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Patriots vs. Bills 2022 NFL Wild Card Odds, Preview & Pick

By Hank Blaine

The AFC East rival New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills split their two regular-season meetings and the rubber match comes in a Wild-Card game Saturday night in Buffalo with the winner likely headed to AFC top-seeded Tennessee in the divisional round.

In Week 13 on a Monday night, the Patriots upset the Bills 14-10 in Buffalo on a very windy, snowy, cold night. The conditions were so bad that New England quarterback Mac Jones attempted just three passes and completed two for 19 yards. The Pats ran the ball 46 times for 222 yards and a TD. Nick Folk hit both field goal attempts from 34 and 41 yards with the wind at his back, and the Patriots defense limited the Bills to a season-low 230 yards offense. Miles Bryant sealed the victory by batting down Josh Allen’s pass at the goal line with Buffalo facing fourth-and-14 at New England’s 18 with 1:55 remaining.

In the rematch in Week 16 in New England, the Bills won 33-21. Josh Allen threw for three touchdowns, Isaiah McKenzie had a career-high 11 catches and Micah Hyde made two interceptions. Allen was 30 of 47 for 314 yards and had 64 rushing yards on 12 tries. The Bills never trailed and played one of their cleanest offensive games of the season, with no punts or turnovers. Jones wasn’t good, completing 14 of 32 passes for 145 yards and two interceptions.

NitroBetting presents a comprehensive preview of the Patriots vs. Bills game down below. Find event details, team and player stats, the latest NFL betting odds, trends, and predictions.

Patriots vs. Bills Game Information

READ MORE: 49ers vs. Cowboys 2022 NFL Wild Card Odds, Preview & Pick

Why Bet on the New England Patriots?

Patriots left tackle Isaiah Wynn did not practice Wednesday and is in doubt for Saturday. Wynn went down with an ankle injury in the Pats’ Week 18 loss to the Dolphins. Justin Herron took over Wynn’s spot in the lineup last week and will likely start if Wynn remains sidelined. Safety Kyle Dugger (hand) also is in question. Defensive tackle Christian Barmore should play despite suffering an injury at the end of the Patriots’ 33-24 loss to the Dolphins in Week 18. Barmore’s MRI came back clean after the injury.

The Patriots placed defensive back Jalen Mills on the Reserve/COVID-19 list on Tuesday, putting the veteran’s status in question for Saturday’s game. Mills missed just one game this season, Week 5 against the Texans with a hamstring injury, but has otherwise been a solid presence across from J.C. Jackson this season. If Mills is unable to play it will be a significant blow to a Patriots secondary that has been thinned with Jonathan Jones on injured reserve, as well as Shaun Wade on the Reserve/COVID-19 list.

Why Bet on the Buffalo Bills?

Saturday’s game will mark the first-ever in the Wild-Card round featuring the NFL’s No. 1 and No. 2 scoring defenses. Buffalo’s defense ranks first-overall in the league in DVOA but their rush defense ranks just 11th, while they’re 13th in rushing yards allowed. New England had success running the ball in Buffalo in the first meeting. The Bills are the first team since the 2012 Steelers to lead the NFL in total defense without a player selected to the Pro Bowl.

This emergence of the Bills running game late in the season has been able to keep the offense more balanced and was a factor in their four straight wins to end the season. From Weeks 9-13, Devin Singletary had 41 rushing attempts. After the Week 13 loss to the Patriots, his carries went up to 80 in the last five games.

“I think when you’re able to put the ball on the ground and be productive, especially on first and second downs, it helps your offense,” Bills’ center Mitch Morse said. “And then if you’re being one-dimensional or you can’t really run the ball, it just opens the playbook for these coordinators to bring all sorts of stuff that offensive linemen hate to see. So do quarterbacks. So even the threat of run helps.”

The only previous postseason matchup between these teams was an AFL divisional round game in 1963 — a Boston Patriots 26-3 win over the Bills.

Patriots vs. Bills Betting Trends

  • Patriots are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 playoff road games.
  • Patriots are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games following a straight up loss.
  • The total went over in 9 of New England’s last 13 games.
  • Bills are 11-5-2 ATS in the last 18 games as a home favorite.
  • Bills are 1-3-1 ATS in the last 5 games following a ATS win.
  • The total went over in 7 of Buffalo’s last 9 games played on a Saturday.

Patriots vs. Bills Expert Betting Predictions

2022 NFL Wild Card Pick: Bills 20, Patriots 17

Check out our latest sports betting guides for the 2022 NFL Regular Season. Stay tuned for more Football previews and articles and don’t forget to check out the latest football betting odds at our online Bitcoin sportsbook.

*All odds stated are subject to change without prior notice.