The Buffalo Bills throw down with the New Orleans Saints on Thursday in the NFL’s final game on Thanksgiving Day. The Saints are desperate to end a 3-game losing streak while the Bills are in a fight with the New England Patriots for first place in the AFC East. Check out the NFL odds, analysis, and a free pick for Bills at Saints.
Bills vs. Saints Game Information
- When: Thursday, Nov. 25 at 8:20 pm ET
- Where: Ceasars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
- TV: NBC
- Radio: WGR 550 AM (Bills) / WWL 870 (Saints)
- Live Stream:NFL Game Pass
- NFL Odds: Bills (-6) / Saints (+6)
Why Bet on the Buffalo Bills?
Led by quarterback Josh Allen, the Bills are one of the highest-scoring teams in the NFL. Even after losses to Jacksonville and Indianapolis, Buffalo averages 29.2 points per, ranking second in the league. The Bills average 391.5 yards per game, ranking fifth in the NFL.
The yardage per game breaks down to 272.9 passing yards per and 118.8 rushing yards each game. Buffalo has committed 14 turnovers, which is their Achilles heel. If the Bills turn the ball over Thursday night, they could be in some trouble.
Although the Colts blasted Buffalo 41-15 in NFL Week 11, the Bills maintain one of the best defenses in the NFL. Buffalo’s D allows just 17.6 points per game, ranking second to AFC East rival New England. Opponents average 283.7 yards per game versus the Bills. The total allowed ranks first in the league.
Buffalo ranks ninth in rushing yards allowed per game, 101.9, and second in passing yards per, 181.8. The Bills’ are most impressive when it comes to takeaways. Buffalo has forced 22 turnovers, which ranks second in the NFL only to the Colts.
Why Bet on the New Orleans Saints?
When Drew Brees was under center, the Saints fielded one of the highest-scoring offenses in the NFL. Without Drew Brees, the offense is okay, but not great. New Orleans averages 25.1 points per game. The Saints are a run first team. New Orleans rushes for 117.9 yards per, ranking thirteenth. The Saints throw for 203.4 yards per, which ranks twenty-sixth. New Orleans has turned the ball over 11 times this season. That’s not terrible but it’s not great, either.
The Saints defense ranks third against the rush. Opponents average 89.8 yards per game on the ground. Opposing teams have found much more success passing the ball. New Orleans allows 252.2 passing yards per game, ranking twenty-second in the NFL. Recently, teams have had success scoring against the Saints defense. Atlanta scored 27. The Titans scored 23. The Eagles dropped 41. Because teams have found the end zone, New Orleans now allows an average of 21.8 points per.
Bills vs. Saints Betting Trends
- Bills are 4-0 ATS int ehir last 4 games in Week 12.
- Buffalo is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.
- Under is 8-1 in Buffalo’s last 9 games following a straight up loss.
- Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
- New Orleans is 3-7 ATS versus a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in New Orleans’ last 4 games.
Bills vs. Saints Expert Betting Predictions
Both teams are struggling, which is why it will be difficult to find the winner straight up, much less against the spread. Based on the stats, the Bills should roll. But Buffalo has lost 2 of their last 3 road games straight up. One of the losses was downright pathetic, 6-9 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Pressure appears to have gotten to Buffalo, who played about as bad as they have the past couple of seasons in the loss to the Colts.
For New Orleans, the issue appears to be more of making mistakes. The Saints are banged up big time, but they might be healthier in Week 12 than they have been in a long time. LT Terron Armstead and RT Ryan Ramczyk are listed as questionable. If they play, the Saints will have most of their starting offensive line intact. Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara are also listed as questionable. If one or the other plays, the Saints could be in line for the upset victory.
One other thing to note is that New Orleans handed Taysom Hill a huge contract that could be worth up to $95 million should Hill start at quarterback. Don’t be surprised if Sean Payton starts Hill at QB on Thursday night. Starting Hill means Payton can call more plays than he could with Trevor Simian. If that happens, Buffalo may not adjust.
All told, the line gives too much credit to the Bills. Buffalo is a much different team than the one that beat the Chiefs 38-20 in Week 5. Taking a shot on the Saints’ moneyline makes sense.
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*All odds stated are subject to change without prior notice.