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Chiefs vs. Ravens 2024 AFC Championship Odds, Preview & Pick

By Hank Blaine

It’s a matchup of MVP quarterbacks in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday as two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs visit soon-to-be-two-time MVP Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, who host an AFC title game for the first time and are short favorites.

These teams didn’t meet in the regular season and haven’t since early in the 2021 season in Baltimore with the Ravens prevailing 36-35. Lamar Jackson threw for 239 yards and a score and rushed for 107 yards and two scores – he had been 0-3 career against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. The Ravens needed a fumble by Clyde Edwards-Helaire as Kansas City was marching into field goal range to clinch it. Mahomes was 24 for 31 for 343 yards and three TDs with a pick.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens 2024 AFC Championship Game Information

  • When: Sunday, January 28th, 2024. 3:00pm EST.
  • Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
  • TV: CBS
  • Radio: WDAF-FM 106.5 FM (Chiefs) // WIYY 97.9 FM (Ravens)
  • Live Stream: NFL+
  • NFL Odds: Chiefs (+3.5) // Ravens (-3.5)

READ MORE: 2024 NFL Conference Championship Betting Predictions

Why Bet on the Kansas City Chiefs?

Kansas City beat Miami 26-7 on Saturday in below-zero temperatures in K.C. The kickoff temperature was -4 degrees, trailing only the 1967 NFL Championship Game (-13 degrees), the 1981-82 AFC Championship Game (-9 degrees) and the 2015-16 Wild Card Game between the Vikings and Seahawks (-6 degrees) in league history.

Mahomes matched Tom Brady for the most postseason victories (12) by a quarterback through seven seasons in league history and wasn’t the Chiefs’ primary starter during his rookie campaign in 2017. Additionally, Mahomes now has the eighth-most postseason victories by a quarterback in NFL history. The Chiefs’ 12 playoff victories since 2018 lead the NFL by five wins.

Kansas City held Miami’s high-powered offense to a 1-for-12 mark on third down and only seven points, marking a season-low. The Dolphins entered Saturday’s game with the No. 1 total offense (401.3 yards-per-game) and the No. 2 scoring offense in the NFL (29.2 points-per-game). The Chiefs when allowing 17-or-fewer points, including the postseason, have won 45 consecutive games.

As noted, Mahomes makes his first postseason road start in this one. He’s 12-3 overall in playoff games, 10-2 in Kansas City and 2-1 in Super Bowls. Reid hasn’t had to coach in a true road game during the playoffs since the 2015 Divisional Round.

Why Bet on the Baltimore Ravens?

The top-seeded Ravens had little trouble Saturday in beating Houston 34-10 in the Divisional Round. Jackson was brilliant in completing 16 of 22 passes for 152 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions, while rushing 11 times for 100 yards and an additional two scores. Jackson and the rest of Baltimore’s offense got off to a relatively slow start, as they didn’t find the end zone until midway through the second quarter.

However, he took over from there, throwing for touchdowns of three and 15 yards while also finding the end zone on the ground with rushes of 15 and eight yards. Jackson became the first player in NFL history (regular or postseason) to have a game with multiple TD passes and multiple rushing scores while throwing and rushing for over 100 yards to go with a 100-plus QB rating. Jackson recorded his third 100-yard rushing game in the postseason, surpassing Colin Kaepernick for the most by a quarterback in NFL history. Jackson also is the fourth player to record 100 yards rushing and two touchdown passes in a playoff game in NFL history and the first since Kaepernick in 2012.

After Baltimore scored 10 points in the first half, Jackson lit into his struggling offense with an expletive-filled talk in the locker room. The result? The Ravens produced 24 points and 234 yards after halftime, advancing to host the first AFC Championship Game in their 28-year history. Baltimore didn’t look like the AFC’s top seed in the first two quarters Saturday. The Ravens had problems with Houston’s blitzes, ending the first half with three straight three-and-outs and totaling 23 net passing yards, their fewest in any half this season.

Defensively, the Ravens have a versatile unit that became the first to lead the NFL in points allowed, sacks and takeaways, and they can throttle an opponent in many ways. Against Houston, the Ravens didn’t have a sack or a takeaway, but they made Houston’s rushing game virtually disappear (38 yards rushing). The Texans’ longest play from scrimmage was 29 yards.

“All week we talked about stopping the run and that is with any team,” All-Pro linebacker Roquan Smith said. “If you stop the run and make a team one dimensional, it’s going to be very hard to do anything. That is a credit to the big dogs up front. I think we have the best front seven in football.”

Chiefs vs. Ravens Betting Trends

  • Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games.
  • The Chiefs are 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
  • The totals went under in 4 of Kansas City’s last 5 games.
  • Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games.
  • The Ravens are 7-1 SU in its last 8 games.
  • The totals went over in 4 of Baltimore’s last 5 games against Kansas City.

Chiefs vs. Ravens Expert Betting Predictions

Ravens 27, Chiefs 20.

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*All stated odds are subject to change without prior notice.

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