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Duke vs. Florida State 2023 College Football Week 8 Odds, Preview & Pick

By Hank Blaine

The ACC regular-season title is there for the taking for No. 4 Florida State, while No. 16 Duke can keep its chances of reaching the conference title game alive with an upset on Saturday of the Seminoles, who are sizable home favorites on the NCAAF odds.

Duke Blue Devils vs. Florida State Seminoles Game Information

  • When: Saturday, October 21, 2023, 7:30 PM ET
  • Where: Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
  • TV: ABC
  • Radio: WDNC 620 AM (Duke) // WFLA 100.7 FM (Florida State)
  • Live Stream: WatchESPN
  • College Football Odds: Duke (+14) // Florida State (-14)

Why Bet on the Duke Blue Devils?

The big question is whether Duke (5-1) will have starting QB Riley Leonard this week. He sat out Saturday against NC State with an ankle injury when he was listed as day-to-day and he’s listed the same this week. Leonard is 79-for-126 passing (62.7%) with 912 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. He is the second-leading rusher with 47 attempts for 345 yards and four touchdowns. Leonard suffered an ankle injury on the final drive in a 21-14 last-minute loss to Notre Dame on Sept. 30.

Redshirt freshman Henry Belin IV started in the 24-3 win over the Wolfpack. He finished 4-of-12 passing for 107 yards with two touchdowns. His 69-yard touchdown pass to WR Jalon Calhoun was the longest passing touchdown of the season for the Blue Devils.

“I know [Leonard] went through pregame in the last game, just wasn’t quite ready to go. We’re going to prepare for him,” FSU Coach Mike Norvell said. “Obviously, this last week, the way that they played offensively, hit some big plays, the way they were able to run the football.”

Running back Jordan Waters carried the ball 13 times for 123 yards and one score. His 83-yard touchdown scamper was the longest scoring play for the Blue Devils this season and is tied for third-longest rushing score all-time in program history. Duke only allowed three points in the game, marking the fewest points allowed in an ACC game since a 31-3 win over Virginia on Sept. 27, 2008. It was NC State’s lowest point total since a 41-0 loss to Clemson on Oct. 4, 2011. The Blue Devils defense recorded a season-high four sacks and eight tackles for loss.

The Blue Devils rank in the top half of the ACC in both scoring offense (31.17 ppg; 6th) and defense (9.83 ppg; 1st). They are the only ACC school averaging 30.0 points per game and allowing less than 15.0 points per outing. Duke has only allowed 59 total points in its opening six games, marking just the second time in the last 50 years the Blue Devils have held their first six opponents to fewer than 60 points combined (2015).

The Blue Devils are 5-1 to start the year for the first time since 2018. Florida State is Duke’s third nationally-ranked opponent faced in its opening seven games. The last time the Blue Devils faced three ranked opponents in the same season was 2016. Duke is currently 1-1 on the year against nationally-ranked foes.

Why Bet on the Florida State Seminoles?

Florida State beat Syracuse 41-3 last week to improve to 6-0 overall and 4-0 in the ACC. The overall and ACC records are FSU’s best start in each category since 2015. The Seminoles extended their winning streak to 12 games, the longest active streak in the ACC and the 3rd-longest active streak in the country. During its streak, Florida State has outscored its opponents 506-219.

FSU has scored at least 30 points in 12 straight games, the longest active streak in the ACC, the 2nd-longest active streak in the nation and the 2nd-longest streak in ACC history, trailing only FSU’s 17 games from 2012-14. The Seminoles have scored on 10 of their 12 opening drives of a half this season. In those half-opening drives, Florida State has scored seven touchdowns and three field goals for an average of 4.9 points per drive. Jordan Travis is one of three QBs nationally with at least 180 pass attempts and one or zero interceptions. His active streak of 169 passes without an interception is 5th-longest in FSU history. Travis is among the Heisman Trophy betting favorites.

Florida State is one of two teams ranked in the top-20 in red zone offense and red zone defense. FSU’s offense ranks 8th in the country having converted 95.8 percent of its red zone opportunities into points, and the defense has held opponents to points on 71.4 percent of red zone trips to rank 16th nationally.

Saturday marks the 22nd all-time meeting between the schools with FSU up 21-0, including a 56-35 victory during the teams’ last meeting on Dec. 12, 2020 in Tallahassee. Saturday’s game marks the third time these two programs have met while both nationally ranked (1994 and 2013).

It is the seventh consecutive week FSU has been ranked in the top-5, the program’s longest streak since 2013-14 when Florida State was in the top-5 for 27 consecutive polls.

Duke vs. Florida State Betting Trends

  • Duke is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games.
  • Blue Devils are 7-1 SU in its last 8 games.
  • The total went over in 4 of Duke’s last 5 games on the road.
  • Florida State is 12-6 ATS in the last 18 games.
  • Seminoles are 10-0 SU in its last 10 games
  • The total went over in 7 of Florida State’s last 9 games.

Duke vs. Florida State Expert Betting Predictions

FSU 33, Duke 20.

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