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2021 NFL Playoffs Conference Championship Round Odds, Preview, & Picks

By Hank Blaine

The 2021 NFL Playoffs is now down to just four teams: the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Green Bay Packers. Both top seeds in the AFC and NFC are still alive and, obviously, favored to win their respective games this weekend. But this is the NFL postseason, where crazy things can happen. Buckle up as we breakdown the 2021 NFL Playoffs Conference Championship Round odds, betting trends, and game preview.

2021 AFC Championship Preview: Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs

When: Sunday, January 16, 2021 | 3:05 PM ET

Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City


Radio: Buffalo/Kansas City

Live Stream: NFL Network

2021 AFC Championship Odds: Chiefs (-3.0) / O/U line: 54.0

Will Patrick Mahomes play? According to a recent report by Mike Garofolo of the NFL Network, Mahomes, who suffered a concussion in last week’s win over the Cleveland Browns in the Divisional Round, had finally participated in practice on Wednesday, albeit in a limited fashion. Still, that’s one piece of good news for the Chiefs, who already have a win over the Bills this season. The Chiefs defeated Buffalo in Week 6, 26-17, on the road. Another availability status to watch out for over the Kansas City side is that of Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s. The rookie running back out of LSU sat out the Divisional Round Game because of a hip injury, though he appears to be trending towards an active status on Sunday after appearing in practice on Wednesday.

Read: 2021 AFC Championship: Bills vs Chiefs


The Bills are aching to avenge their loss to Kansas City earlier this season. They will get another shot at the Chiefs after surviving the Divisional Round by beating Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. The Bills’ defense was fantastic in disarming the explosive attack of the Ravens, as Baltimore was limited to just three points. The Bills only had 206 total yards in their loss to Kansas City, with their backfield rushing for only 84 yards on 23 attempts. The Bills’ rushing attack was also not much of a factor in the Ravens game in which Buffalo only had 32 rushing yards on 16 carries. The Bills might have to increase the load of Devin Singletary to open up things more for the team’s passing game.

Bills vs. Chiefs Betting Trends

  • The Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as the underdog.
  • The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record.
  • The OVER is 11-3-1 in the Bills’ last 15 games after an SU win.
  • The Chiefs are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games as the home team.
  • The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Buffalo.
  • The UNDER is 4-1 in the Chiefs’ last 5 games as the home favorite.

2021 NFC Championship Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers

When: Sunday, January 24, 2021 | 6:40 PM ET

Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay


Radio: Tampa Bay/Green Bay

Live Stream: NFL Network

2021 NFC Championship Odds: Chiefs (-3.5) / O/U line: 51.0

Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs is something football fans have longed for a long time, and now they are going to get their wish when these two future Hall of Famers square off on Sunday for the NFC title. The Bucs reserved their seats for Sunday’s game by defeating the Washington Football Team, 31-23, in the Wild Card Round and the New Orleans Saints in the Divisional Round, 30-20. As much as the story for Tampa Bay revolves mostly around Brady, the real hero for the Bucs in the Saints game was their defense that clobbered Drew Brees and company. Brees got intercepted thrice while wide receiver Michael Thomas was held to zero catches. That same defense was also responsible for making Rodgers look human in Tampa Bay’s 38-10 home win over Green Bay in Week 6. Rodgers got intercepted two times and kissed the ground four times for a loss of 42 yards in that game.

Read: NFC Championship Preview: Buccaneers vs Packers


Granted that Rodgers was contained by Tampa Bay in the two teams’ first faceoff, the fact remains that he is among the best quarterbacks of all time playing at one of his best seasons ever. Rodgers, a strong candidate for MVP honors, had 4,299 passing yards and 48 touchdowns with just five interceptions in the regular season. Against the Los Angeles Rams’ stout defense in the Divisional Round, Rodgers went 23 of 36 for 296 passing yards and two touchdowns while not committing any turnover. The Packers’ defensive front also stepped up by sacking Jared Goff four times, resulting in a loss of 26 yards for the Rams. There’s pressure for Green Bay’s defense to get to Brady after failing to record a single sack in Week 6, but the Packers might have to worry more about the Bucs’ run game that had 158 rushing yards and two touchdowns that week.

Buccaneers vs. Packers Betting Trends

  • The Buccaneers are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • The Buccaneers are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games.
  • The Buccaneers are 8-2 SU in their last 10 road games.
  • The Packers are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • The Packers are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games.
  • The Packers are 9-1 SU in their last 10 home games against the Buccaneers.

2021 NFL Conference Championship Round Final Expert Picks

Much is unknown about the availability of Patrick Mahomes, as of this writing. If Mahomes can’t go, it’ll definitely be a huge plus for the Bills, who would go from planning around how to stop a former league MVP to trying to stop Chad Henne. But Andy Reid is a great coach. He can find creative ways to surprise Buffalo’s defense even if Kansas City will end up having Henne under center. For one, the Chiefs look like they are having Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who should boost Kansas City’s rushing attack against Buffalo’s defense that gave up 150 rushing yards to Baltimore last week.

The cold weather at Lambeau Field may not matter a bit to Tom Brady, who’s played under all types of weather conditions throughout his legendary career. With Tampa Bay’s defense dominating in the playoffs and having some sort of a psychological advantage over Rodgers thanks to the Bucs’ win in Week 6, Brady and company could be looking at a straight-up win this weekend. Then again, the Packers have been tough to beat at home. In fact, they are 8-1 straight up in nine games at Lambeau Field so far this season.

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*All stated odds are subject to change without prior notice.

READ MORE: 2021 NFL Playoffs Divisional Round Odds, Preview & Picks