With back-to-back overtime wins on the road, the Toronto Maple Leafs are on the cusp of advancing to the next round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. However, there’s recent history that would suggest that the Tampa Bay Lightning are far from done with the business at hand even though they are currently down three games to one in this tightly-contested series.

Nitrobetting is here to turn your betting slapshots into winning goals with betting tips and news coverage throughout the 2023 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs. This time, let’s break down the upcoming Game 5 first-round showdown between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Game 5 2023 NHL Playoffs First-Round Information

• When: Thursday, April 27, 2023, 7:00 PM ET
• Where: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• TV: TBS, CBC, SN, TVAS, BSSUN
• Radio: 102.5 The Bone (Lightning) // 630 CHED (Maple Leafs)
• Live Stream: NBA League Pass
• NBA Betting Odds: Lightning (+1.5) / Maple Leafs (-1.5)

READ MORE: Rangers vs. Devils 2023 NHL Playoffs Odds and Game 5 Preview – April 27th

Why Bet on the Tampa Bay Lightning?

It sure looked as if this series would be tied 2-2 as Tampa Bay led Game 4 at home 4-1 in the third period but blew it and lost 5-4 in overtime, Toronto’s third straight win. Alexander Kerfoot scored on the power play at 4:14 of overtime to give the Maple Leafs a 3-1 series lead.

Williams Nylander notched three assists in the win. Two of Nylander’s three points were registered while Toronto had the man advantage. He’s up to two goals and seven points in four playoff outings this year, including three power-play points. Nylander is on a six-game point streak and has been held off the scoresheet just once over his last eight appearances. Defenseman Mark Giordano registered to snap his 11-game scoring drought.

Auston Matthews had two third-period goals in a span of 2:45 and Morgan Rielly recorded the tying tally, with Mitchell Marner (2-8—10 in 4 GP) assisting on two of the three markers to become the first 10-point scorer this postseason. Marner became the second player in franchise history with a double-digit point total through four games in a playoff year, joining Darryl Sittler in 1977 (3-8—11 in 4 GP).

Ilya Samsonov stopped 27 of 31 shots in the victory. Samsonov surrendered two goals in each of the first and second periods, but the Maple Leafs rallied in the third frame and overtime to erase those early struggles. He’s now improved to 3-1 in the 2023 playoffs despite posting a 3.72 GAA and an .876 save percentage in that span.

Toronto hasn’t won a playoff series since 2004 and has been ousted from the first round each of the past six postseasons, including a year ago when Tampa Bay rallied from 2-1 and 3-2 deficits to advance in seven games. Overall, since winning Game 7 of the 2004 conference quarterfinals against the Senators, the Maple Leafs have lost 10 straight playoff games with a chance to clinch a series.

Leafs forward Michael Bunting has served his three-game suspension and will be available for Game 5 against the Lightning on Thursday. Bunting should return to his spot on the first line alongside Matthews and Marner despite having scored just once in his last eight contests but the emergence of Matthew Knies could factor into the team’s decision on whether or not to put Bunting back in that spot on the top line.

Alex Killorn had two goals for Tampa in the loss. He now has two goals and four points in four playoff appearances this year. Killorn’s up to 36 goals and 40 points in 138 career postseason contests. Mikhail Sergachev and Steven Stamkos also scored for the Lightning.

Why Bet on the Toronto Maple Leafs?

Bolts star goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has surrendered 19 goals over these four games, and his hideous .856 save percentage is a major reason why the Leafs now have a 3-1 stranglehold. Toronto has figured out that deflecting and screening from distance is Vasilevskiy’s Kryptonite. The Lightning defense has allowed Toronto to operate too freely in front of the net. There have been too many bodies screening Tampa Bay’s goaltender, too many deflections thwarting him. Three of the five goals scored by Toronto in Game 4 came off deflections. So did one of the four goals in Game 3.

“We’ve got to do a better job of being in front, tying up sticks, ultimately getting in lanes and trying to get those blocks,” Tampa’s Anthony Cirelli said. “They do a good job of getting them through, but that’s a big thing we’ve got to focus on for the next game is tying up those sticks.”

It’s the 14th time the Leafs have a 3-1 lead in a playoff series. Toronto owns an all-time series record of 11-2 in the previous 13, including seven instances where the clinching win was earned in Game 5. Tampa Bay has lost nine of its past 10 playoff overtime games dating to a Game 5 loss to the Stars in the 2020 Stanley Cup Final.

“It’s dreadful,” Lightning coach Jon Cooper said. “To have the success we’ve had in the playoffs the last however many years, to have that record in overtime it shows either how unlucky we’ve been of late or how good our team actually is to be able to hang around and go to three finals when you’ve been in that many overtime losses.”

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Betting Trends

• The Lightning are 2-7 in the last 9 overall.
• The Bolts are 1-4 in its last 5 road games.
• The totals went over in each of Tampa Bay’s last four road games.
• The Maple Leafs are 7-1 in its last 8 overall.
• Toronto is e 5-1 in the last 6 Thursday games.
• The totals went over in four of the last six games played in Scotiabank Arena.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Game 5 Expert Betting Predictions

It feels like ages since Toronto caught some playoff luck in their favor, and we predict that the team will finally break its first-round curse in Game 5. Thursday’s contest will be decided down to the wire yet again, but the Leafs are capable of preventing another overtime affair from happening and ultimately prevail with a series-clinching victory over the Lightning.

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