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Picking the Perfect March Madness Bracket

By Hank Blaine

Ask any college basketball handicapper and they will tell you that their one dream, what they wish they could do more than anything else, is pick the perfect March Madness Bracket. Picking a perfect bracket is close to impossible, which is why so many places offer a king’s ransom for anyone who can accomplish the feat. Keep reading for the insane odds to picking a perfect March Madness Bracket along with some pointers on lowering the NCAAB odds and grabbing at least a shot to creating the perfect bracket.

What Are the Odds of Picking a Perfect March Madness Bracket?

READ MORE: Which Teams Do Odds Makers Give the Best Chances to Win 2022 March Madness?

The Insane Odds to Picking a Perfect March Madness Bracket

NCAA.com lists the odds of creating the perfect March Madness Bracket as the following:

  • 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 (if you just guess or flip a coin)
  • 1 in 120.2 billion (if you know a little something about basketball)

So if you know something about basketball, you cut your odds to 120.2 billion-to-1. Hey, 120.2 billion-to-1 is better than 9.2 gazillion, or whatever the above number is, to 1. The bottom line? Don’t get your hopes up. But it still makes sense to take a shot. Why? Well, why not? We should always tell ourselves, someone wins the lottery, so why can’t that someone be me? Check out top tips to lowering the odds and giving you a better, well, infinitesimal better, shot of creating the perfect March Madness Bracket.

Top Tips to Lower The Astronomical Perfect March Madness Bracket Odds

Go against just a single 1-seed to make the Final Four

In the first two rounds, underdogs play well enough to win on the moneyline and against the spread. But once the Sweet 16 begins, the top seeds often perform much better. To be fair, 2 seeds and 3 seeds can make the Final Four. Heck, 11 seeds and 6 seeds can. But in most seasons, a single 3-seed or 2-seed joins three 1-seeds. So stick with 1-seeds to make the Final Four.

Choose a 1-seed to win it all

The last 2-seed to win it all was Villanova in 2016. Since 2016, 1-seeds have won the title. So make sure to choose a 1-seed to win it all. Again, a 2-seed or 3-seed or possibly a 6-seed could win the title. But the chances of that happening are far less than a 1-seed cutting down the nets. So if you’re looking to create the perfect March Madness Bracket, choose a 1-seed to win it all.

Most upsets happen in the first couple of rounds

Since most upsets happen in the first couple of rounds, you should think about upsets only in the first couple of rounds. So if you like Arizona as a 1-seed to win it all, go ahead and move Arizona all the way to National Championship first. In fact, a good idea is to choose your Elite Eight, Final Four, and National Championship teams first.

Look for upsets in games where the higher seed enters the matchup “cold”

If you’re looking for upset winners in the first and second round, and those are the rounds where the majority of lower seeds upset their higher seeded opponents, play against higher seeds that enter the tournament cold. What we mean by cold is to play against a team that didn’t perform well in their conference tournament. Also think injuries. Very good teams could become bad teams if their top player won’t step onto the court during the Big Dance.

When in doubt, go with your gut

If you have doubts, always go with your gut before allowing stats or trends to change your mind. Stats and trends are great, but no amount of stat and trend handicapping can move the needle as much as your gut. We’re talking 1 in 120.2 billion odds. Your gut is as good of a handicapping tool to create the perfect March Madness Bracket as stats and trends.

The stats and trends will confuse you more than they help, and, let’s be honest, it’s doubtful you will create the perfect March Madness Bracket anyhow. So why not go with your gut?

This is just one of the many sports betting guides that you can read here at NitroBetting news. Stay tuned for more NCAAB game previews and articles and don’t forget to check out the latest Basketball betting odds on the sportsbook.