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Using Past Performance to Predict Super Bowl LVII Winners

By Hank Blaine

With only a few days left before the big game, it’s time for us to do some serious handicapping. One of the best ways to figure out whether your going to back the Eagles or the Chiefs is to take a look at Super Bowl history. We studied the history of the big game, including checking out which teams covered spreads, and came up with some interesting Super Bowl LVII trends.

A Look Back at Super Bowl LVII Teams Past Performance

READ MORE: Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl LVII Odds, Preview & Pick

Underdogs are on a two Super Bowl ATS streak

Two seasons doesn’t often make a legit trend, but remember, we’re on Super Bowl 57 and the tradition started when your dad, or maybe even your grandpa, was in diapers. So, yeah, 2-games means something.

Last season, Joe Burrow and the Bengals didn’t do enough to win the title. But they did do enough to keep the loss to 3 points, 23-20, which means Cincinnati covered as a +4 dog.

The year before, Britt Reid, Andy’s son, drove drunk and killed a kid three days before the game. So the Buccaneers, who were -3 dogs, took advantage of an unfocused KC squad in the Super Bowl COVID matchup.

TB beat Kansas City 31-9 as a +2.5 underdog.

Favorites were on a two Super Bowl ATS streak before 2021 and 2022

In calmer times, pre-2021, before the SB COVID season, favorites ruled. Kansas City against San Francisco in 2020 happened about a month before the outbreak.

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs scored 21 points in the fourth quarter to turn a 20-10 deficit into a 31-20 victory.

In 2019, Bill Belichick showed Sean McVay how a hall of fame coach stops the best offense in the league in the Patriots’ 13-3 snorer win as a -2.5 chalk.

Since 2015, only 1 team won the Super Bowl with a quarterback that didn’t at least have a shot to make the hall of fame.

Save for Nick Foles leading the Eagles to the 2018 Lombardi Trophy, every Super Bowl trophy since 2015 has gone to a lock future hall of fame or potential hall of fame quarterback.

Tom Brady won the hardware in 2017 and 2019 with the Patriots. Then the GOAT won the 2021 Bowl with the Bucs.

Peyton Manning played for the Broncos when Denver beat Carolina. Mahomes won the trophy in 2020. Matthew Stafford has posted good enough numbers to get a bust. Staff picked up a ring after leading the Rams to a win over the Bengals last season.

This season, Mahomes is a sure-fire hall of famer. Jalen Hurts isn’t yet. But Hurts is a top contender for the league MVP. So if Jalen wins the SB, he’ll be on the path to the hall.

Lately, defenses have ruled the Super Bowl

The under is on a 4-game streak. The total in Rams versus Patriots in 2019 was an incredible 57.5. The game finished Patriots 13 – Rams 3.

In 2020, the total was 54.5. San Francisco didn’t score a point in the fourth. So even though KC scored 21 in the final quarter, the score ended Chiefs 31 – 49ers 20.

The total was 56 in Bucs – Chiefs a year later. The Britt Reid situation three days before the Bowl is the primary reason Andy Reid called one of his worst games ever. Bucs 31 – Chiefs 9.

Last year, the Rams beat the Bengals 23-20 in a game that went under the 48.5 total.

The total for Super Bowl 57 is 50.5. Will it go under? It could. Reid knows the best chance KC has of winning is to control the clock and take advantage of a Philly D that allows over 121 rushing yards per game. Keep that in mind, and keep the 4-game under win streak in mind, when you handicap the total.

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*All stated odds are subject to change without prior notice.