USC vs. California 2023 College Football Week 9 Odds, Preview & Pick

By Hank Blaine • October 25, 2023

The Heisman Trophy hopes for USC quarterback Caleb Williams are gone after back-to-back losses, and the Pac-12 title hopes for the No. 24 Trojans also will disappear if they lose Saturday as double-digit favorites at Cal in their final meeting as conference foes.

USC Trojans vs. California Golden Bears Game Information

embrace the competition™️

recap: arizona ✌️ pic.twitter.com/aveKkY5YhS
— USC Football ✌️ (@uscfb) October 12, 2023

When: Saturday, October 28, 2023, 4:00 PM ET
Where: California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA
TV: PAC12
Radio: 95.5 WSB FM (USC) // 850 AM WRUF (California)
Live Stream: PAC-12 Live
College Football Odds: USC (-10.5) // California (+10.5)

Why Bet on the USC Trojans?

USC lost two weeks ago in lopsided fashion at Notre Dame and then was upset this past Saturday at home by Utah, 34-32, for its first conference loss. As long as the Trojans don’t lose again, they will reach the Pac-12 title game for a second straight year.

After star QB Caleb Williams ran for an 11-yard touchdown with 1:46 left to punctuate a big comeback by the Trojans last Saturday, Bryson Barnes led Utah’s winning drive with a spectacular 26-yard scramble to get the Utes well into field goal range and Cam Becker made it from 38 yards out as time expired. USC had its 11-game home winning streak snapped and suffered its first home defeat under Lincoln Riley. The last time USC lost on the final play of the game was a 38-34 loss to Arizona State on Oct. 4, 2014.

The 32 points USC scored were the most Utah has allowed in a game this season. The previous high surrendered by Utah was 21 in a 21-7 loss at Oregon State on Sept. 29. Utah entered the game allowing 12.2 points per game, second in the country. Williams was 24-for-34 for 256 yards with no TD passes. It was his first game as a Trojan without a TD pass. He came into the game leading the country with 23 TD passes. Williams also ran 10 times for 27 yards and a TD.

Williams is currently points responsible for (184), points responsible for per game (23.0), No. 2 in the nation in passing TDs (23), No. 4 in the nation in passing efficiency (179.4), No. 5 in the nation in passing yards (2,277) and No. 7 in the nation in yards per pass attempt (9.61). WR Zachariah Branch is currently No. 1 in the nation in combined kick returns (613) and punt returns (21.6), No. 2 in the nation in kickoff return TDs (1) and punt return TDs (1) and No. 4 in the nation in all-purpose yards (143.17). RB MarShawn Lloyd leads the nation in rush yards per carry (7.94).

The Trojan offense is No. 3 in the nation for scoring offense (45.4), No. 4 in the nation for first downs offense (192), No. 7 in the nation for team passing efficiency (175.25) and No. 9 in the nation for passing offense (323.2). USC tries to avoid a three-game losing streak. Last time the Trojans lost three in a row was in 2021 when USC fell to California, BYU and UCLA at the end of the season.

Why Bet on the California Golden Bears?

Cal (3-4) also comes off a loss to Utah, 34-14, but on Oct. 14 as the Bears were off last week. They are averaging 195.6 yards per game rushing, third-most in the Pac-12 and 19th nationally. Cal is tied for second in the Pac-12 and fifth nationally with 16 rushing touchdowns. The school record for rushing touchdowns in a season is 34 in 1951 Jaydn Ott (603), Isaiah Ifanse (357) and Ashton Stredick (199) have combined for 1,159 yards through seven games. The last time Cal had three rushers with 500+ yards in a season was 2015 (Khalfani Muhammad, Tre Watson and Vic Enwere).

Defensively, Cal is tied for the Pac-12 lead and is tied for sixth in the NCAA with 14 turnovers gained. The Bears top the conference and are tied for fifth nationally in fumbles recovered (7), while sitting tied for fifth in the Pac-12 and knotted at 29th in the NCAA with seven interceptions Kaleb Elarms-Orr co-leads the Pac-12 with 64 tackles and 9.2 tackles per game (T-No. 24 NCAA).

USC holds a 71-32-5 lead in its series with California, (not including 1 win vacated due to NCAA penalty; original record: 72-32-5). In home games, USC is 36-14-1 (not including Troy’s 2005 victory that was vacated due to NCAA penalty; original record: 37-14-1). This year marks the 20-year anniversary of Cal’s thrilling 34-31 triple overtime victory over previously unbeaten and No. 3 ranked USC on Sept. 27, 2003. Tyler Frederickson’s walk-off 38-yard field goal sealed the win for the Golden Bears.

USC vs. California Betting Trends

USC is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games.
Trojans are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games.
The total went over in 5 of Southern California’s last 5 games.
California is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games.
Golden Bears are 4-11 SU in their last 15 games.
The total went over in 9 of California’s last 12 games.

USC vs. California Expert Betting Predictions

USC 38, Cal 31.

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