season. Gray’s ERA stood at 5.28 after he was shelled for five runs by the Guardians in early June. In seven outings since that debacle, he has cut his earned-run mark down to a solid 3.71 to go with a 1.13 WHIP across 16 starts (89 2/3 IP). He leads Rangers with 100 strikeouts, and his 10.04 strikeouts per 9 figure ranks 6th in AL. Gray is 3-3, 4.19 (20 ER/43.0 IP) in seven starts in his career against the Marlins, including 0-2, 3.93 (8 ER/18.1 IP) in three starts G/GS in Miami.

Why bet on the Miami Marlins?

The Marlins still lack the organizational depth to overcome injuries or poor performances, so despite the bright spots – ace Sandy Alcantara, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Pablo Lopez — they’re straddling .500 instead of chasing a playoff spot. The biggest problem is the outfield, which has been very weak offensively.

Chisholm was selected to start for the NL in the All-Star Game but was unable to play due to injury and is not expected back yet Thursday, either, as he’s not yet able to run at full speed. In 18 games since he landed on the injured list, the team’s offense is slashing .206/.265/.309 and averaging less than three run per contest. Miami was shutout in his final two games before the break.

The Marlins have played 36 games this season decided by one run, the most such games in the Majors in 2022. Miami has 20 losses in such games, tied with Texas for the most.

It’s Pablo Lopez (6-4, 2.86) on the mound Thursday. Lopez issued four walks but limited the Pirates to one run over five innings last Wednesday as the Marlins won 5-4 in 10 innings. Lopez carried a no-hitter into the fifth inning but lost that and the shutout when Ben Gamel singled home Oneil Cruz, who had reached on one of those four walks before stealing second base. It was the only hit he surrendered on the night, but because of the wildness Lopez needed 83 pitches to get through five frames and manager Don Mattingly decided that was enough. Lopez went just five innings in each of his final two first-half starts but permitted only one run in each.

These teams are similar but we trust Lopez a bit more than Gray.

Rangers vs. Marlins Betting Trends

Rangers are 2-5 in the last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
Rangers are 14-40 in the last 54 games following an off day.
The total went over in 7 of Texas’ last 10 games.
Marlins are 17-41 in the last 58 during game 1 of a series.
Marlins are 2-6 in the last 8 home games.
The total went under in 6 of Miami’s last 8 games.

Rangers vs. Marlins Betting Prediction

Miami 4, Texas 3.

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*All odds stated are subject to change without prior notice.