Pirates vs. Marlins MLB Odds, Preview and Prediction – June 22, 2023

By Hank Blaine • June 21, 2023

Two of the most improved teams in the majors leagues this season are the Miami Marlins and Pittsburgh Pirates and both have NL playoff aspirations – the Marlins are much more likely to make it than the Bucs. They open a series in Miami on Thursday. Thursday is the first meeting of the season between the teams. The Marlins close the 2023 regular season in Pittsburgh.

Nitrobetting checks out the game in this preview. Get a complete look at the game information, team and player statistics, and the latest MLB odds. We also deliver timely betting trends and predictions that help you secure the best picks.

Pirates vs. Marlins Game Information

Luis Arraez Hits (Jon Jay) https://t.co/WRtDTvBoLH pic.twitter.com/Z6DtuKXHca
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) June 21, 2023

When: Thursday, June 22, 2023, 6:40 PM ET
Where: LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL
TV: ATTP, BSFL
Radio: SportsRadio 93.7 THE FAN (Pirates) // 940 WINZ (Marlins)
Live Stream: MLB.tv
MLB Odds: Pirates (+116) // Marlins (-133)

Why bet on the Pittsburgh Pirates?

Two key Pirates are in question Thursday in outfielders Andrew McCutchen and Bryan Reynolds as both missed the final two games of this week’s Cubs series. McCutchen is dealing with an elbow injury and is day-to-day. He is double shy of 400 in his career (his next double will also be his 300th as a Pirate). McCutchen ranks seventh all-time in Pirates history in doubles. Only five active players have produced 400 or more doubles in their MLB career.

Reynolds is dealing with a back injury and the team hopes he doesn’t have to land on the injured list. Reynolds has a .406 OBP in 16 games this month and his 40 RBIs out of the second spot of the lineup ranks third in the NL. The last thing the struggling and offensively inept Pirates need is injuries to those two guys.

It’s ace Mitch Keller (8-3) on the mound Thursday. Keller took the loss against Milwaukee on Saturday, allowing four runs on five hits and three walks while striking out seven batters over five innings. Keller yielded a pair of two-run innings, which was enough to send him to defeat in a game during which Pittsburgh couldn’t do anything offensively. Keller has given up four or more runs in four of his past five starts after doing so only once through his initial 10 outings. The rough stretch has pushed his season ERA to 3.62 after it sat at 2.44 less than a month ago.

Keller is 1-0 in four career starts vs. the Marlins, allowing six runs in 16.2 innings. He went 1-0 in two starts in 2022, allowing one run in 7.0 innings in a 5-1 win at Miami on July 11 along with a no-decision (6.0ip/3er) in a 6-5 loss on July 24 at PNC Park.

Why bet on the Miami Marlins?

Miami All-Star infielder Jazz Chisholm began a rehab assignment this week with Triple-A Jacksonville. Out since mid-May because of turf toe in his right foot, Chisholm could be ready to return at some point this weekend but probably not Thursday. The 25-year-old was slashing .229/.291/.403 with seven homers and 14 steals in 39 games prior to the lengthy IL stint.

MLB batting leader Luis Arraez, who won the 2022 AL batting title with Minnesota, has joined Ty Cobb in 1922 as the only players in the Modern Era to record three 5-hit games in a 15-game span. Arraez was the player in MLB to record three 5-hit games in a season since Ender Inciarte did so in 2017 with Atlanta. Only four players have recorded four 5-hit games in a season, the last being Ichiro Suzuki in 2004. Sets club record for most 5-hit games in a season; Juan Pierre had two 5-hit games in 2005.

Jorge Soler ranks t-3rd in MLB with 21 home runs this season and leads all of MLB with 11 go-ahead home runs. He is the 10th Marlins player (14th occurrence) to hit 20-or-more by the All-Star break.

It’s lefty Braxton Garrett (3-2, 3.88 ERA) on the mound Thursday for the Marlins. Garrett picked up the win in Saturday’s 5-2 victory over the Nationals, allowing one run on four hits and a walk over six innings. He struck out eight. The southpaw continues to give the Marlins some stability in their rotation. Garrett has given up two runs or less in six of his last seven starts, posting a 2.13 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 49:8 K:BB through 38 innings over that stretch.

Garrett last pitched against Pittsburgh on July 22 last year and threw 6.0 innings, allowing just 1 run on 2 hits with 7 strikeouts to earn the win at PNC Park. In 2 starts last season against Pittsburgh, he allowed just that 1 run over 12.0 innings (0.75 ERA) and 18 SO, including a career-high 11 strikeouts on July 14. In 19 career starts (20 apps.) at home, Garrett has a 4.13 ERA (96.0 IP/44 ER) and has gone 4-7 with 112 strikeouts. In 20 starts away (21 apps.), he is 4-5 with a 3.92 ERA (103.1 IP/45 ER) and 95 strikeouts.

Pirates vs. Marlins Betting Trends

Pittsburgh is 0-9 SU in the last 9 games.
Pirates are 1-4 SU in its last 5 games against Miami.
The total went under in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games.
Miami is 13-5 SU in their last 18 games.
Marlins are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games at home.
The total went over in 5 of Miami’s last 6 games played on a Thursday.

Pirates vs. Marlins Betting Prediction

Marlins 4, Pirates 3.

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*All odds stated are subject to change without prior notice.