Buccaneers vs. Patriots 2021 NFL Week 4 Odds, Analysis and Prediction

By Hank Blaine • September 30, 2021

The most-hyped regular-season game perhaps in NFL history is this Sunday night as Tom Brady makes his return to New England with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Brady vs. Bill Belichick. Rob Gronkowski’s return, too. Yeah, this will do pretty insane TV ratings and betting action.

Find out more about the teams and the key players, event information, the latest NFL betting odds, and of course, helpful betting trends and expert betting predictions. Be sure to check for the latest sports betting odds at our online BTC sportsbook.

Buccaneers vs. Patriots Game Information

We've activated WR Antonio Brown from the reserve/COVID-19 list.
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) September 30, 2021

When: Sunday, October 3, 2021, 8:20 PM ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
TV: NBC
Radio: 98 Rock (Buccaneers) / 98.5 FM The Sports Hub (Patriots)
Live Stream:NFL Game Pass
NFL Odds: Buccaneers (-7) / Patriots (+7)

Why Bet on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

Brady was arguably the best draft choice in history, chosen No. 199 overall in 2000 by New England. Brady would finally get his first start early in the 2001 season after Drew Bledsoe was hurt and the NFL hasn’t been the same since. Brady won six Super Bowls with the Patriots to form the greatest dynasty in league history.

He added a seventh last year with Tampa Bay. Brady and Belichick combined for 249 wins, including postseason, the most ever by a coach and starting quarterback duo. The two won 30 playoff games together, more than twice as many as the next-best duo.

Not only do we have Brady’s return, but Brady enters the game with 80,291 career passing yards and needs just 68 more to break the NFL’s career record, held by Drew Brees (80,358). Thus, barring injury Brady will break that mark in the first half. With a win Sunday, Brady would become the fourth quarterback all-time to register at least one win against 32 different NFL franchises, joining Brees, Brett Favre and Peyton Manning. Of course, you can’t spend your entire career with one team and beat all 32.

Let’s not forget Gronkowski’s return, too, as he’s also an all-time great at his position; Gronkowski ranks first in New England history with 79 touchdown receptions, second with 7,861 receiving yards and fifth with 521 career receptions. He is also the franchise’s leader in postseason touchdown catches (12) and ranks second in team history in both receptions (81) and receiving yards (1,163) during the playoffs. Gronk, who has 8,668 receiving yards in 134 games with New England and Tampa Bay, needs 16 receiving yards to surpass Greg Olsen (8,683) for the fifth-most receiving yards by a tight end in NFL history.

The Bucs will have receiver Antonio Brown back after he missed the Week 3 loss in the COVID protocols – Brown played one game with the Patriots and Brady before being released a few years ago. Tampa Bay also should see the debut of future Hall of Famer cornerback Richard Sherman, who was signed this week. The Bucs are a bit thin in the secondary due to injury and Brady helped recruit Sherman to Tampa. The Bucs rank last in the league in passing yards allowed (338.3) and with just three sacks all season there hasn’t been any pressure on the passer, either.

Why Bet on the New England Patriots?

New England missed the playoffs without Brady last year for the first time since 2008 – when Brady suffered a season-ending injury in Week 1 – and the Pats don’t look much like a playoff team thus far at 1-2. Rookie QB Mac Jones has looked shaky at times and had three interceptions in last Sunday’s home blowout loss to the Saints.

To make matters worse, the Patriots lost excellent pass-catching running back James White to a season-ending injury against New Orleans. Entering Sunday’s game, White led the Patriots with 12 receptions for 94 yards. He had 38 yards on 10 carries this season. The eight-year veteran, who has spent his entire career with the Patriots, has the most receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns by a running back in the NFL since 2015.

The Patriots are an NFL-best 59-18 (.766) against the NFC since realignment in 2002, the best inter-conference record in the NFL during that time. Obviously, many of those wins came with Brady at quarterback.

New England is 7-2 against the Buccaneers all-time in the regular-season. Belichick’s first game as head coach of the Patriots came against Tampa Bay on Sept. 3, 2000.

Buccaneers vs. Patriots Betting Trends

Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Buccaneers are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games in October.
The total went over in 4 of Tampa Bay’s last 5 games.
Patriots are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog.
Patriots are 4-9-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The total went under in 9 of New England’s last 11 games.

Buccaneers vs. Patriots Expert Betting Predictions

Pick: Bucs 30, Patriots 23

Check out our latest sports betting guides for the 2021 NFL Regular Season. Stay tuned for more Football previews and articles and don’t forget to check out the latest Football betting odds at our online Bitcoin sportsbook.

*All odds stated are subject to change without prior notice.