Three of the top four favorites to win Super Bowl 58 reside in the AFC. Defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City is a +580 overall chalk. Buffalo is third choice behind the NFC Philadelphia Eagles at +860 and Cincinnati is a co-third choice with the San Francisco 49ers at +1025. Oddsmakers must believe the AFC has more good teams than the AFC. Check out odds for the top five AFC Super Bowl favorites along with 2022 betting stats and a 2023 analysis.

Betting Stats On The Top Five AFC Super Bowl LVIII Favorites

A look at the top 10 winning percentages in the AFC since 1970. #NFL

Any surprises?! pic.twitter.com/BkTIQHTeG9

— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) August 17, 2023

Odds to Win Super Bowl LVIII

Kansas City Chiefs

• 2022 SU Record: 14-3
• 2022 ATS Record: 5-11-1
• 2022 O/U Record: 8-9-0

The Chiefs are Super Bowl contenders, but it’s difficult to imagine KC winning more, or even as many games, as they did last season. Patrick Mahomes has a new left tackle in Donovan Smith after Orlando Brown Jr, one of the best in the league, protected his blind side last season.

That alone should account for 2 more losses than 2022. Also, the Chiefs may or may not have a legit WR1. Eventually, the Travis Kelce well will dry. The defense isn’t stellar, and the schedule is much more difficult in 2023 than it was in 2022.

Sounds crazy, but Kansas City drops 3 more games this season than they did last season. An 11-6 SU record is not out of the question.

There’s no way Kansas City should be as bad covering spreads in 2023 as they were in 2022. So let’s give KC 2 more cover wins for a 7-10 record. The O/U record should be the same, 8-9.

Buffalo Bills

• 2022 SU Record: 13-3
• 2022 ATS Record: 8-7-1
• 2022 O/U Record: 6-10

The Bills lost just 3 games last season. This season, though, the AFC East plays the NFC East. So Buffalo won’t come close to repeating their 2022 straight-up record.

In fact, Buffalo should fall to 11-6, just like the rival Kansas City Chiefs. Losses against their NFC East opponents, the Patriots, Jets, and Dolphins, a loss to KC or Cincinnati, and losses to Philadelphia and Dallas will end Buffalo’s chances of scoring the top seed in the playoffs. The ATS record will be similar, 8-9. The over under record will also end 8-9.

Cincinnati Bengals

• 2022 SU Record: 12-4
• 2022 ATS Record: 12-3-1
• 2022 O/U Record: 6-9-1

Orlando Brown Jr. went to the Cincinnati Bengals, which is one of the reasons Joe Burrow is the second choice to win the NFL MVP. Joe Cool usually posts impressive stats.

This season, Burrow should lead the Bengals to at least 2 more wins because Brown will have a massive impact. Instead of 12-4, Cincinnati goes 14-3 and wins the AFC Playoffs top seed.

The ATS record, 12-3-1, was mind-blowing considering the Bengals played in the 2022 Super Bowl. Oddsmakers will figure out Cincinnati earlier in the season. So the against the spread record will land at 9-8. An 8-9 over to under record is probable.

New York Jets

• 2022 SU Record: 7-10
• 2022 ATS Record: 8-9
• 2022 O/U Record: 5-12

A 7-10 team is now the fourth favorite in their conference to win the Super Bowl. If you don’t know why, you have a lot of catching up to do.

Aaron Rodgers is now a Jet. Rodgers will add three wins to the total. The Jets stellar defense will account for the other two for a fantastic 12-5 record.

Word is out on how AR will change the Jets offense. So oddsmakers won’t screw up spread lines. Expect another 8-9 ATS record. The over will hit 10 times, while 7 Jets’ games will go under.

Baltimore Ravens

• 2022 SU Record: 10-7
• 2022 ATS Record: 6-9-2
• 2022 O/U Record: 5-12

Baltimore went 10-7 last season, and the Ravens had almost zero offense. This season, Lamar gets to throw to Odell. So at least 2 more wins are possible.

A 12-5 ATS record should be reality. The against the spread record will end 9-8. The O/U record could flip to 12-5 because Baltimore will score many more points this season than last.

But 12-5 O/U records are rare. So we’ll give the Ravens 4 more wins and say Baltimore goes 9-12.

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