Steelers vs. Chargers 2021 NFL Week 11 Odds, Analysis and Prediction

Important game in the AFC playoff picture on Sunday night this week as the Pittsburgh Steelers – who should have QB Ben Roethlisberger available – visit the Los Angeles Chargers. The winner holds a key head-to-head tiebreaker.

The Chargers and Steelers meet for the 32nd time in the regular season and they have split the past four. Each of those have been decided by seven or fewer points, including the 2018 Sunday Night Football win by three points that saw the Bolts overcome a 16-point deficit in the second half in Pittsburgh, one of the most shocking losses in Steelers history. Pittsburgh leads 23-8.

Check out the NFL betting odds, analysis, and free picks for the Steelers vs. Chargers.

Steelers vs. Chargers Game Information

READ MORE: Patriots vs. Falcons 2021 NFL Week 11 Odds, Preview and Pick

Why Bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers?

The big question for Sunday is whether Pittsburgh will have starting QB Ben Roethlisberger as he missed last Sunday’s ugly 16-16 tie with Detroit after testing positive for COVID. Big Ben is vaccinated but needs to be symptom-free for 48 hours and two negative tests taken 24 hours apart to exit the league’s COVID-19 protocols.

He must be on the 53-man roster by 4 p.m. ET on Saturday, but the Steelers could opt to put him on the active roster before he exits protocols. There is an open spot on the roster, and if he doesn’t meet the negative test requirements, he would simply be inactive for the game. Big Ben is planning like he will play – he attended meetings virtually this week. If he can’t, it would be Mason Rudolph again.

With last week’s tie, there have been 14 overtime games this season entering Week 1, tied with the 1983, 2002, 2003 and 2015 seasons for the second-most overtime games at this point of a season all-time. Only 1995 (18 overtime games) had more.

Pittsburgh’s two best defensive players, linebacker TJ Watt and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick are also in question. Fitzpatrick landed on the COVID list early this week so probably won’t. He has 64 combined tackles and a forced fumble this year. Watt was injured last Sunday and hasn’t practiced as of Thursday. He has 12.5 sacks and three forced fumbles on the year.

One of the highlights of the Steelers offense is rookie Najee Harris. The former Alabama running back has totaled 963 yards through nine games with six touchdowns. He’s a Rookie of the Year candidate. Starting WR Chase Claypool missed last week’s game injured and is iffy for Sunday. Guard Trai Turner, who didn’t practice on Wednesday with an ankle injury, was a full participant on Thursday.

Why Bet on the Los Angeles Chargers?

The Chargers might be without arguably their best defensive player in end Joey Bosa as he’s on the COVID list. Bosa was determined to be in close contact with defensive lineman Jerry Tillery, who also was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list Tuesday after testing positive. As long as he continues to test negative and stays symptom-free, he would be eligible to return to the team Saturday. Bosa is tied for the league lead with three strip sacks and has 5.5 sacks this season. He has a sack in two straight games and three in the past four.

LA quarterback Justin Herbert has 6,881 passing yards and 50 touchdown passes in his career and is scheduled to make his 25th career start in Week 11. With 119 passing yards on Sunday, he will become the fourth player ever to record 7,000 passing yards in his first 25 career starts, joining Patrick Mahomes (8,007 passing yards) and Hall of Famers Kurt Warner (7,333) and Dan Marino (7,054).

With three touchdown passes on Sunday night, Herbert will surpass Tony Romo (52 touchdown passes) for the fourth-most ever by a quarterback in his first 25 career starts. Herbert was added to the Chargers’ Thursday injury report with an oblique injury but practiced in full.

Steelers vs. Chargers Betting Trends

  • Steelers are 34-15-2 ATS in the last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Steelers are 33-15-3 ATS in the last 51 games as an underdog.
  • The total went under in 6 of Pittsburgh’s last 9 games.
  • Chargers are 18-39-1 ATS in the last 58 home games.
  • Chargers are 5-12-1 ATS in the last 18 games as a home favorite.
  • The total went under in 10 of LA Chargers’ last 15 games.

Steelers vs. Chargers Expert Betting Predictions

2021 NFL Week 11 Pick: Chargers 26, Steelers 23

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*All odds stated are subject to change without prior notice.