Patriots vs. Falcons 2021 NFL Week 11 Odds, Preview and Pick

By Hank Blaine • November 18, 2021

On Thursday night, the New England Patriots head to Atlanta as hot as can be. The Pats are on a four game winning streak. Not only has the Patriots won four in a row, but they’ve covered in all four. While New England has been hot, the Atlanta Falcons head into this game after their worst performance of the season. Will the ATL step it up? Or are Patriot backers looking at another win SU and ATS? Check out the NFL betting odds, analysis, and free picks for the Patriots vs. Falcons.

Patriots vs. Falcons Game Information

When: Thursday, Nov. 18 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
TV: FOX
Radio: 98.5 The Sports Hub (Patriots) / 92.9 The Game FM (Falcons)
Live Stream:NFL Game Pass
NFL Odds: Patriots (-7) / Falcons (+7)

Why Bet on the New England Patriots?

New England’s offense has gotten better with each subsequent week. After their 45-3 victory against the Cleveland Browns last Sunday, the Patriots pushed their average scored per game to 27.5, ranking sixth in the nation. The Patriots average 356.2 yards per game. So it’s not like New England is overwhelming teams by amassing a ton of yards. Instead, New England scores touchdowns when they get in the red zone.

New England ranks sixth in total yards allowed. The Pats give up 328.0 per game. Opponents average 220.1 passing yards per. The lack of yardage has translated to the second best team in the league at preventing scores. The Patriots allow 17.7 points per contest. Almost as important? The Pats have created 17 takeaways, which ranks fourth in the NFL. New England’s D has become one of the top units in the league.

Why Bet on the Atlanta Falcons?

Atlanta averages just 19.8 points per game. But when Matt Ryan is on, the Falcons can put up 30 in the blink of an eye. Ryan to tight-end rookie Kyle Pitts has become a decent combo. In his first season, Pitts has 40 catches for 606 yards and a TD.

Atlanta must get more out of their rushing attack, which averages 82.9 yards each game. Doing so would make the Ryan to Pitts connection even more formidable. Just like last season, Atlanta’s defense ranks near the bottom. The Falcons rank thirty-first in points allowed per game, giving up a staggering 29.2 each contest.

A closer look, though, reveals the defense has, for the most part, played well. The ATL allows just 368 yards per game. The biggest issue? Turnover ratio. Ryan and the offense have turned it over 13 times. The Falcons have taken the ball away just 8 times.

Patriots vs. Falcons Betting Trends

Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games.
New England is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Over is 5-1 in New England’s last 6 games.
Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Atlanta is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.
Under is 5-0 in Atlanta’s last 5 Thursday games.

Patriots vs. Falcons Expert Betting Predictions

This should be one of Week 11’s easiest bets. The Atlanta Falcons shouldn’t come close to covering the spread. Although Matt Ryan and Kyle Pitts have developed a decent connection, Pitts’ per catch average is just 4.4 yards. That won’t cut it against one of the top pass defenses in the NFL. More importantly, the Falcons turn the ball over like it’s their job. The Patriots are great at forcing turnovers, which means Ryan will be at a disadvantage starting from the ATL’s first series.

Another reason to like the Patriots? Rookie quarterback Mac Jones has a 4-to-1 TD to INT ratio in the Patriots last 3 games. New England is an overtime loss away from Dallas from having won 5 straight. As it stands now, the Pats are just a game behind the Bills for the AFC East lead. Don’t expect Belichick’s squad to falter against an inferior team. New England wins and covers.

Check out our latest sports betting guides for the 2021 NFL Regular Season. Stay tuned for more Football previews and articles and don’t forget to check out the latest Football betting odds at our online Bitcoin sportsbook.

*All odds stated are subject to change without prior notice.