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LSU vs. Mississippi State 2023 College Football Week 3 Odds, Preview & Pick

By Hank Blaine

LSU was the SEC West Division champion last year in a surprise, and the No. 14 Tigers open conference action this Saturday as they visit upset-minded Mississippi State. LSU leads the series 77-36-3 and is 17-7-1 all-time in Starkville.

Last year, LSU beat visiting Mississippi 31-16. Tigers QB Jayden Daniels accounted for more than 300 yards of offense, including one touchdown passing and one rushing, and the Tigers wiped out a 13-point deficit. Daniels completed 22 of 37 passes for 210 yards without an interception, and also rushed for 93 yards, mostly on scrambles. The Tigers finished it off with Armoni Goodwin’s 47-yard touchdown run with 4:50 left and Jay Ward’s interception of Bulldogs QB Will Rogers. LSU outscored Mississippi State 21-0 in the fourth quarter and 31-3 during the game’s final 31 minute.

LSU Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Game Information

  • When: Saturday, September 16, 2023, 12:00 PM ET
  • Where: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
  • TV: ESPN
  • Radio: WDGL 98.1 FM (LSU) // 100.9 FM (Mississippi State)
  • Live Stream: WatchESPN
  • College Football Odds: LSU (-10) // Mississippi State (+10)

Why Bet on the LSU Tigers?

LSU (1-1) bounced back from an opening loss at Florida State with a 62-10 win over Grambling this past Saturday as Daniels threw for a career high five touchdown passes in the first half. Daniels, who finished 18-of-24 for 269 yards, became the fourth Tiger to throw for at least five touchdowns in a single game, joining Joe Burrow, Max Johnson and Zach Mettenberger. His five touchdowns powered the Tigers to 423 yards of total offense and 42 points in the first half. It marked the first time LSU has scored 70 points or more in a game since the seven overtime game at Texas A&M in 2018 in which the Tigers also scored 72 points. LSU’s offense scored a touchdown on their first 10 possessions until the final drive when the Tigers were forced to turn the ball over on downs with 4:19 remaining in the contest. LSU rushed for 302 yards in the game, marking the 13th straight time LSU has won when rushing for over 200 yards. Logan Diggs made his LSU debut and he made an immediate impact. The running back surpassed 1,000 total yards at Notre Dame last year and brought much-needed production to a Tigers running back room that lacked proven options. Diggs got the bulk of the work with the first team. Carrying it 13 times for 106 yards and a touchdown. “To have 10 straight possessions to score in this game, when someone doesn’t want you to score, is really hard,” Coach Brian Kelly said. “You have to have focus, an attention to detail, playmakers.” Saturday’s will be the site for the SEC Network’s pregame show. It’s the first trip back to Starkville for the crew since Oct. 8, 2022 when Mississippi State picked up a homecoming victory against Arkansas.

Why Bet on the Mississippi State Bulldogs?

The Bulldogs (2-0) come off a 31-24 home OT win over Arizona in Week 2. MSU’s Jeffery Pittman scored on a 29-yard reception on the opening possession of the extra period and the State defense held strong. Bulldogs QB Will Rogers finished the night 13-of-17 passing for 162 yards and three touchdowns. The signal-caller currently sits in seventh place on the SEC’s all-time career passing yards list. Rogers now has 21 career games with multiple passing touchdowns.

Running back Jo’Quavious Marks hauled in four catches for 32 yards while also notching 123 rushing yards to go along with his one touchdown. Marks needs one reception to become the all-time receptions leader in MSU history. With one more he will have 200 and that would move him to 12th on the SEC’s all-time receptions list. His 21 career TDs are 10th on the All-Time MSU Career Rushing List. Marks is now tied with Don Smith (1983-86).

Marks leads the SEC in rushing yards with 250 and is tied for first in rushing touchdowns with three. Mississippi State averages 221.5 rushing yards per game, ranking second in the SEC and 20th in the NCAA. In the previous three years combined, MSU averaged 63.9 yards per game.

MSU forced turnovers on Arizona’s first four drives. The last time State recorded three turnovers in three opening drives was Sept. 5th, 2009, against Jackson State. The Bulldogs have never forced four turnovers to open a game in the 21st century.

Mississippi State has collected at least one takeaway in 32 of 39 games under Zach Arnett, with 63 total takeaways in that span. State leads the SEC during that time, with the next closest being Alabama (61) and South Carolina (61). With a win in this game, Arnett would become the first head coach in program history to start their MSU career with a 4-0 record. He took over in last season’s bowl game after Mike Leach shockingly died.

LSU vs. Mississippi State Betting Trends

  • Louisiana State is 11-4 SU in the last 15 games.
  • LSU is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road.
  • The total went over in 6 of LSU’s last 6 games.
  • Mississippi State is 5-0 SU in the last 5 games.
  • MSU is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Mississippi State’s last 5 games.

LSU vs. Mississippi State Expert Betting Predictions

LSU 30, Mississippi State 27.

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