TCU vs. Michigan 2022 Fiesta Bowl CFP Semifinal Odds, Preview & Pick

By Hank Blaine • December 28, 2022

The first College Football Playoff Semifinal on New Year’s Eve pits the TCU Horned Frogs against the Michigan Wolverines. TCU is the +7.5 underdog. Does Max Duggan have some magic in his holsters? Or will Michigan prove best in the first semi? Check out College Football odds, analysis, and a free pick for TCU versus Michigan.

Before everything else, NitroBetting arms you with everything you need to kick things off on a positive note. Below, we provide event details, team andplayer statistics, and the latest NCAAF odds. More than that, we go the extra mile and share timely betting trends and predictions that help you secure the best picks. Check out for more sports betting odds and lines, exclusively at our online Bitcoin sportsbook.

TCU vs. Michigan 2022 Fiesta Bowl CFP Semifinal Game Information

When: Saturday, Dec. 31 at 4:00 pm ET
Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
TV: ESPN
Radio: WBAP 820 AM (TCU) // WXYT-FM 97.1 FM (Michigan)

Live Stream

WatchESPN

College Footall Odds: TCU (+7.5) // Michigan (-7.5)

Why Bet on the TCU Horned Frogs?

TCU sent one of the nation’s top offenses to the field this season. The Horned Frogs’ success started with the terrific Max Duggan.

Duggan’s stats impressed, but it was his leadership that carried the Frogs. Duggan put TCU’s offense on his shoulders throughout the season. Max’s play led to a 40.3 points per game average.

TCU’s defense struggled at time but for the most part, the Horned Frogs held opponents in check. Opposing offenses averaged 25 points from 384.6 yards per game.

Dee Winters had a terrific season, sacking quarterbacks 7.5 times. Bud Clark, a possible first round NFL Draft pick, secured 4 interceptions. Overall, the Horned Frogs forced 14 takeaways.

Why Bet on the Michigan Wolverines?

13-0 Michigan got the offense going big time in their last couple of games. Versus Ohio State, Michigan scored 45 in a rout victory.

Then in the Big Ten Championship, the Wolverines scored 43 in another rout win. Quarterback J McCarthy threw just 3 picks during the season.

Although the Wolverines must play without star running back Blake Corum, the rushing attack should have no trouble opening up holes for Donovan Edwards. Corum’s backup rushed for 185 with 2 TDs against Purdue.

All season, opposing offenses struggled to score. Michigan ranks fifth in college football in points allowed per game.

Opponents average just 13.4 each contest. Michigan holds opposing teams to 277.1 yards each game, ranking third. Mike Morris led the team with 7 sacks. Rod Moore had 3 interceptions.

TCU vs. Michigan Betting Trends

Horned Frogs are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games.
TCU is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 games on grass.
Under is 4-1 in TCU’s last 4 games.
Wolverines are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 games after allowing 280 or more passing yards in their previous contest.
Michigan is 0-5 ATS in the last 5 bowl games.
Over is 14-4 in Michigan’s last 18 neutral site games.

TCU vs. Michigan Expert Betting Predictions

At first glance, it sure looks as if Michigan will dominate TCU. But if that’s the case, why has the line fallen by 2.5 points?

Michigan opened a -10 chalk. Since the opening line, the Wolverines have fallen to a -7.5 choice. The action suggests TCU will play well enough to make this much closer than many believe.

The line movement has been so dramatic that we had to take a closer look at each team. After the closer look, it’s apparent why so many are taking the points on TCU.

This is a bad matchup for Michigan. Max Duggan is the best quarterback Michigan has faced all season long. Sure, CJ Stroud has the stats, but Duggan has the wins against top competition.

More importantly, Michigan’s offense, even though it dominated Ohio State and Purdue, doesn’t have the firepower to hang with TCU. If the Horned Frogs get an early lead, things could get dicey.

In any case, action speaks louder than words. All of the money is going to the Horned Frogs. We’re not arguing against facts.

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*All stated odds are subject to change without prior notice.