Louisville vs Miami 2023 College Football Week 12 Odds, Preview & Pick

By Hank Blaine • November 15, 2023

It’s pretty simple for No. 10 Louisville on Saturday: Win at unranked Miami and the Cardinals will be opposite No. 4 Florida State in the ACC Championship Game. UofL can still get there with a loss but would need help. The Cards are very short favorites Saturday.

Louisville and Miami have met 15 times, including three times since UofL joined the ACC in 2014. Miami holds the upper hand in the all-time series, 11-3-1, with the Cards holding a 0-6-1 record in Miami. Louisville’s first ACC game was a 31-13 win over the ‘Canes in 2014.

Louisville Cardinals vs. Miami Hurricanes Game Information

WEEK 12

️: November 18th
: Military Appreciation Game
: Senior Day
: Louisville
: @HardRockStadium
⏰: 12 PM ET
: ABC
: @560WQAM
️: https://t.co/sp0AJlEH6q #GoCanes pic.twitter.com/IQEnZyP5YE
— Miami Hurricanes Football (@CanesFootball) November 14, 2023

When: Saturday, November 18, 2023, 12:00 PM ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
TV: ABC
Radio: The Franchise 107.7 FM (Louisville) // KSL 1160 AM (Miami)
Live Stream: WatchESPN
College Football Odds: Louisville (-114) // Miami (-108)

Why Bet on the Louisville Cardinals?

First-year head coach Brian Brohm will win ACC Coach of the Year as he has the Cards at 9-1 overall and 6-1 in ACC play. With a win, they would reach the ACC title game for the first time since joining the league in 2014 and mark their first appearance in a conference title in any league. UofL could have clinched last week if North Carolina had lost to Duke but it didn’t work out that way.

UNC is the only other possible opponent for Florida State in the title game. If the Cards lose Saturday, the Tar Heels would sneak in the back door, although that would require back-to-back road victories at Clemson and N.C. State.

“I think probably everybody’s looked at the internet, and looked at the scenarios,” Brohm said. “When I’ve tried to look at it, I can’t figure it out. The only thing I know is that if we win, good things will happen. So that’s what we got to do, we gotta go with the game. To go to Miami and find a way to win on their home field would be a huge accomplishment, if we can get that done, in itself.”

Last week, the Cards rallied for a 31-24 home win over Virginia Tech. It was the third time Louisville came from behind for the third time this season, the fifth time in school history to accomplish such a feat and the first since 2014.

Running back Isaac Guerendo has rushed for 240 yards and four scores in the last two games. The junior has 17 carries for 240 yards, which is a remarkable 14.1 per carry average. He put the Cardinals ahead 31-24 last week with a 73-yard touchdown run — the only player in school history with four 70+ yard runs. Fellow tailback Jawhar Jordan needs 24 yards to record the 23rd 1,000-yard rushing season and the first since Malik Cunningham in 2021. Jordan would be the first running back to record a 1,000-yard season since Javian Hawkins in 2019. He is 115 yards away from becoming the 18th 2,000-yard rusher at Louisville.

Jamari Thrash has been one of the best receivers in the country this season, averaging 15.0 yards per catch. He has logged 49 catches for 734 yards and six touchdowns, leading the team in all three categories.

Defensive lineman Ashton Gillotte recorded 1.5 sacks in the win over Virginia Tech, giving him 10.0 on the season. He has recorded 9.0 sacks at home and just 1.0 in road games. He is the first Louisville player with 10.0 sacks since Yasir Abdullah notched 10 in 2021.

The Cardinals are 3-1 in road/neutral matchups this season, but have been out-scored by an average margin of 0.5 points, although this is skewed heavily by the loss at Pitt. In these four games, they’ve also only out-gained their opponent by an average mark of 74.5 yards. Louisville has averaged 38.8 points and 459.7 yards per game at home, but just 23.5 points and 408.0 yards away from L&N Stadium. Defensively, the yardage home/away splits haven’t been as drastic, as Louisville is allowing on average 277.8 yards per game at home to 333.5 yards per game on the road.

Why Bet on the Miami Hurricanes?

Miami is simply trying to play spoiler and improve its bowl positioning. Tyler Van Dyke was pulled as the starting QB in last week’s 27-20 loss at Florida State after struggling mightily early on, but freshman replacement Emory Williams suffered a serious injury so Van Dyke will start again. The veteran started the season playing at a high level, but over the past month, his performance slipped. In his past five games, including Florida State, Van Dyke has thrown 11 interceptions. He hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass since he threw four against North Carolina on Oct. 14.

Miami’s other quarterback option, sophomore Jacurri Brown, has not gotten into a game this season but played in eight as a freshman in 2022. He started two games last season, picking up a win over Georgia Tech. He completed 60 percent of his passes for 230 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions. He also ran for 223 yards.

Jacolby George, who has started every game in the midst of a breakout year, posted a career-best 153 yards on five receptions, including two touchdowns against FSU with 131 of George’s yards came after catch, and the multi-touchdown performance was his second of the year. He was named ACC Receiver of the Week. UM running backs Henry Parrish Jr. and Ajay Allen are expected to return to the field Saturday after missing the FSU game. Parrish is Miami’s leading rusher this season with 469 yards (5 more yards than Chaney). He has four rushing touchdowns.

Louisville vs Miami Betting Trends

Louisville is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games against Miami.
Cardinals are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games.
The total went under in 10 of Louisville’s last 15 games.
Miami is 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games.
Hurricanes are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games.
The total went over in 4 of Miami’s last 6 games played in week 12.

Louisville vs Miami Expert Betting Predictions

Miami 27, Louisville 24.

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