2024 Kentucky Derby Betting Favorites, Dark Horses & Longshots
On Saturday, April 27, Churchill Downs had the draw and set morning line odds for the 2024 Kentucky Derby. Fierceness drew post 17 and is the 5-2 morning line chalk. Top rival Sierra Leone is 3-1 on the morning line and drew post 2. Check out morning line 2024 Kentucky Derby odds, and analysis for this year’s favorites, dark horses, and longshots.
2024 Kentucky Derby Race Info
5 DAYS! pic.twitter.com/GsuSpCuQWw
— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) April 29, 2024
- When: Saturday, May 4th, 2024. 2:30 pm EST
- Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY
- TV/Streaming: Peacock
- Distance & Surface: 1 ¼ miles on dirt
There are not lines
Top 2024 Kentucky Derby Favorites
- Fierceness
- Sierra Leone
The morning line favorite and the second choice have contrasting styles. Fierceness is a straight-up front-runner while Sierra Leone likes to lay off and make a massive run.
Based on previous Kentucky Derbies, Sierra Leone has the edge. The reason is that Fierceness is likely to face some pace pressure from either Forever Young, Just a Touch, or both.
However, although Fierceness may face some pace pressure, the fastest horse in the race almost always wins the Kentucky Derby. Fierceness, without a doubt, is the fastest horse in the race.
He’s produced higher Beyer Figures than his competitors and it hasn’t been close. Give Fierceness the nod over the Chad Brown trained runner.
Top 2024 Kentucky Derby Dark Horses
- Forever Young
- Catching Freedom
- Just a Touch
Catching Freedom had to rally big time to take the Louisiana Derby. The LA Derby doesn’t produce Derby winners at a regular clip. The last may have been Grindstone in 1996.
In any case, Catching Freedom was aided by a closer’s bias. Closer biases don’t often happen. So there’s no way to tell if Catching Freedom picks up his feet on Saturday.
Forever Young has a massive shot. He lied right off front-runner Auto Bahn before going past. Forever Young has the talent to keep pace with Fierceness.
Just a Touch is also worth a look. The second place Bluegrass finisher was part of a superfast early pace and held on for second behind Sierra Leone. Both Forever Young and Sierra Leone are worth backing to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby.
Top 2024 Kentucky Derby Longshots
- Honor Marie
- Just Steel
- Mystik Dan
- Resilience
- Track Phantom
- Dornoch
Among the above, the horse with the best shot is the Wood Memorial winner, Resilience. Trained by Bill Mott, Resilience has the pedigree to win the roses.
Into Mischief, one of America’s top studs, sired Resilience. Broodmare Meadowsweet calls Smart Strike pops. Smart Strike bred runners that were both fast and had enough stamina to run up to 1 ½ miles.
If Resilience, which took a massive step forward in the Wood, takes another forward step, the Mott runner could finish in the top three. At 20-1, Resilience is for sure worth a look to take the Kentucky Derby or at least finish in the trifecta.
Where to Bet on the Horse Racing
2024 Kentucky Derby odds and lines are available on the Nitrobetting Racebook. Create a Nitrobetting.eu account now to start placing stakes on the dozens of daily horse racing events happening all over the world!
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READ MORE: 2024 Kentucky Derby Trifecta, Superfecta & Exacta Picks
