Louisville vs. Florida State 2023 ACC Championship Odds, Preview & Pick

By Hank Blaine • November 28, 2023

Unbeaten and No. 4 Florida State should punch its ticket to the College Football Playoff for the first time – even with star QB Jordan Travis out for the season – with a win over No. 15 Louisville in the ACC title game from Charlotte on Saturday with the Noles as short favorites.

In previous years, these teams would have played in the regular season because they were in the same ACC Atlantic Division, but divisions are gone now in the conference. This is the sixth ACC title game for FSU and it is 4-1 in the previous five. It hasn’t been in the game since 2014. It’s the first time in the ACC title game for Louisville.

Louisville Cardinals vs. Florida State Seminoles 2023 ACC Championship Game Information

Read more about our spot in this week’s rankings: https://t.co/d96Alfj7oa
— FSU Football (@FSUFootball) November 29, 2023

When: Saturday, December 2nd, 2023, 8:00 PM ET
Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
TV: ABC
Radio: 93.9 FM The Ville (Louisville) // WFLA 100.7 FM (FSU)
Live Stream: WatchESPN
College Football Odds: Louisville (+2.5) // FSU (-2.5)

Why Bet on the Louisville Cardinals?

Any chance Louisville (10-2) had of reaching the playoff ended last Saturday in a 38-31 home loss to rival Kentucky. After the Cardinals took a 10-7 lead into the locker room, Kentucky scored 31 second-half points on the heels of three Louisville turnovers to finish their regular season with a win. Quarterback Jack Plummer finished the game 24-33 passing for 242 yards and two touchdowns while completing passes to ten different receivers for Louisville. Jawhar Jordan led the way on the ground with 67 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns as the Cardinals combined for 161 yards rushing. The 10 wins are the most for the school since 2013. Louisville probably is headed to the Orange Bowl with a win and maybe even with a loss. Florida State leads the all-time series 17-6 vs. Louisville and has won three of the last five matchups. This will be the first neutral-site contest in series history.

Why Bet on the Florida State Seminoles?

Florida State (12-0) nearly had its College Football Playoff hopes dashed on Saturday at rival Florida as it struggled behind backup QB Tate Rodemaker before pulling away for a 24-15 victory. Florida built a 12-0 lead over FSU midway through the second quarter before the Seminoles outscored UF 24-3 over the remainder of the game.

Running back Trey Benson scored three touchdowns to lead the Noles. Rodemaker completed 12-of-25 passes for 134 yards in his first start of the season in place of the injured Jordan Travis, who was lost for the season earlier in November. Johnny Wilson led all FSU receivers with six catches for 64 yards and Jaheim Bell had three for 38. But it was the patient and explosive running of Benson that broke the game open. He finished with 95 yards on 19 carries and had TD runs of 1, 36 and 26 yards. Benson’s 14 rushing touchdowns this year are tied for 7th on FSU’s single-season list and his 23 career touchdowns on the ground are tied for 11th in FSU history.

Once Florida State’s defense, which would finish with six quarterback sacks and 11 tackles for loss, settled in and the offense had a chance to put a drive together the Noles took control of the game. Defensive back Shyheim Brown led all FSU tacklers with eight stops and he also had a pass broken up and a quarterback hurry, but it was Jared Verse who dominated UF’s offensive front recording six tackles, 2.5 quarterback sacks and three tackles for loss.

FSU completed its 7th perfect regular season in program history. This is the 4th time FSU has been 12-0 and the 11th time FSU was perfect on the road. The win gave Florida State its 16th state championship and its second straight season sweeping both in-state rivals (also Miami). FSU’s 18-game win streak is the longest in the ACC and 3rd-longest active streak, trailing Georgia and Washington. The streak is the 2nd-longest in FSU history and 3rd-longest in ACC history. During its current win streak, Florida State has outscored its opponents 718-310.

The Seminoles did not allow 30 points in the regular season for the first time since 2015. At 12 games, FSU has the 3rd-longest active streak in the country not allowing 30 points. For the season, FSU lowered its scoring defense to 16.75, best in the ACC. The last time Florida State held 12 straight opponents to fewer than 30 points was a 12-game streak in 2015, which also covered every game of the regular season.

FSU leads the ACC in both scoring offense (38.8, 10th nationally) and scoring defense (16.8, 11th), and is the only team in the ACC and one of four nationally ranked in the top-12 in both categories. Florida State is one of five teams in the country ranked in the top-30 in both pass defense (175.3, 10th) and passing offense (276.5, 26th).

If Florida State wins this game, it would be extremely difficult for the College Football Playoff committee to exclude the undefeated ACC champs — even with a pedestrian performance by Rodemaker. The Seminoles would have three wins against CFP top 25 teams, including No. 14 LSU, No. 24 Clemson and No. 15 Louisville.

Louisville vs. Florida State Betting Trends

Louisville is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games.
Cardinals are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games.
The total went over in 5 of Oklahoma State’s last 7 games.
FSU is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played on a Saturday when playing at home.
Seminoles are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games.
The total went under in 7 of Texas’ last 10 games.

Louisville vs. Florida State Expert Betting Predictions

FSU 24, Louisville 23.

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